Soccer update

[Bob78164]

Exhaustive detail or not, the rankings have some obvious mistakes. Obviously, Uruguay and Chile are ranked much too high at this time. (His ranking of Uruguay, which still needs to get past Costa Rica to qualify, especially is laughable.)

It's not obvious to me. Would you care to elaborate? --Bob

[andrewjackson]

The USA has clinched a spot in South Africa 2010! USA won 3-2 vs Honduras in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. Earlier Mexico was the first in the CONCACAF region to clinch a spot with a 4-1 home spanking of El Salvador. Of Honduras and Costa Rica, one will be assured a spot and the other will have to play off vs the fifth-ranked team in South America. There was World Cup qualifying play throughout the world; the latest to clinch include Italy, Germany, Serbia, and Chile.

Nate Silver (formerly of Baseball Prospectus and more recently of FiveThirtyEight.com) unveiled today on ESPN his soccer rankings, which are explicitly intended to be predictive. The link explains Nate's methodology in his usual exhaustive detail. --Bob

Exhaustive detail or not, the rankings have some obvious mistakes. Obviously, Uruguay and Chile are ranked much too high at this time. (His ranking of Uruguay, which still needs to get past Costa Rica to qualify, especially is laughable.)

I will examine the methodology to see how he incorporates some of the nuances of the "beautiful game", particularly with international competition.

I don't think the ranking of Uruguay is laughable. I don't think Uruguay and Chile are "obviously" ranked too high. Chile finished in 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying only 1 point behind Brazil. Uruguay finished 5th in CONMEBOL qualifying but were 4th in the last Copa America losing to Brazil in the semi-finals on penalty kicks.

Portugal and France haven't qualified yet either and they are 7th and 9th.

I'm surprised by how low Italy is but it is an interesting system that tries to compensate for how seriously teams take particular matches based on what players are used.

He claims this is a predictive system. Let's see how well it works in the World Cup next year.

[Appa23]

Nate Silver (formerly of Baseball Prospectus and more recently of FiveThirtyEight.com) unveiled today on ESPN his soccer rankings, which are explicitly intended to be predictive. The link explains Nate's methodology in his usual exhaustive detail. --Bob

Exhaustive detail or not, the rankings have some obvious mistakes. Obviously, Uruguay and Chile are ranked much too high at this time. (His ranking of Uruguay, which still needs to get past Costa Rica to qualify, especially is laughable.)

I will examine the methodology to see how he incorporates some of the nuances of the "beautiful game", particularly with international competition.

I don't think the ranking of Uruguay is laughable. I don't think Uruguay and Chile are "obviously" ranked too high. Chile finished in 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying only 1 point behind Brazil. Uruguay finished 5th in CONMEBOL qualifying but were 4th in the last Copa America losing to Brazil in the semi-finals on penalty kicks.

Portugal and France haven't qualified yet either and they are 7th and 9th.

I'm surprised by how low Italy is but it is an interesting system that tries to compensate for how seriously teams take particular matches based on what players are used.

He claims this is a predictive system. Let's see how well it works in the World Cup next year.

I can see where you would look at the 2007 Copa America as having some relevence to how well Uruguay is playing right now. (For frame of reference, Mexico finsihed 3rd, beating Uruguay 3-1 in the 3rd place game.)

The first test of this ranking system will be this week, with the playoff games.


Bob, to me, this ranking system is akin to the computer rankings that had Iowa as being a better team than Florida, Alabama, and/or Texas. Arguably, it does a good job in the main, but there are clear examples of "this shows that the computer (programmer) does not see and understand the games."

[Rexer25]

I'm pretty sure his system is totally invalid. I combed the entire web page, and found no mention of the Gems.

[Appa23]

I'm pretty sure his system is totally invalid. I combed the entire web page, and found no mention of the Gems.

I thinking that he still is working on his ranking system for Under-10, Rec League Girls soccer. I have heard, unoffically, that the Gems stand 2nd, only .1 point behind a squad from a suburb of Sao Paulo.

[andrewjackson]

The first test of this ranking system will be this week, with the playoff games.

Good point. There are also some CAF matches but those are trickier since a lot of the teams have already been eliminated. The playoffs are much more clear-cut. I'm not sure how much leeway we should give the home team when comparing rankings. The formula assumes a +.57 goal advantage for home teams. I guess we can use that when evaluating results.

