Quest(s) Accomplished

[Vails]

Hi everybody! Sorry I've been such a stranger. Explanations follow within some announcements.

I don't know if you remember me mentioning a couple of years ago that I was curtailing my posting volume in order to pursue a secret quest. The quest was to find a job for my wife Issa. She had quit her management job to stay home and get our family healthy again. That sacrifice resolved a whole lot of ills, both physical and otherwise, that were plaguing us during that time. But it was a slow recovery, and what we foresaw as a six-month hiatus became one year, and then two, turning us from savers to borrowers along the way. I took it upon myself to conduct Issa's job search for her, assuming her identity all the way up to the interview stage. Looooooooooong story short, she's back in a management position. Not the same level as before, but it's a good fit for her.

At the same time, I expanded the quest to include myself, and set out to get a management position of my own. I made a lateral move from my comfortable copy-editing job to a more hectic, customer-driven research job two years ago, for the purposes of learning more about the business and expanding my experience. It has, however, kept me away from the Bored, as you know. Anyway, as of today, I can say officially that the extra work paid off, and I am now my company's Custom Research Manager.

So I'm hoping this might mean I'll be able to post more often...Because all managers do is just sit around and tell others what to do, right? (Bad omen: my only full-time employee called me two hours ago and, I am not making this up, says she has a repetitive strain injury and is unable to work for a whole week at least. And since when is this my problem? ...Oh. yeah.) The promotion at least will help us crawl out of the debt-crevice we've dug ourselves.

Also a potential help: I am flying out to LA next week to be on the syndicated version of Deal or No Deal. Yes, I'm paying my own way. Again. I KNOW. But hey, maybe I'll get lucky enough to break even from my four trips out to Cali for this and for 1 vs. 100. (The DoND folks called me based on my tricked-out application to 1 vs. 100, so that's the connection.) Maybe I'll get even luckier. Even if I don't, it still has value as a story to tell.

Regardless, thanks, you all, for being here. Hope to stay closer in touch moving forward.

P.S. I'm doing my usual redeye flight back home, so I won't have time to see you California BBs, I'm sorry to say. Next time?

[MarleysGh0st]

Double congratulations, Vails!

Also a potential help: I am flying out to LA next week to be on the syndicated version of Deal or No Deal. Yes, I'm paying my own way. Again. I KNOW. But hey, maybe I'll get lucky enough to break even from my four trips out to Cali for this and for 1 vs. 100. (The DoND folks called me based on my tricked-out application to 1 vs. 100, so that's the connection.) Maybe I'll get even luckier. Even if I don't, it still has value as a story to tell.

Flying to LA to tape an episode of DoND or to audition for it? If the latter--triple congratulations!

[silvercamaro]

Good luck on DoND, Vails, and congratulations for all the good news on the job front(s).

[ulysses5019]

Double congratulations, Vails!

Also a potential help: I am flying out to LA next week to be on the syndicated version of Deal or No Deal. Yes, I'm paying my own way. Again. I KNOW. But hey, maybe I'll get lucky enough to break even from my four trips out to Cali for this and for 1 vs. 100. (The DoND folks called me based on my tricked-out application to 1 vs. 100, so that's the connection.) Maybe I'll get even luckier. Even if I don't, it still has value as a story to tell.

Flying to LA to tape an episode of DoND or to audition for it? If the latter--triple congratulations!

He already auditioned. He will be on the show as a case model. I hear he has legs like anniecamaro....except more manly.

[TheConfessor]

Good luck with DOND. Glad to hear things are going well for you and your family.

[Catfish]

Glad all is well.
Love,

[marrymeflyfree]

Woo hoo!

Congrats to Issa, to you, and much luck with Howie. And remember...fist-bump, no shake.

[hermillion]

So glad to see you back! And congrats on the good job news.

Have a blast with Howie, and may you come home with a case full of cash!

[Vails]

Thanks everyone!

Why no shake? I've heard he's a germophobe. Is that why?

