Huge Lottery

[TheConfessor]

The official Powerball estimate is now $550 million ($350 million cash value). So a $2 ticket at 175 million to one odds is starting to look interesting.
http://www.powerball.com/pb_home.asp

[CarShark]

Just read that it's up to $600 million now.

[BackInTex]

Just read that it's up to $600 million now.

That is a scary amount of money.

I'm glad a trust can win the lottery in Texas.

[silverscreenselect]

Just read that it's up to $600 million now.

That is a scary amount of money.

I'm glad a trust can win the lottery in Texas.

I'll bet you're glad that Obama's tax increase went through so you'll be able to pay your fair share of those winnings to help support Obamacare.

[elwoodblues]

I'm going to buy a ticket. I figure the chances of winning are roughly the same as the chances of finding a good job if you're over 50.

[Bob78164]

I wonder if additional players (more money but also more chances for a winning ticket) increases or decreases the odds of a very large jackpot. --Bob

It increases the odds of multiple winners so decreases the probable payout for each winner.

Does that factor outweigh the increased size of the jackpot based on the additional players? --Bob

[Estonut]

I wonder if additional players (more money but also more chances for a winning ticket) increases or decreases the odds of a very large jackpot.

It increases the odds of multiple winners so decreases the probable payout for each winner.

Does that factor outweigh the increased size of the jackpot based on the additional players?

This all depends on your terminology. By "winning ticket," do you mean any winning ticket or just the Grand Prize? By "a very large jackpot" do you mean winning the Grand Prize, or being the only winner of the Grand Prize? The odds of any match of the numbers for the Grand Prize remains 1 in 175,223,510, no matter how many people play.

[Snaxx]

I found the right place to play and suppose everyone else is out of luck.

Spoiler

[smilergrogan]

I wonder if additional players (more money but also more chances for a winning ticket) increases or decreases the odds of a very large jackpot. --Bob

It increases the odds of multiple winners so decreases the probable payout for each winner.

Does that factor outweigh the increased size of the jackpot based on the additional players? --Bob

I calculate the turnaround point is at about 250 million new tickets sold since the last drawing on Wed. So that would make the new jackpot have to be at about $610 million (previous was $360 million, $2 per ticket, assuming 50% goes toward payout).

Here are my calculated odds of multiple jackpot winners for each increment of 100 million new tickets, and the average payout per winner (given that there is a winner) for each scenario (according to the news there have been at least 250 million new tickets sold already since Wed.):

100 million new tickets ($460 million jackpot)
0 winners: 56.5%
1 winner: 32.3%
2 winners: 9.2%
3 winners: 1.8%
4 winners: 0.25%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $397 million

200 million new tickets ($560 million jackpot)
0 winners: 31.9%
1 winner: 36.4%
2 winners: 20.8%
3 winners: 7.9%
4 winners: 2.3%
5 winners: 0.52%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $413 million

250 million new tickets ($610 million jackpot)
0 winners: 24.0%
1 winner: 34.2%
2 winners: 24.5%
3 winners: 11.6%
4 winners: 4.2%
5 winners: 1.2%
6 winners: 0.28%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $415 million

300 million new tickets ($660 million jackpot)
0 winners: 18.0%
1 winner: 30.9%
2 winners: 26.5%
3 winners: 15.1%
4 winners: 6.5%
5 winners: 2.2%
6 winners: 0.63%
7 winners: 0.16%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $413 million

400 million new tickets ($760 million jackpot)
0 winners: 10.2%
1 winner: 23.2%
2 winners: 26.6%
3 winners: 20.2%
4 winners: 11.6%
5 winners: 5.3%
6 winners: 2.0%
7 winners: 0.66%
8 winners: 0.19%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $403 million

500 million new tickets ($860 million jackpot)
0 winners: 5.7%
1 winner: 16.4%
2 winners: 23.4%
3 winners: 22.3%
4 winners: 15.9%
5 winners: 9.1%
6 winners: 4.3%
7 winners: 1.8%
8 winners: 0.63%
9 winners: 0.20%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $388 million

600 million new tickets ($960 million jackpot)
0 winners: 3.2%
1 winner: 11.1%
2 winners: 19.1%
3 winners: 21.8%
4 winners: 18.7%
5 winners: 12.8%
6 winners: 7.3%
7 winners: 3.6%
8 winners: 1.5%
9 winners: 0.59%
10 winners: 0.20%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $369 million

[BackInTex]

250 million new tickets ($610 million jackpot)
0 winners: 24.0%
1 winner: 34.2%
2 winners: 24.5%
3 winners: 11.6%
4 winners: 4.2%
5 winners: 1.2%
6 winners: 0.28%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $415 million

You mean I might have to share?

[TheConfessor]

250 million new tickets ($610 million jackpot)
0 winners: 24.0%
1 winner: 34.2%
2 winners: 24.5%
3 winners: 11.6%
4 winners: 4.2%
5 winners: 1.2%
6 winners: 0.28%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $415 million

You mean I might have to share?