Nov. 14, 2009 (home team listed first)

(90) New Zealand v. (86) Bahrain
(13) Russia v. (40) Slovenia
(38) Ireland v. (9) France
(37) Greece v. (20) Ukraine
(7) Portugal v. (29) Bosnia & Herzegovina
(36) Costa Rica v. (10) Uruguay

This is the 2nd leg of the New Zealand/Bahrain series. The first leg was 0-0 in Bahrain so this is a winner-take-all game but the "away goal rule" is in play as the first tie-breaker so a 1-1 (or higher) tie would favor Bahrain. The other series will conclude on Nov. 18.

[Appa23]

We have one-half of the lineup for the 2009 MLS Cup.

The LA Galaxy beat AJ's Houston Dynamo 2-0 (in overtime) last night. Gregg Berhalter and Landon Donovan were the scorers.

The Galaxy now await the winner of Chicago Fire and Real Salt Lake.

I am eager to hear his report about the 2 times that the stadium lights went out during the game.

[andrewjackson]

We have one-half of the lineup for the 2009 MLS Cup.

The LA Galaxy beat AJ's Houston Dynamo 2-0 (in overtime) last night. Gregg Berhalter and Landon Donovan were the scorers.

The Galaxy now await the winner of Chicago Fire and Real Salt Lake.

I am eager to hear his report about the 2 times that the stadium lights went out during the game.

The lights going out was probably the high point of the night but only by comparison because everything else was total crap.


Sunday, Nov. 22
2009 MLS Cup, LA Galaxy v. Real Salt Lake, 8:30 EST on ESPN and Galavision.

I might watch but at this point I'm too depressed to think about it much.

[andrewjackson]

Results from Nov. 14, 2009:


(90) New Zealand 1-0 (86) Bahrain (aggregate from the two game series: NZL 1-0 BHR)

New Zealand advances to the 2010 World Cup. Very minor upset according to the ESPN rankings especially since New Zealand was at home

(13) Russia 2-1 (40) Slovenia
(38) Ireland 0-1 (9) France
(37) Greece 0-0 (20) Ukraine
(7) Portugal 1-0 (29) Bosnia & Herzegovina

I'd say these went pretty much according to the ESPN rankings. The better ranked team won in 3 of the games and Greece, while having a worse ranking, could only get the tie at home. These series conclude on Nov. 18.


(36) Costa Rica 0-1 (10) Uruguay

Right on form even with Uruguay on the road. Final game is Nov. 18.

[andrewjackson]

In slightly better MLS news, Philadelphia Union, an expansion team starting play in 2010, has unveiled their uniforms. We knew they were going to be some sort of blue and gold but they seem to have went sort of Pitt/Notre Dame on us. Have to wait to see it in person to tell for sure. No word yet on a shirt sponsor but it seems likely that they will have one before the season starts in March. The team will play their first few home games at Lincoln Financial Field before opening their new soccer stadium sometime in the summer.

[Snaxx]

In slightly better MLS news, Philadelphia Union, an expansion team starting play in 2010, has unveiled their uniforms. We knew they were going to be some sort of blue and gold but they seem to have went sort of Pitt/Notre Dame on us. Have to wait to see it in person to tell for sure. No word yet on a shirt sponsor but it seems likely that they will have one before the season starts in March. The team will play their first few home games at Lincoln Financial Field before opening their new soccer stadium sometime in the summer.

I had a feeling no way would the new stadium be ready in April. It looked a year behind Red Bull Arena which had many delays of its own, even though it is smaller and easier to build. I'll certainly see some games there though I remain a Red Bull NY season ticket holder and will be there with my father and my sister for RBNY games.

[andrewjackson]

Here is the Philly soccer stadium under construction. It is right on the Delaware River in Chester, PA.



And the new stadium for the New York Red Bulls in Harrison, NJ. It also opens next year:

[andrewjackson]

One vote so far today for the FIFA rankings over the ESPN ones:

(27) Egypt 0-1 Algeria (49)

Algeria was ranked 29th in the FIFA rankings while Egypt was 28th.

This was a game played on a neutral site in Sudan to decide the final African qualifier.

