Arizona results

[Bob Juch]

The re-election polls had all offices about 50/50. If the results are from in-person ballots, which tend to be Republican, then there's going to be a Democratic sweep as they're ahead by a considerable margin. If the mail-in ballots lean to Democrats, those margins will go even further up for the Dems.

Tue Nov 8 - 8:36 pm
Governor
4% of Precincts reporting
D Katie Hobbs 55% 606,124
R Kari Lake 45% 493,079

Secretary of State
4% of Precincts reporting
D Adrian Fontes 58% 626,284
R Mark Finchem 42% 458,156

[silverscreenselect]

All the states count votes differently, but I've noticed a trend that Democrats jump out to early leads as early and/or mail-in votes are counted, then Republican same day votes get counted quickly in the rural areas, bringing down the margins or putting them in the lead, then the same-day vote in the larger cities gets counted, bumping up Democratic totals again.

Steve Kornacki has been doing a good job in the close races of showing how candidates are doing vs. Trump/Biden in 2020 and also how much of the vote remains in which counties. That gives a better idea of how the race stands in some of these elections. Based on this, Fetterman seems to be in very good shape in PA.

[Bob Juch]

All the states count votes differently, but I've noticed a trend that Democrats jump out to early leads as early and/or mail-in votes are counted, then Republican same day votes get counted quickly in the rural areas, bringing down the margins or putting them in the lead, then the same-day vote in the larger cities gets counted, bumping up Democratic totals again.

Steve Kornacki has been doing a good job in the close races of showing how candidates are doing vs. Trump/Biden in 2020 and also how much of the vote remains in which counties. That gives a better idea of how the race stands in some of these elections. Based on this, Fetterman seems to be in very good shape in PA.

The Democrats are holding a slim lead as of now.

Fetterman has been declaring the winner in PA.

[Bob Juch]

The only Democrat who is trailing is Tom O'Halleran, who is a victim of redistricting. He was moved to a redder area.

[Weyoun]

Kari Lake reminds me of a local broadcaster named Wendy Bell. She was kicked off the local news because she was suggesting, basically, that police should be free to shoot Black people in the streets if they were protesting, even if they weren’t doing anything violent. A bit gauche!

Anyway she has that same sort of suburban, scared of the big cities outlook, and is fit with close cropped hair also.

Someone you’re mildly embarrassed is a member of your country club. Certainly no one you want to elect governor

[Spock]

Kari Lake reminds me of a local broadcaster named Wendy Bell. She was kicked off the local news because she was suggesting, basically, that police should be free to shoot Black people in the streets if they were protesting, even if they weren’t doing anything violent. A bit gauche!

Anyway she has that same sort of suburban, scared of the big cities outlook, and is fit with close cropped hair also.

Someone you’re mildly embarrassed is a member of your country club. Certainly no one you want to elect governor

Boy, you are big on the whole "Scared of the big cities" thing aren't you.

My wife has a first cousin once removed who graduated from Compton, California in 1956 and she describes it as an absolutely beautiful place. She now lives in the far exurbs and hasn't been back to Compton in decades.

When we went to her house in 2016, she said she has talked to some of the long-time African-American truck drivers in their family business and asked them if they would take her on a short visit to Compton.

They told her that they don't even go there.

Do these African-American truck drivers have the "suburban, scared of big cities" outlook of which you speak?

[Weyoun]

Kari Lake reminds me of a local broadcaster named Wendy Bell. She was kicked off the local news because she was suggesting, basically, that police should be free to shoot Black people in the streets if they were protesting, even if they weren’t doing anything violent. A bit gauche!

Anyway she has that same sort of suburban, scared of the big cities outlook, and is fit with close cropped hair also.

Someone you’re mildly embarrassed is a member of your country club. Certainly no one you want to elect governor

Boy, you are big on the whole "Scared of the big cities" thing aren't you.

My wife has a first cousin once removed who graduated from Compton, California in 1956 and she describes it as an absolutely beautiful place. She now lives in the far exurbs and hasn't been back to Compton in decades.

When we went to her house in 2016, she said she has talked to some of the long-time African-American truck drivers in their family business and asked them if they would take her on a short visit to Compton.

They told her that they don't even go there.

Do these African-American truck drivers have the "suburban, scared of big cities" outlook of which you speak?

Do you always take one example to mean it applies universally? Westwood is also part of Los Angeles. Should I be scared to visit Westwood?

