The swing states

[Pastor Fireball]

At 6 this morning, Quinnipiac University released a set of surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania with the best polling news Donald Trump has gotten in a long time. In the version of the polls that includes third-party candidates — that’s the version FiveThirtyEight uses — Trump led Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in Florida, 1 percentage point in Ohio and 6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

The results run in contrast to the preponderance of national polls, which show Clinton ahead by roughly 5 percentage points, on average. And some of the other polls released today weren’t as bad for Clinton. Some were even good for her, in fact. A Monmouth University poll showed her up by 13 percentage points in Colorado, while Fox News had her up by 9 points there. And a Marist College poll, contradicting Quinnipiac, had her up 8 points in Pennsylvania.

Nonetheless, the bevy of state polls today worked strongly to Trump’s benefit overall. His chances of winning the Electoral College are up to 29 percent, from 23 percent on Tuesday, according to our polls-only model. And they’re now 33 percent, up from 27 percent, in our polls-plus model, which also accounts for economic conditions. FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are generally conservative until late in the race, so those qualify as fairly big changes by our standards.

Full article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... new-polls/

It should be no surprise that the current polls would skew more toward the dilated cow anus in a bale of straw. The Republican convention begins Monday and the Republican running mate will likely be announced within the next 24 hours. All the talk is about Indiana governor Mike Pence right now. If Trump's running mate is indeed Pence, then the announcement has to be made by 11:59 AM tomorrow. Since Pence is actually running for re-election to his own position and Indiana law prohibits anybody from running for two offices at once, he would have to drop out of the gubernatorial race before the state's filing deadline (which is noon tomorrow).

Such an announcement would incidentally be the second major political shake-up in Indiana in less than a week. A couple of days ago, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Baron Hill shocked everybody by suddenly quitting the race. Former senator Evan Bayh (who had actually retired from the Senate six years ago) jumped in to replace Hill.

That's two offices in a pretty red state that could actually be in play on Election Day.

[Bob78164]

At 6 this morning, Quinnipiac University released a set of surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania with the best polling news Donald Trump has gotten in a long time. In the version of the polls that includes third-party candidates — that’s the version FiveThirtyEight uses — Trump led Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in Florida, 1 percentage point in Ohio and 6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

The results run in contrast to the preponderance of national polls, which show Clinton ahead by roughly 5 percentage points, on average. And some of the other polls released today weren’t as bad for Clinton. Some were even good for her, in fact. A Monmouth University poll showed her up by 13 percentage points in Colorado, while Fox News had her up by 9 points there. And a Marist College poll, contradicting Quinnipiac, had her up 8 points in Pennsylvania.

Nonetheless, the bevy of state polls today worked strongly to Trump’s benefit overall. His chances of winning the Electoral College are up to 29 percent, from 23 percent on Tuesday, according to our polls-only model. And they’re now 33 percent, up from 27 percent, in our polls-plus model, which also accounts for economic conditions. FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are generally conservative until late in the race, so those qualify as fairly big changes by our standards.

Full article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... new-polls/

In the current polls-only forecast, Trump now has better than 1 chance in 3 to be elected President. According to the "nowcast," if the election were held today, Trump would be nearly 50-50 to win the White House. --Bob

[silverscreenselect]

At 6 this morning, Quinnipiac University released a set of surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania with the best polling news Donald Trump has gotten in a long time. In the version of the polls that includes third-party candidates — that’s the version FiveThirtyEight uses — Trump led Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in Florida, 1 percentage point in Ohio and 6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

The results run in contrast to the preponderance of national polls, which show Clinton ahead by roughly 5 percentage points, on average. And some of the other polls released today weren’t as bad for Clinton. Some were even good for her, in fact. A Monmouth University poll showed her up by 13 percentage points in Colorado, while Fox News had her up by 9 points there. And a Marist College poll, contradicting Quinnipiac, had her up 8 points in Pennsylvania.

Nonetheless, the bevy of state polls today worked strongly to Trump’s benefit overall. His chances of winning the Electoral College are up to 29 percent, from 23 percent on Tuesday, according to our polls-only model. And they’re now 33 percent, up from 27 percent, in our polls-plus model, which also accounts for economic conditions. FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are generally conservative until late in the race, so those qualify as fairly big changes by our standards.

Full article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... new-polls/

It should be no surprise that the current polls would skew more toward the dilated cow anus in a bale of straw. The Republican convention begins Monday and the Republican running mate will likely be announced within the next 24 hours. All the talk is about Indiana governor Mike Pence right now. If Trump's running mate is indeed Pence, then the announcement has to be made by 11:59 AM tomorrow. Since Pence is actually running for re-election to his own position and Indiana law prohibits anybody from running for two offices at once, he would have to drop out of the gubernatorial race before the state's filing deadline (which is noon tomorrow).

Such an announcement would incidentally be the second major political shake-up in Indiana in less than a week. A couple of days ago, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Baron Hill shocked everybody by suddenly quitting the race. Former senator Evan Bayh (who had actually retired from the Senate six years ago) jumped in to replace Hill.

