Obama has biggest lead yet!

[silverscreenselect]

He's apparently also got some real world campaign experience. He has forcefully argued that the mainstream media has missed the story of the superiority of Obama's ground game to that of McCain. According to Nate, this can be responsible for as much as a five point advantage on Election Day. --Bob

One of the reasons McCain picked Palin was the enthusiasm she brings to the coservative base. A lot of Republicans were preparing, at best, to grit their teeth and vote for McCain. They've gotten very energized this week, even moreso by the attempted trash job the media and Obamablogs have trotted out on Palin. That's going to go a long way towards evening out the ground game come November.

[5LD]

Living in Ohio now, I can tell you I have already been contacted five times to work for Obama. These people are motivated and organized!

[NellyLunatic1980]

Living in Ohio now, I can tell you I have already been contacted five times to work for Obama. These people are motivated and organized!

Pollster.com Polls Average in Ohio:

Obama--44.2%
McCain--42.5%
Undecided--13.3%

That is a huge chunk of Ohio voters who are undecided. No doubt that Obama will be courting them hard over the next two months. If he wins Ohio, it will be a landslide victory for him in the Electoral College.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

Living in Ohio now, I can tell you I have already been contacted five times to work for Obama. These people are motivated and organized!

Pollster.com Polls Average in Ohio:

Obama--44.2%
McCain--42.5%
Undecided--13.3%

That is a huge chunk of Ohio voters who are undecided. No doubt that Obama will be courting them hard over the next two months. If he wins Ohio, it will be a landslide victory for him in the Electoral College.

That is a huge chunk, but I still think it will come down to who does a better job with their base. Early voting starts Sept 30, and there's an 8-day-or-so window when you can register and vote on the same day. I see that as a huge difference-maker.

[NellyLunatic1980]

Living in Ohio now, I can tell you I have already been contacted five times to work for Obama. These people are motivated and organized!

Pollster.com Polls Average in Ohio:

Obama--44.2%
McCain--42.5%
Undecided--13.3%

That is a huge chunk of Ohio voters who are undecided. No doubt that Obama will be courting them hard over the next two months. If he wins Ohio, it will be a landslide victory for him in the Electoral College.

That is a huge chunk, but I still think it will come down to who does a better job with their base. Early voting starts Sept 30, and there's an 8-day-or-so window when you can register and vote on the same day. I see that as a huge difference-maker.

The other thing that could make a big impact in the Ohio vote is how many people in the 18-30 demographic turn up at the polls. People in the 18-30 age bracket typically have only cellphones (and do not have landlines) and therefore never get polled. I have a landline, but I use it only for Internet access and local calls, so I never get the poll call.

If the youth show up by the thousands on November 4 the same way that they showed up during the primary and at all of the Obama and Clinton campaign rallies, then who knows how big Obama's margin of victory could be--not just in Ohio, but in other Bush states?

[TheCalvinator24]

Pollster.com Polls Average in Ohio:

Obama--44.2%
McCain--42.5%
Undecided--13.3%

That is a huge chunk of Ohio voters who are undecided. No doubt that Obama will be courting them hard over the next two months. If he wins Ohio, it will be a landslide victory for him in the Electoral College.

That is a huge chunk, but I still think it will come down to who does a better job with their base. Early voting starts Sept 30, and there's an 8-day-or-so window when you can register and vote on the same day. I see that as a huge difference-maker.

The other thing that could make a big impact in the Ohio vote is how many people in the 18-30 demographic turn up at the polls. People in the 18-30 age bracket typically have only cellphones (and do not have landlines) and therefore never get polled. I have a landline, but I use it only for Internet access and local calls, so I never get the poll call.

If the youth show up by the thousands on November 4 the same way that they showed up during the primary and at all of the Obama and Clinton campaign rallies, then who knows how big Obama's margin of victory could be--not just in Ohio, but in other Bush states?

I seem to recall that it was predicted that John Kerry was going to get historic, unprecedented youth vote. Didn't happen. I wouldn't hold my breath about it happening this year, either.

[nitrah55]

It has been documented at least a couple of places that the Ohio Republican party was prepared to effectively sit on its hands for McCain.

It may be McCain picked Palin solely- certainly largely- to get the Ohio Republicans in the game.

[silverscreenselect]

The other thing that could make a big impact in the Ohio vote is how many people in the 18-30 demographic turn up at the polls. People in the 18-30 age bracket typically have only cellphones (and do not have landlines) and therefore never get polled. I have a landline, but I use it only for Internet access and local calls, so I never get the poll call.

And people in assisted living centers may not have phones and people who work nights may not be available to take calls etc. etc. etc.

Polling is not an exact science but the reliability of polls depends upon how closely the sample chosen reflects the underlying demographics in relevent ways. Pollsters are aware of the cellphone phenomenon (which isn't all in favor of one candidate or another) and will try to take that in account.

The fact is that most people won't get polled in most states. From the state of Kentucky web site, there were 2.8 million registered voters for the 2007 governor's election. Figure maybe 3 million registered voters there now. A typical poll talks to about 500 people. If there were 100 polls for the general election in the state and they all talked to completely different individuals, that means that means that about 1/3 of 1% of the total number of registered voters would be polled. So it's no surprise you haven't heard from anyone yet.

FWIW I was polled before the Georgia Democratic primary.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

That is a huge chunk, but I still think it will come down to who does a better job with their base. Early voting starts Sept 30, and there's an 8-day-or-so window when you can register and vote on the same day. I see that as a huge difference-maker.

The other thing that could make a big impact in the Ohio vote is how many people in the 18-30 demographic turn up at the polls. People in the 18-30 age bracket typically have only cellphones (and do not have landlines) and therefore never get polled. I have a landline, but I use it only for Internet access and local calls, so I never get the poll call.

If the youth show up by the thousands on November 4 the same way that they showed up during the primary and at all of the Obama and Clinton campaign rallies, then who knows how big Obama's margin of victory could be--not just in Ohio, but in other Bush states?

I seem to recall that it was predicted that John Kerry was going to get historic, unprecedented youth vote. Didn't happen. I wouldn't hold my breath about it happening this year, either.

I agree that counting on the youth vote is generally a dubious proposition. That's exactly why I see early voting (especially the part that is before the registration deadline) as a big deal. It makes it easier to turn out the vote. For everyone, but perhaps especially the young vote.

As I understand it, whether you've voted or not is a matter of public record, which would allow much better targeting (since there's no need to waste time on people who've already voted). Conversely, if you've already voted, you're a lot less likely to get those annoying get-out-and-vote calls.