NFL playoff question

[SportsFan68]

If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three win, who goes to the playoffs?

[littlebeast13]

If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three win, who goes to the playoffs?

Miami currently has the 6th playoff spot in the AFC due to a better conference record than Baltimore or San Diego, so if they all win, that would not change. Baltimore is second in line... so I believe San Diego's only shot would be for both Miami and Baltimore to lose. This is per Pro Football Reference.com....

lb13

[Snaxx]

If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three win, who goes to the playoffs?

Fixing it for SteelersFan:
If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three lose, who goes to the playoffs with a win?

Spoiler

CLINCHING SCENARIOS: Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) PIT win + MIA loss + BAL loss + SD loss

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

[SportsFan68]

Thank you, Gentlemen.

[littlebeast13]

If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three win, who goes to the playoffs?

Fixing it for SteelersFan:
If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three lose, who goes to the playoffs with a win?

Spoiler

CLINCHING SCENARIOS: Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) PIT win + MIA loss + BAL loss + SD loss

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

What is the basis for the Stillers still being alive? I had heard last week that despite winning in Green Bay that they were eliminated, and Miami still has a superior conference record. Does it come down to come convoluted common games tiebreaker?

lb13

[Snaxx]

If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three win, who goes to the playoffs?

Fixing it for SteelersFan:
If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three lose, who goes to the playoffs with a win?

Spoiler

CLINCHING SCENARIOS: Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) PIT win + MIA loss + BAL loss + SD loss

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

What is the basis for the Stillers still being alive? I had heard last week that despite winning in Green Bay that they were eliminated, and Miami still has a superior conference record. Does it come down to come convoluted common games tiebreaker?

lb13

I was just as dumbfounded when I found out yesterday that they are still alive by using the ESPN site. Then I checked NFL.com and news stories and they all agree. I looked at the tiebreaker rules:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/stor ... iebreakers

Then I figured the following:
First step is to apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked team in each division (I think this was recently added to prevent a third-placed team from advancing to the playoffs ahead of a second-placed team)
NY Jets (8-8) with a win would split head-to-head and have a better division record than Miami (8-8). So Miami with the best conference record would be out.
Pittsburgh (8-8) with a win and having split head-to-head with Baltimore (8-8) would have a better division record, eliminating Baltimore.
San Diego (8-8) is on its own.

They did not all play each other so a head-to-head sweep was not possible.

Next is conference record:
Pittsburgh 6-6 <-- Wild Card
San Diego 5-7
NY Jets 4-8

[Troy Polymolyolygon]

Fixing it for SteelersFan:
If Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego all three lose, who goes to the playoffs with a win?

Spoiler

CLINCHING SCENARIOS: Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) PIT win + MIA loss + BAL loss + SD loss

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

What is the basis for the Stillers still being alive? I had heard last week that despite winning in Green Bay that they were eliminated, and Miami still has a superior conference record. Does it come down to come convoluted common games tiebreaker?

lb13

I was just as dumbfounded when I found out yesterday that they are still alive by using the ESPN site. Then I checked NFL.com and news stories and they all agree. I looked at the tiebreaker rules:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/stor ... iebreakers

Then I figured the following:
First step is to apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked team in each division (I think this was recently added to prevent a third-placed team from advancing to the playoffs ahead of a second-placed team)
NY Jets (8-8) with a win would split head-to-head and have a better division record than Miami (8-8). So Miami with the best conference record would be out.
Pittsburgh (8-8) with a win and having split head-to-head with Baltimore (8-8) would have a better division record, eliminating Baltimore.
San Diego (8-8) is on its own.

They did not all play each other so a head-to-head sweep was not possible.

Next is conference record:
Pittsburgh 6-6 <-- Wild Card
San Diego 5-7
NY Jets 4-8

Don't forget that we also win the tiebreaker for prettiest hair! I smell a first round bye, baby!

[Vandal]

[Bob78164]

Wow. So none of the teams in the hunt for the 6th playoff spot control their own destiny. --Bob

[littlebeast13]

Wow. So none of the teams in the hunt for the 6th playoff spot control their own destiny. --Bob

That was the first thing I noticed in that chart.... that is really weird, and maybe points out a flaw or two in the tiebreaker system...

lb13

[Bob78164]

Wow. So none of the teams in the hunt for the 6th playoff spot control their own destiny. --Bob

That was the first thing I noticed in that chart.... that is really weird, and maybe points out a flaw or two in the tiebreaker system...

lb13

I think that Arrow's Theorem ensures that a flaw of this nature is unavoidable. --Bob

[Ritterskoop]

Does controlling one's destiny refer only to the final game? I feel like teams do control it as they had something to say about the other 15 games.

It reminds me of when they say a high school kid cost his team a basketball game by missing a free throw at the end. Those other kids played those first 39 minutes. I get the idea about performing under pressure but it should be about the big picture, too.

I guess my resistance comes from loving baseball, where all the outs are the same and the ones at the end don't count for any more or less than the early ones.

... And that my team is in the playoffs already, which is pretty darn rare.

[littlebeast13]

Does controlling one's destiny refer only to the final game? I feel like teams do control it as they had something to say about the other 15 games.

