How the Democrats Select Their Delegates

[silverscreenselect]

The more I read about the delegate selection process, the more I understand two things: (1) how politics can be such a fascinating process on an esoteric level and (2) how Democrats continue to screw up election after election.

All the states are allotted delegates to the Democratic convention as a result of their primary or caucus. About 2/3 to 3/4 of the delegates in each state are selected by Congressional district and the rest statewide. Delegates are allotted to each Congressional district based on how heavily Democratic the district voted in earlier elections, but most districts have 4-8 delegates allotted.

District delegates are allotted proportionately by how well the candidates do in the district, subject to a 15% threshhold. If a candidate gets at least 15% of the vote in the district, he gets a delegate. If not, his votes are thrown out and the delegates allocated on the basis of the remainder. If, in a district Hillary gets 60%, Obama 30% and Edwards 10%, Edwards' votes would be thrown out and the vote refigured as Hillary 66.6% and Obama 33.3%. If that distict had six delegates, Hillary would get 4 and Obama 2. However, if the district only had five delegates, Hillary would get 3 and Obama 2, meaning he would do better delegate-wise than his raw totals would seemingly entitle him to.

The statewide delegates are divided into two separate groups. One group consists of elected state and county officials, and the others are chosen at large. Both groups are awarded proportionately but separately. So, if Hillary beats Obama 55-45 in a state and the state has 10 at large and 10 elected official delegates, both Hillary and Obama would split the two groups 5-5 each for a 10-10 total, instead of allocating the entire 20 as one single group, which would give Hillary an 11-9 advantage.

These elected officials are NOT the superdelegates. The superdelegates are chosen in advance and are not required to support any particular candidate. There are about 800 superdelegates and 3600 regular delegates.

As far as the people who actually become delegates, they are selected in a number of ways. In some states, they actually "run" on the day of the primary, while in others, they are selected through a caucus system or by the state party. The candidates have varying degrees of control over who gets to be a delegate pledged to them. Although delegates are pledged, they are not bound, so there is no way by party rule or legal maneuver to force them to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged (or replace them if they don't). So, in some cases, you will have loyalists for the particular candidate, and in others you will have political junkies who want to go to a convention and are willing to go through the hassle of attending a number of local and state caucuses (the delegates must pay their own way to the convention). The final delegate slate must be 50% male and 50% female in each state and racially proportionate for the state as well.

Obama was able to "win" the delegate totals in NV based on how the delegates were allotted. There were 6 at large delegates and 3 elected official at large slots. They were awarded 3-3 and 2-1 for Hillary. One district had six delegates and a second four. They were awarded 3-3 and 2-2. The third district had six delegates but was a very large rural district which was split into three zones with 3, 1 and 2 delegates each. Obama won two of those zones and those delegates were awarded for him 2-1 and 1-0. Hillary won the third zone but it still split 1-1. Adding all those up and Obama "wins" 13-12.

Add to this the fact that Florida and Michigan, with about 350 total delegates have been stripped of their totals by the Democratic National Committee because they moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday (only IA, NH, SC and NV were authorized to hold early primary/caucuses). Hillary won Michigan (admitted against token opposition) and stands to win Florida big as well. If those delegates are seated, she could easily pick up a 150 delegate or more advantage over Obama from those two states. If they are not seated, you have a lot of unhappy Democrats in Michigan and Florida, the latter of which could be a key swing state this year.

The entire system is one of those monstrosities that sounds good on some intellectual level, but if it is ever actually put to the test, as it might well be this year, proves very, very ugly. In 1972, there was a nasty floor fight between Humphrey and McGovern supporters over how to seat delegates and the resulting bad blood was a contributing factor in the Democrats' electoral demise that year.

[Ritterskoop]

That made my head hurt.

Any of the three leaders is fine with me. Possibly others are also, but they are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

[Jeemie]

The entire system is one of those monstrosities that sounds good on some intellectual level,

It does?

What level would that be?

[earendel]

Add to this the fact that Florida and Michigan, with about 350 total delegates have been stripped of their totals by the Democratic National Committee because they moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday (only IA, NH, SC and NV were authorized to hold early primary/caucuses). Hillary won Michigan (admitted against token opposition) and stands to win Florida big as well. If those delegates are seated, she could easily pick up a 150 delegate or more advantage over Obama from those two states. If they are not seated, you have a lot of unhappy Democrats in Michigan and Florida, the latter of which could be a key swing state this year.

If I were a bettor, I'd bet real money that the MI and FL delegates will be seated. The states are, as you note, too important to Democratic victory hopes to be denied, or for there to be bad blood in the party over this issue.

[NellyLunatic1980]

Add to this the fact that Florida and Michigan, with about 350 total delegates have been stripped of their totals by the Democratic National Committee because they moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday (only IA, NH, SC and NV were authorized to hold early primary/caucuses). Hillary won Michigan (admitted against token opposition) and stands to win Florida big as well. If those delegates are seated, she could easily pick up a 150 delegate or more advantage over Obama from those two states. If they are not seated, you have a lot of unhappy Democrats in Michigan and Florida, the latter of which could be a key swing state this year.

If I were a bettor, I'd bet real money that the MI and FL delegates will be seated. The states are, as you note, too important to Democratic victory hopes to be denied, or for there to be bad blood in the party over this issue.

It would be interesting to see where those delegates that are awarded to Mr. Uncommitted will go. Will all of them go to Obama? Will some go to Clinton?

This is gonna be a long year...

[peacock2121]

I had a pedicure yesterday. The shop is owned by someone I would say is either Korean or Vietnamese. He asked me how we decide who gets the nomination. Good thing I hadn't tried to tell him this stuff.

I did tell him that the person who wins states in the beginning will get it, as we as Americans tend to back the front runner. I might have said something about us being stoopid as well.

[silverscreenselect]

It would be interesting to see where those delegates that are awarded to Mr. Uncommitted will go. Will all of them go to Obama? Will some go to Clinton?

This is gonna be a long year...

Depending on the rules in Michigan, some or all of them will be chosen later by the state Democratic party. They may come through a series of delegate caucuses or they may just be selected by the party. In either event, it's hard to imagine all of them supporting one candidate. They will probably split roughly in half.

Again, even over their pledged delegates, the candidates have limited control over who becomes a delegate. It's not like the Electoral College, where each candidate submits a slate of presumably highly loyal electors before the election (and even with the Electoral College, there have been defections over the years).

A lot of times, the delegates wind up being people who show up at these delegate caucuses and make a favorable impression on the other people who show up. They also have to be willing to foot the bill for a week in Denver if chosen. And keep in mind the state party HAS to fudge the results so that the delegations are 50% female and is supposed to get them to reflect pre-determined levels of minorities in the state as well. That means playing games with voting totals at the state level (this doesn't effect how the delegates are pledged, just who the actual delegates wind up being).

And a pledge isn't binding and can't be enforced, by law suit or party rule or vote at the convention.