Fearless Fosdick's Fabulous Forecast NCAA Tourney style

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#26 Post by **eyégor** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:32 am

I guess I need to address my methodology.

1 This was done as a lark, as are most predictions that I post here. Those who are familiar with my woeful record at such things should be relieved that extensive care & research don't play a part.

2 I posted this to elicit responses like Mac's - ARIZONA an 8???!?!

3 I intentionally did not look at any of the expert's seeding guesses, to keep from that influencing my 'work'

4 I did look at one or two lists that spoke of who were 'probably in' and who were 'on the bubble'. This was not research. Rather, it is what initially put the idea in my head. <EDIT> That & the delusional Siena fans around here talking 11th or 12th seeds.

5 I did look at the RPI & Strength of Schedule information.

6 Since the NCAA official blank bracket sheet does not list what games are to be played where, only the dates for each location, I quickly configured them in a somewhat logical configuration, using the template used before last year. The only place I have seen the 'pod' breakdown has been in expert forecasts. I did not waste time doing an extensive search.

7 I indulged myself somewhat by trying to avoid scheduling any team in their immediate back yard.My MAWGnesia prevents me from remembering what team in resent years that didn't have to travel more than 90 miles to play before the final 4, but I remember it happening. I also recall hearing complaints about the only tourney games I've attended (here in Albany) being Syracuse home games.

8 That said, I put less stock in where games are played than most people, given the way tickets are distributed

9 I still can't bring myself to consider UCLA a #1

10 I would probably reconsider Dayton, given the way they limped home this year.

11 I wouldn't replace them with Temple unless they upset Xavier (sorry melly)

12 Arizona State did beat Arizona twice, but did relatively little else. Arizona has a significantly better RPI & SOS with a similar record. I may reconsider if that Tree falls on them today, although I'd look for a Duck, not a Sun Devil.

13 I have not been impressed with Purdue this year (other than their over-achieving). I do not think Indiana's decisive win a few weeks ago (under less than ideal circumstances) to be a fluke. Sorry aj.

14 I still don't buy Villanova

15 I did this over a slightly lengthened lunch hour.

16 I did not do this to beat my own chest

17 Likewise, I did not do this so others could beat their chests, regardless of how many rodeos they have been to.

18 I hope this discussion continues.

Appa23 · #27 Post by **Appa23** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:39 am

eyégor wrote:I guess I need to address my methodology.

1 This was done as a lark, as are most predictions that I post here. Those who are familiar with my woeful record at such things should be relieved that extensive care & research don't play a part.

2 I posted this to elicit responses like Mac's - ARIZONA an 8???!?!

3 I intentionally did not look at any of the expert's seeding guesses, to keep from that influencing my 'work'

4 I did look at one or two lists that spoke of who were 'probably in' and who were 'on the bubble'. This was not research. Rather, it is what initially put the idea in my head.

5 I did look at the RPI & Strength of Schedule information.

6 Since the NCAA official blank bracket sheet does not list what games are to be played where, only the dates for each location, I quickly configured them in a somewhat logical configuration, using the template used before last year. The only place I have seen the 'pod' breakdown has been in expert forecasts. I did not waste time doing an extensive search.

7 I indulged myself somewhat by trying to avoid scheduling any team in their immediate back yard.My MAWGnesia prevents me from remembering what team in resent years that didn't have to travel more than 90 miles to play before the final 4, but I remember it happening. I also recall hearing complaints about the only tourney games I've attended (here in Albany) being Syracuse home games.

8 That said, I put less stock in where games are played than most people, given the way tickets are distributed

9 I still can't bring myself to consider UCLA a #1

10 I would probably reconsider Dayton, given the way they limped home this year.

11 I wouldn't replace them with Temple unless they upset Xavier (sorry melly)

12 Arizona State did beat Arizona twice, but did relatively little else. Arizona has a significantly better RPI & SOS with a similar record. I may reconsider if that Tree falls on them today, although I'd look for a Duck, not a Sun Devil.

13 I have not been impressed with Purdue this year (other than their over-achieving). I do not think Indiana's decisive win a few weeks ago (under less than ideal circumstances) to be a fluke. Sorry aj.

14 I still don't buy Villanova

15 I did this over a slightly lengthened lunch hour.

16 I did not do this to beat my own chest

17 Likewise, I did not do this so others could beat their chests, regardless of how many rodeos they have been to.

18 I hope this discussion continues.

Clearly, you put some work into it, lark or not.

Much more than I would try to do.