It reminds me of when they say a high school kid cost his team a basketball game by missing a free throw at the end. Those other kids played those first 39 minutes. I get the idea about performing under pressure but it should be about the big picture, too.

I guess my resistance comes from loving baseball, where all the outs are the same and the ones at the end don't count for any more or less than the early ones.

... And that my team is in the playoffs already, which is pretty darn rare.

It just seems like at any point in a season, there should be at least at least enough teams who "control their own destiny" as there are available playoff spots. In baseball, this isn't an issue because all tied teams must continue playing until one has a superior record...

If vandal's chart is correct, the Ravens and Dolphins each have a 75% chance of advancing to the playoffs if they win on Sunday.... yet both teams' destinies are tied in to a game that seems otherwise meaningless unless they both lose (i.e., that is the Chargers only hope of advancing). This sets up the totally bizzarro scenario where if both the Ravens and Dolphins win their games at noon, then the Chiefs and Chargers will essentially be playing in the afternoon to decide whether Baltimore or Miami goes to the playoffs!!! Neither KC or San Diego would be playing for anything on their own since KC already has the 5th seed locked up, and SD would be eliminated... yet it would be just as playoff important a game as the Bears/Packers and Eagles/Cowboys is!

lb13

[elwoodblues]

One oddity this year is that going into the final week all four AFC division winners have been determined while in the NFC none of the four divisions has been decided yet.

[Bob78164]

Does controlling one's destiny refer only to the final game?

It refers to the time in which one is speaking (or writing). Each team controls its own destiny at the start of the season. --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

Now that the early games are played, it's a lot simpler (with the Bengals, Jets, and Steelers winning).

San Diego wins - they're in.
KC wins - Pittsburgh's in.

KC is resting a lot of their starters, though.

[littlebeast13]

Now that the early games are played, it's a lot simpler (with the Bengals, Jets, and Steelers winning).

San Diego wins - they're in.
KC wins - Pittsburgh's in.

KC is resting a lot of their starters, though.

Too bad... I think the bizarro playoff scenario where Kansas City was playing for Baltimore and San Diego was playing for Miami would have been more funner....

lb13

[littlebeast13]

I just noticed that the Texas started the season 2-0, then lost their last 14 games. That's even more impressive than Carolina losing their last 15 in 2001! Has any team ever finished with the worst record in the league after starting off with two wins?

lb13

[Ritterskoop]

I just noticed that the Texas started the season 2-0, then lost their last 14 games. That's even more impressive than Carolina losing their last 15 in 2001! Has any team ever finished with the worst record in the league after starting off with two wins?

lb13

I can't answer this, but I did some research I guess you guys are as likely to be interested in as anyone.

Since the current playoff format began in 2002, only three teams have opened the season 1-3 and gone on to a No. 2 seed (none have reached the top spot):

2002 Titans opened 1-3 and got the AFC's No. 2 seed
2005 Bears opened 1-3 and recovered for the NFC's No. 2 seed
2013 Panthers opened 1-3 and ripped off 11 of 12 for the NFC No. 2 seed

3 times out of 48 slots

[elwoodblues]

SD beat KC in OT to win the WC and tell the Steelers FU.

[MarkBarrett]

SD beat KC in OT to win the WC and tell the Steelers FU.

What was Ryan Succop's message to Pittsburgh when he missed the kick for the Chiefs in regulation? The Bolts caught a break today and their reward is a trip to Cincinnati where the Bengals were 8-0 at The Jungle this year.

[Vandal]

AFC Playoff seeds:
1) Denver 13-3
2) New England 12-4
3) Cincinnati 11-5
4) Indianapolis 11-5
5) Kansas City 11-5
6) San Diego 9-7


NFC Playoff seeds:
1) Seattle 13-3
2) Carolina 12-4
3) Philadelphia 10-6
4) Green Bay 8-7-1
5) San Francisco 12-4
6) New Orleans 11-5

Wild Card Weekend:
Saturday, Jan. 04
Chiefs at Colts 4:35 PM NBC
Saints at Eagles 8:10 PM NBC

Sunday , Jan. 05
Chargers at Bengals 1:05 PM CBS
49ers at Packers 4:40 PM FOX

[jarnon]

SD beat KC in OT to win the WC and tell the Steelers FU.

What was Ryan Succop's message to Pittsburgh when he missed the kick for the Chiefs in regulation? The Bolts caught a break today and their reward is a trip to Cincinnati where the Bengals were 8-0 at The Jungle this year.

The NFL realized (too late) that the Chargers should have been penalized for an illegal formation on that kick.

NFL: Refs missed call on Chargers

That 5-yard penalty may have been just enough to allow the Chiefs to make the winning field goal. It boggles the mind that the Steelers had such a remote chance to make the playoffs, came ever so close, but fell short.

[Ritterskoop]

I liked that Mike Tomlin said he was not going to get all excited about something that happened in a stadium he and his team were not even in.

That's what I was trying to get at earlier - if his team had won more on their own, they wouldn't need to worry about what someone else was up to.

[kayrharris]

Yikes, now my head hurts. It's worse than trying to figure out college football!


kay