God looks after drunks, fools and the USA

[Spock]

Not meant as a religious statement-just an old saying that I have been thinking about this morning.

With the Middle East on Fire-from a strategic sense the Shale Gas and Oil revolutions that have changed the world energy map in our favor, are looking pretty good right now.

Even more fortunate is that they have (largely) been in polities that allowed and encouraged accessing such resources.

[BackInTex]

Not meant as a religious statement-just an old saying that I have been thinking about this morning.

With the Middle East on Fire-from a strategic sense the Shale Gas and Oil revolutions that have changed the world energy map in our favor, are looking pretty good right now.

Even more fortunate is that they have (largely) been in polities that allowed and encouraged accessing such resources.

Yes, we in Texas are coming around and are quite the fans of the current President. He's gonna make us all rich!

[Spock]

Not meant as a religious statement-just an old saying that I have been thinking about this morning.

With the Middle East on Fire-from a strategic sense the Shale Gas and Oil revolutions that have changed the world energy map in our favor, are looking pretty good right now.

Even more fortunate is that they have (largely) been in polities that allowed and encouraged accessing such resources.

Yes, we in Texas are coming around and are quite the fans of the current President. He's gonna make us all rich![/quote

One of the things that bothers me most about this administration is that this whole thing fell into right into their laps and they lack the capacity-with their Blue-State mindsets-to appreciate and understand it.

Can you picture how(much more) feeble the Obama economy would be without the shale gas and oil revolution? I submit that this is the main thing that has kept the wheels from falling completely off our economy.

The footprint of the revolution is not just oil rig guys in Texas and ND. It's guys building pipe in Ohio and rail cars in Pennsylvania and sand mining in Wisconsin and-etc etc etc

[jarnon]

It's a sign of the effect of the oil boom on the Pennsylvania economy that all the Democratic candidates for Governor promised to tax the oil companies, not get rid of them.

And at this point, I'd rather have pipelines than trains derailing and spilling oil or burning.

[Spock]

I have been building fence all day and thinking about some of this.

1) At our level here, I don't think it is possible to overstate(or even comprehend) the magnitude of the revolution that is occurring. For example,just one data point today from "Million Dollar Way"-The (mostly) Bakken blog run by Kusch's friend.

>>>>Houston-based pipeline company, Enterprise Products Partners, L.P. (EPD) has declared plans to build its new ethane export facility on Houston Ship Channel. ....

The export terminal is designed to have a capacity to load fully refrigerated ethane at about 10,000 barrels per hour.
The terminal with a capacity to load 240,000 barrels of ethane per day for export is believed to be the world's largest ethane export terminal.

Again, just in case you missed it, this will be the world's largest ethane export terminal in the world. In the world. <<<<<

2) Some thoughts on Obama and the Revolution (obviously political).

He just visited an Indian Reservation in North Dakota. Why not visit Williston at the same time? if I were president and something like that was happening-I would want to see it. I think he lacks intellectual curiosity.

He is obviously supremely comfortable with the 24 year-old "kids" living in their parents' basements, with their worthless degrees whining about their student loans.

I don't think he can relate to, or even comprehend, the 24-Year old Men in the oil patch making 6 figures and learning skills with world-wide application.

[BackInTex]

I don't think he can relate to, or even comprehend, the 24-Year old Men in the oil patch making 6 figures and learning skills with world-wide application.

Obama can't relate to men or folks who work, period.

[silverscreenselect]

I don't think he can relate to, or even comprehend, the 24-Year old Men in the oil patch making 6 figures and learning skills with world-wide application.

Obama can't relate to men or folks who work, period.

Of course not. Obama's been in the tank for Wall Street/Big Business interests for years, same as the Republicans. The only thing he's ever done for the working man has been to float initiatives like minimum wage hikes that he knows have no chances of passing.

[Spock]

Per Pennsylvania-Jarnon (or anybody else) might be interested in the Delta Lines buying a Philly area refinery to produce their own fuel-if not previously aware of it.

http://bismarcktribune.com/bakken/break ... f887a.html

This story also looks at the issue of Bakken "Light Sweet" vs "Heavy Sour" crude. I think Eagle Ford (and maybe Permian) is also Light Sweet. Kind of an interesting facet of this thing in that the glut of "Light Sweet" could soon overwhelm refineries capability to handle it. Hence, the push to legalize exports of raw crude.

As I have said before-I handle part of Dad's IRA and (with my interest in the Bakken) have made a long-term investment in Bakken type companies. However, I am starting to move more into the broader area of stocks in the Revolution.