Carry on!

macrae1234 · #28 Post by **macrae1234** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:27 am

12 Arizona State did beat Arizona twice, but did relatively little else. Arizona has a significantly better RPI & SOS with a similar record. I may reconsider if that Tree falls on them today, although I'd look for a Duck, not a Sun Devil.

Arizona State also beat Xavier and USC and lost in overtime to Stanford. My comment was on Arizona's seeding not ASU's exclusion.

#29 Post by **eyégor** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:39 am

macrae1234 wrote:
12 Arizona State did beat Arizona twice, but did relatively little else. Arizona has a significantly better RPI & SOS with a similar record. I may reconsider if that Tree falls on them today, although I'd look for a Duck, not a Sun Devil.
Arizona State also beat Xavier and USC and lost in overtime to Stanford. My comment was on Arizona's seeding not ASU's exclusion.

Sorry, but I look at those below Arizona and I'd be hard pressed to go lower than a 9, which may be a stretch (maybe switch it with St Mary's)

St Marys
TAMU
Miss St
W Ky
Ky
Miss
Ore
Kent St
Ill St
Ark
Ohio St
Davidson
K State
UMass

It gets crowded in the 8-12 range

macrae1234 · #30 Post by **macrae1234** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:46 am

Sorry, but I look at those below Arizona and I'd be hard pressed to go lower than a 9, which may be a stretch (maybe switch it with St Mary's)

If Lute was coaching I would agree with you. But.........it's Kevin O'neil who has been consistently been outcoached in the Pac10 most noticeably by Herb Sendek

andrewjackson · #31 Post by **andrewjackson** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:02 am

eyégor wrote:
13 I have not been impressed with Purdue this year (other than their over-achieving). I do not think Indiana's decisive win a few weeks ago (under less than ideal circumstances) to be a fluke. Sorry aj.

No reason to be sorry. I still think you are wrong. An 8 seed is way too low even if you think Indiana is better.

I hope we get to play Indiana on Saturday to even the series. (Actually I hope Indiana gets crushed on Friday but I'll take what I can get.)

mellytu74 · #32 Post by **mellytu74** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:07 pm

eyégor wrote: 10 I would probably reconsider Dayton, given the way they limped home this year.

11 I wouldn't replace them with Temple unless they upset Xavier (sorry melly)

I love this time of year. Spring training and, as TLAF calls it, Mad March.

The agita-inducing Owlets (AIO) - and Dionte Christmas - induced agita en route to a win over LaSalle and a semifinal berth.

Where they could very well meet the Leemire Goldwires.

Another reason I would love Temple to make the tourney is for the two seniors - Mark Tyndale and Chris Clark.

Tyndale is from a rough neighborhood. He had some academic trouble, worked hard to right his ship and made the A-10 All-Academic team. He will graduate in August and wants to be a Philadelphia public school teacher. A fine, fine young man.

Chris Clark is a listed 5-8. But I do not think he is that tall. I shudder to think where the AIO would be without him this year. Another fine young man.

gotribego26 · #33 Post by **gotribego26** » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:02 pm

Appa23 wrote:It is not my first time at the rodeo.

That I know - I just keeping forgetting whether you're the dropping from the Bronc or the Bull.

#34 Post by **eyégor** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:56 am

Revision time

Red means a change
Green means new

East (I'm not going down that sub-regional rad again)

1 North Carolina (I concede the inevitable) v Mt St Mary's/Ala St winner
8 Gonzaga v 9 Kansas State
4 Drake v 13 Oral Roberts
5 Clemson v 12 Oregon
2 Georgetown v 15 UMBC
7 USC v 10 Kentucky
6 West Virginia v 11 Arkansas
3 Stanford v 14 Cornell

South

1 Memphis v 16 American
8 Miami v 9 Baylor
4 Butler v 13 George Mason
5 Marquette v 12 St Joe's
2 Texas v 15 San Diego
7 Vanderbilt v 10 UNLV
6 BYU v 11 Western Kentucky
3 Wisconsin v 14 UCSB

Midwest

1 Tennessee v 16 Morgan State
8 Davidson v 9 Baylor
4 Michigan State v 13 Stephen F Austin
5 Washington State v 12 Villanova
2 Kansas v 15 Belmont
7 Purdue v 10 TAMU
6 Pittsburgh v 11 Ohio State
3 Xavier v 14 Siena

West

1 UCLA v 16 Winthrop
8 Mississippi State v 9 Kent State
4 Louisville v 13 Austin Peay
5 Connecticut v 12 VCU - I don't see VCU making the tourney, but it is the best of a rapidly shrinking bubble
2 Duke v 15 Portland State
7 Oklahoma v 10 Illinois State
6 Notre Dame v 11South Alabama
3 Indiana v 14 Utah State