Jeemie wrote:Spock wrote:It is simply impossible for someone who views solar/wind as "Free" to develop a rational/realistic energy policy.
It is equally irrational for those who think the "free market" will "naturally evolve our energy strategy" for us.
You think climate models are bad?
They are way more scientific than the "models" we keep using to gauge which economic decisions are the best ones to make.
Here's the deal. Irrespective of global warming, we need to have a coherent strategy for getting off fossil fuels.
The reason is no one understands that our "economic signals" are telling us that continued reliance on them is going to be a major constraint/drag on future economic growth. They don't understand why our current supply "glut" is actually a major warning sign to get off fossil fuels as quickly as possible.
Our "way of life" is a dissapative structure like our bodies- it needs constant smooth energy inputs to function and grow.
Fossil fuels are very soon...if not already...going to be a less smooth, less constant energy input.
By the time economic signals that REALLY let us know this start appearing, it will be too late to change without MAJOR economic dislocation.
I have never quite understood how a Glut tells us a shortage is coming. You will also have to pardon me if I have less than 100% confidence in your predictive abilities.
10 years ago(or so), when there was a shortage of natural gas in this country and major investment was flowing towards import terminals-your side never saw the natural gas glut coming. You never saw the Bakken/ Eagle Ford/Permian etc coming in oil.
I watched your side talking the Bakken down all the way up-"Oh, it might get to 200,000, but won't go beyond-Oh, it might get to 400,000-but not beyond."-etc
I would love if you could show me somebody that said early that it will get to 1,000,000. It is still above that-but dropping slowly, because it doesn't work at these low levels.
However, that oil is still there and in the short term there are a lot of wells that are not finished that can be completed in weeks-if/when oil goes up.
Long term-when prices go up-somebody will drill it-it may not be the same companies as are there now-but somebody with strong hands will do it.
The big weakness that I see on your side is that you only think technological advances will come on your side. You do not factor in the technological advancements on the fossil fuel production side.