I recently sold one his smaller Bakken oil drillers and put the money into Phillips 66 (an oil refiner). Reasoning that it may profit from the glut while the oil companies may take a hit.

1) So I have him selling "Picks and Shovels to miners" in that he is in Halliburton. I have had him in this for about 12 years-which obviously predates the boom. I also have L'il Spock in this-(for about 2 years).

2) I have him in some oil companies and now a refinery.

3) I also have him in Dow Chemical. I can't remember if I bought it as a "Revolution" stock or just because. But there is an interesting Dow Chemical subtext to the story.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1288275978

I don't think this is hidden behind a pay wall.

[Bob Juch]

Per Pennsylvania-Jarnon (or anybody else) might be interested in the Delta Lines buying a Philly area refinery to produce their own fuel-if not previously aware of it.

http://bismarcktribune.com/bakken/break ... f887a.html

This story also looks at the issue of Bakken "Light Sweet" vs "Heavy Sour" crude. I think Eagle Ford (and maybe Permian) is also Light Sweet. Kind of an interesting facet of this thing in that the glut of "Light Sweet" could soon overwhelm refineries capability to handle it. Hence, the push to legalize exports of raw crude.

As I have said before-I handle part of Dad's IRA and (with my interest in the Bakken) have made a long-term investment in Bakken type companies. However, I am starting to move more into the broader area of stocks in the Revolution.

I recently sold one his smaller Bakken oil drillers and put the money into Phillips 66 (an oil refiner). Reasoning that it may profit from the glut while the oil companies may take a hit.

1) So I have him selling "Picks and Shovels to miners" in that he is in Halliburton. I have had him in this for about 12 years-which obviously predates the boom. I also have L'il Spock in this-(for about 2 years).

2) I have him in some oil companies and now a refinery.

3) I also have him in Dow Chemical. I can't remember if I bought it as a "Revolution" stock or just because. But there is an interesting Dow Chemical subtext to the story.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1288275978

I don't think this is hidden behind a pay wall.

Yes, it is behind a paywall. I found other sources. Now that the WSJ is owned by News Corp. I don't trust their reporting anyway.

One interesting thing about Dow: Rohm and Haas, who I consulted to in 2000-1, was bought by Dow several years ago. R&H was the largest maker of acrylic plastics. Those are made from natural gas instead of cracking petroleum. At the time I was there they had a problem with rising gas prices outstripping their ability to raise acrylic prices. Nowadays with falling gas prices Dow should be making a mint on acrylics.

[Spock]

Another comment on the magnitude of this whole thing.

Most here are probably somewhat aware of the proposed $5 Billion Tesla battery for which a site will soon be announced. I have seen it referred to as the "Much-Ballyhooed" Tesla plant.

I ran across the following comment describing a new plant in Texas from April 2014.

"Chevron Phillips Chemical Co., a venture between Chevron Corp. and Phillips 66 based in The Woodlands, Texas, broke ground near Houston this month on ethylene and polyethylene plastics plants whose budget will go $1 billion over the original $5 billion estimate, primarily because of labor costs, Chief Executive Officer Peter Cella said in an interview."

Here is a 6 Billion dollar plant that I just learned of and is just mentioned in passing in a story on industry labor shortages.

There are multi-billion investments popping up all over the place related to the Revolution.

We all know that the last thing Obama would ever do is highlight a new petro-chemical plant in Texas. But maybe a good president would. I suspect Bill Clinton would have at least jumped in front of the parade and pretended to be leading it.

[BackInTex]

Another comment on the magnitude of this whole thing.

Most here are probably somewhat aware of the proposed $5 Billion Tesla battery for which a site will soon be announced. I have seen it referred to as the "Much-Ballyhooed" Tesla plant.

I ran across the following comment describing a new plant in Texas from April 2014.

"Chevron Phillips Chemical Co., a venture between Chevron Corp. and Phillips 66 based in The Woodlands, Texas, broke ground near Houston this month on ethylene and polyethylene plastics plants whose budget will go $1 billion over the original $5 billion estimate, primarily because of labor costs, Chief Executive Officer Peter Cella said in an interview."

Here is a 6 Billion dollar plant that I just learned of and is just mentioned in passing in a story on industry labor shortages.

There are multi-billion investments popping up all over the place related to the Revolution.

We all know that the last thing Obama would ever do is highlight a new petro-chemical plant in Texas. But maybe a good president would. I suspect Bill Clinton would have at least jumped in front of the parade and pretended to be leading it.