That's two offices in a pretty red state that could actually be in play on Election Day.

Pence makes sense on a "least of three evils" level; he doesn't bring a whole lot to Trump's ticket but at least he doesn't have the high additional negatives that both Gingrich and Christie have. For most people, he's a non-entity on the national level.

Hillary is paying the price right now for the e-mail scandal and, perhaps, the various shootings last week, although it's not clear exactly how that's going to play out. The good news for her is that it's finally out of the way, and, if the Republicans continue to make noise about it (which they will), there's nothing new to find. She's also finally got Bernie back on board, and I think she can steal some of Trump's thunder with her own VP pick next week (I think it will be Elizabeth Warren, who can get under Trump's skin quite easily). Trump, on the other hand, is a potential gold mine of foot-in-mouthitis from now until election day. You'll get a better feel for where the election is in polls two weeks from now (August 1 is a good benchmark, since it takes a few days for feedback from the conventions to factor into the polls).

[Bob Juch]

Full article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... new-polls/

It should be no surprise that the current polls would skew more toward the dilated cow anus in a bale of straw. The Republican convention begins Monday and the Republican running mate will likely be announced within the next 24 hours. All the talk is about Indiana governor Mike Pence right now. If Trump's running mate is indeed Pence, then the announcement has to be made by 11:59 AM tomorrow. Since Pence is actually running for re-election to his own position and Indiana law prohibits anybody from running for two offices at once, he would have to drop out of the gubernatorial race before the state's filing deadline (which is noon tomorrow).

Such an announcement would incidentally be the second major political shake-up in Indiana in less than a week. A couple of days ago, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Baron Hill shocked everybody by suddenly quitting the race. Former senator Evan Bayh (who had actually retired from the Senate six years ago) jumped in to replace Hill.

That's two offices in a pretty red state that could actually be in play on Election Day.

Pence makes sense on a "least of three evils" level; he doesn't bring a whole lot to Trump's ticket but at least he doesn't have the high additional negatives that both Gingrich and Christie have. For most people, he's a non-entity on the national level.

Hillary is paying the price right now for the e-mail scandal and, perhaps, the various shootings last week, although it's not clear exactly how that's going to play out. The good news for her is that it's finally out of the way, and, if the Republicans continue to make noise about it (which they will), there's nothing new to find. She's also finally got Bernie back on board, and I think she can steal some of Trump's thunder with her own VP pick next week (I think it will be Elizabeth Warren, who can get under Trump's skin quite easily). Trump, on the other hand, is a potential gold mine of foot-in-mouthitis from now until election day. You'll get a better feel for where the election is in polls two weeks from now (August 1 is a good benchmark, since it takes a few days for feedback from the conventions to factor into the polls).

The Christian Right doesn't like Pence because of Indiana's anti-LGBT law has portrayed them in a very negative light.

[SpacemanSpiff]

The Christian Right doesn't like Pence because of Indiana's anti-LGBT law has portrayed them in a very negative light.

Funny, didn't they support the law in the first place? Or is it that they didn't like that it was reversed once it hit the light of day? (i.e., he was a flip-flopper.)

[Bob Juch]

The Christian Right doesn't like Pence because of Indiana's anti-LGBT law has portrayed them in a very negative light.

Funny, didn't they support the law in the first place? Or is it that they didn't like that it was reversed once it hit the light of day? (i.e., he was a flip-flopper.)

Actually, it wasn't reversed. It was modified and still is causing boycotts.

[SpacemanSpiff]

The Christian Right doesn't like Pence because of Indiana's anti-LGBT law has portrayed them in a very negative light.

Funny, didn't they support the law in the first place? Or is it that they didn't like that it was reversed once it hit the light of day? (i.e., he was a flip-flopper.)

Actually, it wasn't reversed. It was modified and still is causing boycotts.

OK -- so they are mad at him because he got a law passed that they supported, and blame him for the blowback they are getting?

[Bob Juch]

Funny, didn't they support the law in the first place? Or is it that they didn't like that it was reversed once it hit the light of day? (i.e., he was a flip-flopper.)

Actually, it wasn't reversed. It was modified and still is causing boycotts.

OK -- so they are mad at him because he got a law passed that they supported, and blame him for the blowback they are getting?

Yes

[Pastor Fireball]

I think she can steal some of Trump's thunder with her own VP pick next week (I think it will be Elizabeth Warren, who can get under Trump's skin quite easily).

I'm not ready to print up those Clinton-Warren bumper stickers quite yet. Tim Kaine has been doing an excellent job of the so-called "attack dog" lately. He may end up being Hillary's running mate. I think he makes more sense than Warren. He's a former governor, he's a former DNC chair, and he comes from a big battleground state with a Democratic governor. If Kaine is elected VP, then McAuliffe would pick Kaine's successor. Massachusetts currently has a Republican governor (Charlie Baker), so Warren's Senate successor would almost certainly be a Republican.

[Pastor Fireball]

It's official: Pence is the Republican VP nominee.

EDIT: And it took Team Hillary less than fifteen minutes to release the first anti-Pence ad. You know they had to have an anti-Christie ad and an anti-Gingrich ad prepared, as well.