Good news! You won't have to share. The ticket you bought in Florida was the only winner.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05 ... orida?lite

[Bob78164]

250 million new tickets ($610 million jackpot)
0 winners: 24.0%
1 winner: 34.2%
2 winners: 24.5%
3 winners: 11.6%
4 winners: 4.2%
5 winners: 1.2%
6 winners: 0.28%
Avg. expected payout per winner: $415 million

You mean I might have to share?

Good news! You won't have to share. The ticket you bought in Florida was the only winner.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05 ... orida?lite

We all know how Timsterino loves to enter contests . . . . --Bob

[Estonut]

You mean I might have to share?

Good news! You won't have to share. The ticket you bought in Florida was the only winner.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05 ... orida?lite

We all know how Timsterino loves to enter contests . . . .

What are the odds it was him?

[CarShark]

Just me popping in to say that the Powerball Jackpot is up to $425 million (or $245 million lump). Best of luck!

[CarShark]

First time bumping this in a while, but the Powerball jackpot is up to an even $500 million about 5 1/2 hours before drawing time. That's the fifth-largest annuity jackpot in U.S. history. If you prefer cash in hand, you would receive $337.8 million. Is anyone here buying tickets?

[TheConfessor]

I bought ten bucks worth. Actually, I don't know what they're worth, but I paid $10 for them.

[SportsFan68]

I got mine.

[MarkBarrett]

I bought ten bucks worth. Actually, I don't know what they're worth, but I paid $10 for them.

Did you buy five sets of the same numbers? If someone else hits the jackpot along with you, you would take 5/6s of the total and instantly become the biggest (something or other) in the country.

[TheConfessor]

I bought ten bucks worth. Actually, I don't know what they're worth, but I paid $10 for them.

Did you buy five sets of the same numbers? If someone else hits the jackpot along with you, you would take 5/6s of the total and instantly become the biggest (something or other) in the country.

No, I'm not greedy. And that might arouse suspicion.

[Bob Juch]

I bought ten. Since I won $5000 and $500 years ago and have never spent that much on tickets I'm ahead of the game.

A friend of mine in Boise won the first "big" PowerBall drawing something like 20 years ago. It was $87 million.

[jaybee]

Interesting in that:

1. Just the top of page 8 of this 8 page thread is from almost two years ago. I guess you can't call the lotto a once-in-a-lifetime-chance.

2. Human nature is funny. People who would not buy a ticket for "only" a $150M prize or would only buy one will now buy multiple tickets for these near record breaking payouts. Despite the odds being fairly good that there will now be multiple winners.

3. Three winning numbers have been sold. Dividing the $564M down to $188M before all the cuts.

4. For most of us, would it really make much of a difference if we won say $100M vs $500M? I guess the higher number would allow you do star in the next addition of "Worlds Largest Yachts" without worrying about spending all of your new fortune.

5. I didn't win. I had some numbers for earlier drawings of this run, but not for last nights drawing. My lotto purchases seem to fall into the I-am-filling-up-with-fuel-and-have-a minute-to-go-inside type of motivation.

[Jeemie]

Interesting in that:

1. Just the top of page 8 of this 8 page thread is from almost two years ago. I guess you can't call the lotto a once-in-a-lifetime-chance.

2. Human nature is funny. People who would not buy a ticket for "only" a $150M prize or would only buy one will now buy multiple tickets for these near record breaking payouts. Despite the odds being fairly good that there will now be multiple winners.

3. Three winning numbers have been sold. Dividing the $564M down to $188M before all the cuts.

4. For most of us, would it really make much of a difference if we won say $100M vs $500M? I guess the higher number would allow you do star in the next addition of "Worlds Largest Yachts" without worrying about spending all of your new fortune.

5. I didn't win. I had some numbers for earlier drawings of this run, but not for last nights drawing. My lotto purchases seem to fall into the I-am-filling-up-with-fuel-and-have-a minute-to-go-inside type of motivation.

I have to admit I am silly on that front in two ways.

a) I don't buy tickets unless the jackpot gets into the $300 M and above range
b) I buy my own tickets, but also play in pools of up to 12 people, where my potential winnings are cut even more (1/12 of 1/3 of $338 M translates to $9.4 M before taxes- or abt $6-$7 M after taxes - still a nice chunk o'change, but nowhere near $338 M...and i would never buy tickets for a jackpot of $9.4 M).

[CarShark]

Hello there! Once again, I am bumping this topic up because a lottery jackpot has gone stratospheric. This time, it's the Powerball, which is at an annuitized value of $400 million. The current cash value is $244.5 million. Meanwhile, the Mega Millions jackpot is at a pretty healthy $145 million, $88 million cash. Best of luck to everyone!

[CarShark]

Nobody won the Powerball on Saturday, so with less than 11 hours to go before showtime, the annuitized jackpot is now a flat $500 million dollars. Half a billion. Cash value is now $306 million. Who here has bought a ticket or two...or ten?

[SportsFan68]

When it gets that high, it becomes a social event. SteelersFan and his breakfast buddies all chip in, and they have a great time figuring out their share if they win. Usually the take is zero, but sometimes they win $10 or $20, enough for the next week's tickets. Who knows, might as well be those guys.