Part of that cost escalation IS the good economy here. I had dinner with our school district Superintendent a month ago and he mentioned that during the bid phase for the next new high school they only got 2 bids. They normally get 4 or more, and a few years ago they got even more. Now most construction firms here are so busy they can't bid on any new projects.

If you aren't crippled and are unemployed in Houston or pretty much anywhere in Texas, you aren't trying.

[Spock]

>>>If you aren't crippled and are unemployed in Houston or pretty much anywhere in Texas, you aren't trying.<<<<

North Dakota, too obviously. When we were out there-They told us "If you can walk down the street-you can get a job."

The other night I was visiting with our local school superintendent-we are located in Minnesota about 100 miles southeast of Fargo and several hundred miles from the patch.

He said it is even affecting the number of teacher applications that we get. They are way down and other supes are telling him the same thing. Minnesota always used to pay better than ND-Now ND is similar or even better and maybe a spouse wants oilfield work or something.

One larger town had 2 Phys Ed vacancies. They got 18 job apps-normally they would probably get 400 for those 2 vacancies.

[Spock]

This is a pull quote from Million Dollar Way>>http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/

>>>the curve showed that the Tyler has two prospective targets: one approximately 12 feet thick; and another (thickness not specified, but sounds like 8 feet thick)
the challenge is keeping the drill bit in the target zone<<<<

Marathon Oil is exploring a new layer in North Dakota called the Tyler. I posted this because we sometimes take technology for granted. They are drilling down 2 miles (or whatever depth the Tyler is) turning it horizontal-for a mile or 2-and trying to stay in pay zones that are either 12 feet or 8 feet thick-and which may not be perfectly level.

My understanding is that the curve from vertical to horizontal starts about 1/4 mile above the targeted zone.

Plus ND just crossed the million barrel a day mark in April.

[jarnon]

This same precision drilling technology was used to rescue the trapped coal miners in Chile. Some of the equipment they used came from Pennsylvania.

[Spock]

http://sogistx.blogspot.com/2013/09/dri ... shale.html

My personal favorite thing about watching these shale plays is watching other layers above or below the main targeted layer getting attention.

" found hundreds of cases of companies targeting other South Texas formations, especially the Olmos Sandstone, Austin Chalk, Buda Limestone, Edwards Limestone and Pearsall Shale, which companies are using to bolster the value of their Eagle Ford acreage."

Buda seems to be the most interesting as of now.

The various benches of the 3 Forks (below the Bakken) are well-known and targeted.

The Permian has "X" number of layers.

When I first started watching this stuff an active blog (ostensibly from an energy CEO) pointed this out and also said that another neat thing is that with the sharp eyes looking at the basin-smaller pools of conventional oil would be found.

[Spock]

Another Day-Another $300 Million Dollar project in the oil patch.

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/conten ... t-fairview

A small refinery to produce diesel for local needs.

100 permanent good paying jobs plus whatever construction jobs plus whatever component manufacturing jobs(Everybody forgets about the latter).

This is a carbon copy of an MDU refinery currently under construction.

Plus it looks like the proposers are looking at more.

It appears the proposers are looking at building 4 more-So a total of 1.5 Billion in plants.

You literally can not keep track of the billion dollar projects related to the Shale Oil and Gas revolution.

The Obama economy is looking very sick even with this revolution (see recent downward GDP revisions)-What would it be without it?

As I said early in this thread- I submit that the only thing that has kept the wheels from falling entirely off the economy is the "Revolution."

[Bob Juch]

The GDP estimate was revised down due to a larger than expected trade deficit. Should Obama start banning imports?

[BackInTex]

The GDP estimate was revised down due to a larger than expected trade deficit. Should Obama start banning imports?

No, but he should quit pushing to make the American workforce the most expensive and least productive in the civilized world.

[Spock]

The GDP estimate was revised down due to a larger than expected trade deficit. Should Obama start banning imports?

So, Damn good thing then that the Shale Oil and Gas revolution has allowed us to shift from a natural gas importing paradigm to a natural gas exporting paradigm.

Anyway, I thought it was because of the worst winter in US History-but as we enter RECOVERY SUMMER 6-I admit that I get my Obama apologist excuses mixed up. Besides at the core, we all know that it is Emmanuel Goldstein's; er I mean Snowball the Pig's; er I mean George Bush's fault.

As Mark Steyn is fond of pointing out for various things-Obama has been president now for roughly the length of the entire 2nd World War.