[smilergrogan]

I wouldn't give thruppence for Trump-Pence. Not even tuppence.

[SpacemanSpiff]

I wouldn't give thruppence for Trump-Pence. Not even tuppence.

Sounds like a bunch of bird feed to me.

[SpacemanSpiff]

I think she can steal some of Trump's thunder with her own VP pick next week (I think it will be Elizabeth Warren, who can get under Trump's skin quite easily).

I'm not ready to print up those Clinton-Warren bumper stickers quite yet. Tim Kaine has been doing an excellent job of the so-called "attack dog" lately. He may end up being Hillary's running mate. I think he makes more sense than Warren. He's a former governor, he's a former DNC chair, and he comes from a big battleground state with a Democratic governor. If Kaine is elected VP, then McAuliffe would pick Kaine's successor. Massachusetts currently has a Republican governor (Charlie Baker), so Warren's Senate successor would almost certainly be a Republican.

Therein lies two problems.

First, an all-female ticket might not be the wisest choice. At the risk of sounding sexist, how many females have won the Veep job? (That's a rhetorical question.)

Second, and more problematic, both are Senators. Given that there is a possibility that the Senate might flip to the Democrats, it could cause an issue if one of them is replaced by a Republican. Yes, McAuliffe would appoint a Democrat for Kaine, but there would be a special election at the next general election - November 2017. That might mean that the Senate flip might only last a year if the senate were at 50 for each party (assuming a Democrat in the White House) or 51-49 favoring the Democrats (if Trump wins). And certainly Kasich would pick a Republican to replace Warren (same rules apply about "next general election", but not sure when that is in Ohio, nor of which party might prevail).

Then again, I don't know who else would fit well. Kaine might help get Virginia (a swing state) and Warren might help get Ohio (another swing state and, in recent history, one that dooms the Republicans if they don't win). Historians out there, help me - since JFK picked LBJ, has there been a VP candidate that was picked primarily for geographical (votes) reasons?

[Bob78164]

Historians out there, help me - since JFK picked LBJ, has there been a VP candidate that was picked primarily for geographical (votes) reasons?

Isn't that why McCain picked Palin? To pick up the Russian vote? --Bob

[jarnon]

Historians out there, help me - since JFK picked LBJ, has there been a VP candidate that was picked primarily for geographical (votes) reasons?

In 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Dukakis took a page from JFK's playbook and chose Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen. Sadly, Dukakis was no Jack Kennedy.

Also, Fireball's right: Warren represents Massachusetts. And neither Warren nor Kaine are approaching the end of their terms, so they'd stay in the Senate if Trump and Pence win.

[Admiral Stockdale]

My phone is still strangely silent...

[SpacemanSpiff]

My phone is still strangely silent...

Which brings another question clanking in my head.

Ike was a career military person who won two Presidential terms. I know most folks that ran for POTUS have some kind of military service, but when was the last time a career military VP candidate actually won? The only ones I can think of were the ones for third parties - Stockdale (as noted above) with Ross Perot, and Gen. Curtis Lemay (Ret.) with George Wallace in 1968.

[Jeemie]

It's official: Pence is the Republican VP nominee.

EDIT: And it took Team Hillary less than fifteen minutes to release the first anti-Pence ad. You know they had to have an anti-Christie ad and an anti-Gingrich ad prepared, as well.

All that money spent and only running even in the polls.

We can expect more of these swings.

When 64% of the voters tell you they despise both candidates, that means anything that happens that reinforces in people's minds WHY they dislike one or the other will cause them to get smacked down in the polls. Any support they have beyond a small core is likely to be very soft.

This election will go to whichever unlikable candidate isn't the last one with a major screw-up.

[Pastor Fireball]

I realized that we shouldn't be printing up those Trump-Pence bumper stickers yet, either. Trump isn't actually the nominee yet, and there's still a small chance of some inside monkey business happening at the convention.

Anything is possible at this point. After all, it's taking place in Cleveland this year. The bosses could insert themselves into the contest, they could steal the title away from the anointed winner, and they could give the title to somebody who neither earned it nor deserved it.

No, wait. I'm sorry. That's not the Republican Convention. That's the NBA Finals.

[silverscreenselect]

I realized that we shouldn't be printing up those Trump-Pence bumper stickers yet, either. Trump isn't actually the nominee yet, and there's still a small chance of some inside monkey business happening at the convention.

One reason I really wasn't that upset about Trump getting close in the polls this week was that it pretty much took the air out of the "Anyone but Trump" movement. If he were 10 points down and sinking, I could see possibly going to someone else, but now a lot of the Republicans are convinced that Trump is going to win people over with his anti-terrorism tough talk.

[Pastor Fireball]

And by the way, I haven't even mentioned the Trump-Pence logo in this thread.

Go on social media and read the comments about it. You'll thank me later.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Maybe he should rename the thread to "Schwing states"

I'm trying not to be a dick about this. But you guys are making it hard. (Wait, what?) --B b[/quote]
That might be an appropriate comment for the new logo.