Uly's right about me being a case model. Don't know if it's old news here already, but in the syndicated version, the (prospective) contestants are the models, and only one of them per show will get chosen by random to actually play the game in the metaphorical hot seat with Howie. If after a five-show taping session, you're not chosen, then you're done, with nothing more than the experience of opening cases for others. Hopefully I'll be in the back row where my anniecamaro-esque legs are not an issue.

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

[AnnieCamaro]

Hopefully I'll be in the back row where my anniecamaro-esque legs are not an issue.

Hey! These are nice legs. Dance with the legs that took you to the Prom.

I hope you get picked, Mr. Vails.

/:P\

[MarleysGh0st]

Why no shake? I've heard he's a germophobe. Is that why?

That's why.

Somebody linked to a blog report of the syndicated version, so we have heard of the new procedure. Good luck being one of those random contestants who get the chance to play. I presume they're not paying your expenses for the trip?

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

Pick the top value case for your own, then open the low value cases first.

Seriously, it's all luck. But take the time to do a rough calculation of the expected value by totaling up the value of the remaining cases (you only need to concern yourself with the high value ones, for approximation) divided by the number of cases left. If it's like the primetime show, the banker's offer starts far, far below the expected value and finally rises to that when there are two or three cases left.

On average (talking about the mean, here), contestants would win more by sticking to their case to the bitter end, but that would produce a few big winners and lots of contestants with chump change, so most end up taking an offer. What you decide depends on your risk threshold.

[MarleysGh0st]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

Continuing my advice...after a passing reference to the irony of a newbie who apparently hasn't watched the primetime version or participated in the Bored discussions thereof becoming a contestant...

It has been suggested here that the spread between the expected value and the banker's offer is the "insurance premium" you'd pay to avoid ending up with one of the tiny amounts. For instance, if the expected value is $100K and the banker is offering $45K, he's asking you to pay $55K in insurance to to be stuck with (say) $1. You'd probably find it easy to decide that that's expensive insurance.

Later in the game, perhaps the expected value is still $100K but the banker is now offering $95K. Now the insurance premium is only $5K and you might find that reasonable. Or you might want to continue gambling, say, on a 50/50 choice between $1 and $200K, in which case you don't need no steenkin' insurance.

[jsuchard]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

[ulysses5019]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

Greed is good!!!

[TheConfessor]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

On the prime time show (last I checked, but it's been a long time), the initial offers were far below fair value, but as you got closer to the end, the predictably became pretty close to fair value. If you know that's how the banker plays the game, then it's pretty obvious that you should play until you get close to the end, then see if you were lucky or unlucky with your picks.

For the syndie version, you don't know if the banker will follow the same algorithm. I've heard reports that in the UK (I think) the banker tends to give very insulting offers, even toward the end, and might even penalize you if he doesn't like your attitude, or whatever. So it would be very helpful to you if you are not the first person chosen, or if your tape date is not the first date of the season, so you can get reports from earlier contestants and you'll know what to expect from the banker. You can't just assume that he will act the same as he does in prime time.

Also, I'm not real clear on how the contestants are chosen. I know there's a group of 26(?) hopefuls, each with a briefcase. Does the previous contestant's actions determine who the next contestant will be? If your 5 of 26 odds of being selected depend on someone choosing you (and not just luck), then maybe you need to do something to make yourself stand out, in your clothing, mannerisms, etc. If I'm way off base about this, then never mind.

Good luck!

[Bob Juch]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

Greed is good!!!

Chocolate is better!

[ulysses5019]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

On the prime time show (last I checked, but it's been a long time), the initial offers were far below fair value, but as you got closer to the end, the predictably became pretty close to fair value. If you know that's how the banker plays the game, then it's pretty obvious that you should play until you get close to the end, then see if you were lucky or unlucky with your picks.

For the syndie version, you don't know if the banker will follow the same algorithm. I've heard reports that in the UK (I think) the banker tends to give very insulting offers, even toward the end, and might even penalize you if he doesn't like your attitude, or whatever. So it would be very helpful to you if you are not the first person chosen, or if your tape date is not the first date of the season, so you can get reports from earlier contestants and you'll know what to expect from the banker. You can't just assume that he will act the same as he does in prime time.