[Bob Juch]

Kari Lake reminds me of a local broadcaster named Wendy Bell. She was kicked off the local news because she was suggesting, basically, that police should be free to shoot Black people in the streets if they were protesting, even if they weren’t doing anything violent. A bit gauche!

Anyway she has that same sort of suburban, scared of the big cities outlook, and is fit with close cropped hair also.

Someone you’re mildly embarrassed is a member of your country club. Certainly no one you want to elect governor

Lake is now neck and neck with Hobbs; she used to be a broadcaster. Hobbs has done very much better in the big cities. It's the rural areas that support the MAGAs.

[Spock]

Kari Lake reminds me of a local broadcaster named Wendy Bell. She was kicked off the local news because she was suggesting, basically, that police should be free to shoot Black people in the streets if they were protesting, even if they weren’t doing anything violent. A bit gauche!

Anyway she has that same sort of suburban, scared of the big cities outlook, and is fit with close cropped hair also.

Someone you’re mildly embarrassed is a member of your country club. Certainly no one you want to elect governor

Boy, you are big on the whole "Scared of the big cities" thing aren't you.

My wife has a first cousin once removed who graduated from Compton, California in 1956 and she describes it as an absolutely beautiful place. She now lives in the far exurbs and hasn't been back to Compton in decades.

When we went to her house in 2016, she said she has talked to some of the long-time African-American truck drivers in their family business and asked them if they would take her on a short visit to Compton.

They told her that they don't even go there.

Do these African-American truck drivers have the "suburban, scared of big cities" outlook of which you speak?

Do you always take one example to mean it applies universally? Westwood is also part of Los Angeles. Should I be scared to visit Westwood?

Wow, I thought you were like SSS and wouldn't understand what granularity was if it bit you in the ass. Congrats on recognizing that there are parts of big cities (Westwood) that are safe and, by extension, parts (Compton, South-Central-etc) that are probably not safe.

I suspect this is what your "Suburban, Scared of Big Cities" does. They probably go to the theater and ball games and restaurants and such in the hearts of the big cities, but don't spend a lot of time driving around the bad parts of town. Doesn't mean they are "Scared of Big cities" it is just common sense.

I suspect that even you, with your superior and condescending attitude, would avoid certain areas of certain cities, but it doesn't mean that you are scared of big cities.

From 2006 to 2015, I worked part-time in Minneapolis on a contract basis-I spent about a week every month there as we finished up projects. I can guarantee that the white, south Minneapolis liberals that I worked with didn't spend any time in the bad areas of north Minneapolis unless they had to go there for work (unlikely in the company I worked with). Doesn't mean they are afraid of "Big Cities" just parts of them.

[Bob Juch]

After today's dump, Katie Hobbs has improved to 51%, almost 32,000 votes ahead of Kari Lake.

Senator Mark Kelly passed the million vote mark to 52% versus 46% for Blake Masters.

Adrian Fontes increased his lead over Mark Finchem, 53% versus 47%,

[jarnon]

Let the infighting commence.

[silverscreenselect]

Let the infighting commence.

The same Republicans who spent the last two years groveling at Trump's feet are now blaming him for their poor showing.

[Bob Juch]

Let the infighting commence.

The same Republicans who spent the last two years groveling at Trump's feet are now blaming him for their poor showing.

As are the NY Post and the WSJ.

[Bob Juch]

Hobbs still leads Lake 51%/49%
Adrian Fontes has been declared the winner of Secretary of State
Mark Kelly has retained his Senate seat
Eli Crane beat Tom O'Halleran

Everyone else is still 50/50

[Bob Juch]

With 98% of the ballots counted, Katie Hobbs has been declared the winner. She's about 21,000 votes ahead.

I haven't seen anything about Kari Lake calling for a recount; I wouldn't be surprised if she did.

[silverscreenselect]

With 98% of the ballots counted, Katie Hobbs has been declared the winner. She's about 21,000 votes ahead.

I haven't seen anything about Kari Lake calling for a recount; I wouldn't be surprised if she did.

I'm wondering if and when Lake will start making serious fraud claims and/or filing lawsuits. If any losing Republican does so, it would be her.

My feeling is that, unlike useful idiots like Flock and those who helped Dinesh D'Souza make a quick buck off his sham documentary, most Republican candidates knew there was no fraud and that their whole posture on this issue was about as legitimate as the showboating in professional wrestling. Now that they've paid the price for this losing strategy, they're going back to the drawing board. The only one who doesn't seem to have gotten the message is the most influential of all, the ex-President.