[Spock]

Another day-another $450 Million Dollar Project in the Oil Patch.-And this is just ND.

https://rbnenergy.com/if-youve-got-the- ... -revisited

This refinery (Thunder Butte) is actually under construction as opposed to the proposals pointed out yesterday. I also referenced MDU's "Dakota Prairie" yesterday. The others may or may not happen as time goes by-Although it looks like "Fairview Refinery" referenced yesterday can be categorized as moving forward.

Pull Quote
>>>Dakota Prairie Refining: is now under construction and was 60% built by the end of May 2014 - slated for completion by the end of 2014 despite some cost overrun from $300 Million to $350 Million. Dakota Prairie is a 50/50 joint venture between MDU Resources Group, Inc. and Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. MDU own a conglomerate of industrial and utility assets in North Dakota including WBI Energy the local utility that will supply gas to the refinery and Fidelity Exploration and Production Company that will supply Bakken crude oil. Calumet manages many similar specialty product and refinery businesses in the US. The facility is located near Dickinson, ND and will process 20 Mb/d of Bakken crude and produce approximately 7Mb/d of ULSD.

Thunder Butte Petroleum: is also under construction – although only Phase 1 is being built so far. North Dakota’s Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara (MHA) Nation will own and operate the refinery. The plant will be located on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation near Makoti, ND. This $450 MM facility – financed in part from taxes collected by the tribes for oil production in Fort Berthold – is expected to refine 20 Mb/d of Bakken crude into diesel, gasoline and propane. Phase 1 – a truck unloading terminal and two 140 MBbl storage tanks will be completed by September 2014 including a rail spur to the nearby Canadian Pacific railroad. Portions of the refinery are in construction off-site in Houston, Texas, and will be shipped and assembled on site.<<<<

The last bolded sentence is just an example of the huge footprint of the Bakken. X number of jobs is Houston for this project.

[jarnon]

The Fort Berthold Native Americans should buy the Washington football team, move it to North Dakota, and call it anything they like.

[Spock]

The Fort Berthold Native Americans should buy the Washington football team, move it to North Dakota, and call it anything they like.

Wouldn't work even there. Witness the whole UND "Fighting Sioux" debacle. Sioux tribes in the state supported the nickname(at least the ones that voted) but NCAA made the school change it anyway.

For some reason, Seminoles is OK though. Money talks-I guess.

[Spock]

The GDP estimate was revised down due to a larger than expected trade deficit. Should Obama start banning imports?

I have gotten (a little) interested lately in the "Consumption" versus "Production" models of growing an economy.

You can't grow an economy by selling cheap Chinese crap to food stamp recipients at Walmart-The "Consumption" model as promulgated by this administration.

An extreme example is that there was/is endless consumption demand for toilet paper in the Soviet Union and now Venezuela. But nobody produced-so there they sat-literally, maybe.

The whole Shale Oil and Gas Revolution is a pretty good example of the "Production" model. HUGE numbers of high-paying jobs and an actual valuable product to feed the economy and, possibly, export.

[Bob Juch]

You can't grow an economy by selling cheap Chinese crap to food stamp recipients at Walmart-The "Consumption" model as promulgated by this administration.

WTF?! The current administration is certainly not promoting that. That's what the Koch brothers and the other oligarchs want to continue.

[Bob78164]

The GDP estimate was revised down due to a larger than expected trade deficit. Should Obama start banning imports?

I have gotten (a little) interested lately in the "Consumption" versus "Production" models of growing an economy.

You can't grow an economy by selling cheap Chinese crap to food stamp recipients at Walmart-The "Consumption" model as promulgated by this administration.

An extreme example is that there was/is endless consumption demand for toilet paper in the Soviet Union and now Venezuela. But nobody produced-so there they sat-literally, maybe.

The whole Shale Oil and Gas Revolution is a pretty good example of the "Production" model. HUGE numbers of high-paying jobs and an actual valuable product to feed the economy and, possibly, export.

You can when the problem with the economy is depressed demand, rather than lack of production, and that was exactly the problem when President Obama took office. Given the financial shocks we suffered in the latter days of the Bush Administration, people were afraid to spend money, so they didn't. This started a vicious cycle, in which businesses allowed productive capacity to lay idle, and laid off or failed to hire workers (a/k/a wannabe consumers). To make matters worse, the premature turn to austerity (just as occurred in FDR's second administration) took money out of consumers' hands before demand had recovered. --Bob