Also, I'm not real clear on how the contestants are chosen. I know there's a group of 26(?) hopefuls, each with a briefcase. Does the previous contestant's actions determine who the next contestant will be? If your 5 of 26 odds of being selected depend on someone choosing you (and not just luck), then maybe you need to do something to make yourself stand out, in your clothing, mannerisms, etc. If I'm way off base about this, then never mind.

Good luck!

There are 22 case carriers (contestants) at the beginning of each show. One is randomly chosen via a bingo like ball selection. The game ensues with that one contestant filling the entire half show. The next day, the remaining 21 players are joined by one from the green room. They get new cases and play another game. The original 22 and the additional 4 play the entire week. Then a new set of 22 stat off the next week. Top prize is apparently $500,000.

[JBillyGirl]

Congratulations on your new jobs! Can I still ask you copy editing questions?

Best of luck next week on DoND. All my appendages are duly crossed for a big payout!

[littlebeast13]

Any words of wisdom or advice on how to approach the game? I am very much a newbie.

With the dollar amounts in the regular primetime game, the expected value before you even start to play is a bit above $100,000. So, to my way of thinking, you have "won" this game if you get a six-figure offer from the banker.

If I were to get an offer of anywhere between $90k-$150k, I would seriously consider taking it rather than continuing the game (barring the continued presence of nearly all of the larger dollar values). The difference between going home with, say, $1000 vs. $100,000 would have much more of an affect on my life than the difference between $100,000 and $200,000. Don't be greedy!

Greed is good!!!

No, GREEN is good!

And on the anniversary of Wacky Wednesday, no less....

lb13

[Vails]

Thanks for the advice and congrats everyone!

It seems like what's going to be difficult is figuring out what to compare the offers to. Shall I compare it to the zero that I started out with? to the previous offer? to the possible treasure that's in my case? to the most likely average number that's in my case? to the money I spent flying out to LA twice to be a part of all this weirdness? I'm not sure what perspective I'll carry in with me, and whether that will carry over if I get a chance to play the game.

What's interesting is that from what I've seen, nobody ever takes the best offer, because as long as the offers keep going up, it doesn't make sense to stop playing. You could look at a board with three high ones and two low ones left and say, "OK, there's a 60% chance that my next offer will decrease. The odds say I should sell now." But because that also means that there's a 60% chance that you've got a high one in your case, so why sell? Unfortunately, you don't know when the offer will go down until it does, and then you just have to be happy with what you're getting. So everybody loses something, and everybody wins something, and that brings me back to perspective. It's kind of a kick, actually.

I'm kind of glad it's not going to be the models holding the cases. Don't want ShallowVails skewing my vibes.

[MarleysGh0st]

It seems like what's going to be difficult is figuring out what to compare the offers to. Shall I compare it to the zero that I started out with? to the previous offer? to the possible treasure that's in my case? to the most likely average number that's in my case? to the money I spent flying out to LA twice to be a part of all this weirdness? I'm not sure what perspective I'll carry in with me, and whether that will carry over if I get a chance to play the game.

What's your threshold for risk toleration (taking into account your wife's threshold)? My previous comments discussed expected value; as long as the banker's offer is less that EV, it's a good gamble to continue going on. I recognize that you might not be able to afford (financially or emotionally) to take that gamble, but I hope you don't go to LA with the hopes of just winning back your travel expenses.

What's interesting is that from what I've seen, nobody ever takes the best offer, because as long as the offers keep going up, it doesn't make sense to stop playing.

I don't think that's true. The offers could keep rising until you have one big amount and one small amount left, when you might decide taking the sure thing offer is better than being stuck with the small case. OTOH, many contestants eliminate the last big case, which is where you see subsequent offers never matching the best one.

[peacock2121]

Not sure when the DoND thingie is happening - good luck, have fun, win money.

I am sure how I would feel about my husband getting me a job. Hoping your wife did not feel as I would.