[silverscreenselect]

Tom Petty's estate is threatening legal action against Kari Lake for continuing to use Petty's song "Won't Back Down" without permission in her latest "campaign" videos.

[Bob Juch]

Maricopa County chairman — a Republican — transferred to an undisclosed location after death threats from far-right election deniers

Republican Bill Gates, the chair of the Maricopa County Elections Department in Arizona, has come under increasing fire for pushing back against bogus claims of stolen elections from far-right provocateurs regurgitating Trump's rampant election denialism, including vanquished gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/maricopa- ... th-threats

[silverscreenselect]

Republican officials in a rural Arizona county refused Monday to certify the 2022 election despite no evidence of anything wrong with the count, a decision that was quickly challenged in court by the state’s top election official. The refusal to certify by Cochise County in southeastern Arizona comes amid pressure from prominent Republicans to reject results showing Democrats winning top races.

Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat who narrowly won the race for governor, asked a judge to order county officials to canvass the election, which she said is an obligation under Arizona law. Lawyers representing a Cochise County voter and a group of retirees filed a similar lawsuit Monday, the deadline for counties to approve the official tally of votes, known as the canvass. The two Republican county supervisors delayed the canvass vote until Friday, when they want to hear once more about concerns over the certification of ballot tabulators, though election officials have repeatedly said the equipment is properly approved.

State Elections Director Kori Lorick wrote in a letter last week that Hobbs is required by law to approve the statewide canvass by next week and will have to exclude Cochise County’s votes if they aren’t received in time. That would threaten to flip the victor in at least two close races — a U.S. House seat and state schools chief — from a Republican to a Democrat. Hobbs’ lawsuit asks the Cochise County Superior Court to order officials to certify by Thursday. Failing to certify would undermine the will of the county’s voters “and sow further confusion and doubt about the integrity of Arizona’s election system,” lawyers for Hobbs wrote.

https://apnews.com/article/arizona-dead ... 31c14b79fb

So, let me see if I have this straight. Republican election officials don't want to certify the results in their heavily Republican county. The Democratic Secretary of State, who has just been elected governor, is suing to make them do so. If they don't certify the votes by the upcoming deadline, it will probably flip a very close Congressional election to the Democratic candidate because the majority of votes in that county in favor of the apparent Republican winner wouldn't be counted.

Got it.

[silverscreenselect]

Donald Trump wasn't the only Republican to have a bad day in court today. This summer, Kari Lake and Mark Fincham sued Katie Hobbs (in her official capacity as Secretary of State) and the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, challenging the procedures for counting ballots in the midterm election and proposing alternate procedures that included requiring paper ballots. One problem with their argument is that Arizona law already requires paper ballots except in rare cases to accommodate disabled voters. The Federal District Court threw out Lake and Fincham's lawsuit in August. The Supervisors who were sued then moved for sanctions against Lake and Fincham under the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure for filing a frivolous lawsuit. The Court said:

Plaintiffs lacked an adequate factual or legal basis to support the wideranging constitutional claims they raised or the extraordinary relief they requested.
Plaintiffs filled the gaps between their factual assertions, claimed injuries, and requested relief with false, misleading, and speculative allegations.

The Court then criticized the Plaintiffs for failing to conduct a proper inquiry before filing the lawsuit.

Plaintiffs either failed to conduct the reasonable factual and legal inquiry required under Rule 11, or they conducted such an inquiry and filed this lawsuit anyway. Either way, no reasonable attorney, “after conducting an objectively reasonable inquiry into the facts and law, would have found the complaint to be well-founded.”

The Court then ordered Lake and Fincham's attorneys to pay the attorneys fees for the Board of Supervisors. (Lake and Fincham personally were not required to pay.)

https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineering. ... afba13.pdf

[silverscreenselect]

And now a state judge in Arizona has given Kari Lake a lump of coal for Christmas. She filed a lawsuit contesting her loss to Katie Hobbs in the governor's election last month. The judge threw out most of her claims without a hearing, saying that they didn't constitute grounds for overturning an election. He did allow Lake to proceed to an evidentiary hearing on two counts, a claim regarding ballot machine malfunctions in Maricopa County and one about chain of custody of the ballots. Right wingers were thrilled that they were going to get their day in court. Well, that day came and went. After hearing the evidence Lake presented, the judge said that she had failed to prove her fraud claims.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/24/politics ... index.html

On Friday, Republican AG candidate Abraham Hamadeh, who lost by only 511 votes, had his lawsuit thrown out by a different court.