[andrewjackson]

Another vote for the FIFA rankings over the ESPN ones.

(18) Ukraine 0-1 Greece (36)

Greece was #16 in the FIFA rankings while Ukraine was #22.

Greece advances to the World Cup.

Only 4 more teams to be determined.

[andrewjackson]

More European results from Nov. 18:

(29) Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-1 (7) Portugal - Portugal advances on aggregate, 2-0

ESPN rankings hold up in this series.

(40) Slovenia 1-0 (13) Russia - The aggregate was 2-2 but Slovenia advances on away goals, 1-0.

ESPN rankings miss this one but the FIFA rankings have it as even more of an upset. Russia is #12 in FIFA while Slovenia is #49.

(9) France 1-1 (38) Ireland (aet) - France has to score in overtime to advance on aggregate, 2-1.

A miss by the ESPN rankings for the game since Ireland won in regulation at France but an overall win for ESPN since France does advance.


One more game tonight.

[SportsFan68]

Turns out, a pair of goals was all that was necessary, so the nation's No. 1 team and top-ranked offense scored three in a 3-1 postseason victory against No. 3 West Texas A&M on Sunday at Dirks Field to advance to the quarterfinals of the NCAA Division II Men's Soccer Championships.

"We've earned the right to put ourselves in a position for greatness," said Kennedy, whose side will host the winner of Cal State Dominguez Hills and Cal State Los Angeles.

Just in case of any of y'all want to cheer for Fort Lewis College (my alma mater) in Division II.

[Snaxx]

The last game was Uruguay 1-1 Costa Rica. Uruguay's 1-0 win Saturday at Costa Rica holds and takes them to the World Cup.

At about 5PM Eastern I saw two cars going by in South Philly tooting their horns with the people waving Algerian flags through the windows and a sun roof.

[andrewjackson]

The 32 team field is set for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

The Draw is December 4 in Cape Town. There will be four pots from which teams are drawn for the eight groups that begin play on June 11, 2010. One pot will be the top 8 seeds. Another pot will have the remaining European teams. The two remaining pots will have the African, South American, North American, Oceania, and Asian teams in some combination. This is to ensure some geographic diversity among the groups.

The exact seeding process and pots have not been announced.


Host
South Africa

AFC
Australia
South Korea
Japan
North Korea

Oceania
New Zealand

CAF
Cameroon
Nigeria
Algeria
Ghana
Côte d'Ivoire

CONCACAF
U.S.A.
Mexico
Honduras

CONMEBOL
Brazil
Chile
Paraguay
Argentina
Uruguay

UEFA
Denmark
Switzerland
Slovakia
Germany
Spain
England
Serbia
Italy
Netherlands
Slovenia
Greece
Portugal
France

[Snaxx]

MLS Cup final:

Spoiler

Real Salt Lake wins in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw vs LA Galaxy in Seattle.

The surprise was seeing Landon Donovan (LA) pull a Roberto Baggio and kick his shot over the bar. The selfish US Soccer fan in me says if he has to do that once, let it be in the MLS instead of in a big spot for the US National team.

[andrewjackson]

MLS Cup final:

Spoiler

Real Salt Lake wins in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw vs LA Galaxy in Seattle.

The surprise was seeing Landon Donovan (LA) pull a Roberto Baggio and kick his shot over the bar. The selfish US Soccer fan in me says if he has to do that once, let it be in the MLS instead of in a big spot for the US National team.

Spoiler

I had pretty much the same reaction, "Donovan, you are not allowed to do that again for at least a year".

MLS Cup winners, all-time:

D.C. United - 4
Los Angeles Galaxy - 2
Houston Dynamo - 2
San Jose Earthquakes - 2
Chicago Fire - 1
Kansas City Wizards - 1
Columbus Crew - 1
Real Salt Lake - 1

[Appa23]

MLS Cup final:

Spoiler

Real Salt Lake wins in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw vs LA Galaxy in Seattle.

The surprise was seeing Landon Donovan (LA) pull a Roberto Baggio and kick his shot over the bar. The selfish US Soccer fan in me says if he has to do that once, let it be in the MLS instead of in a big spot for the US National team.[/spoiler

]

Spoiler

I was surprised to see Donovan miss. The remaining misses I could foresee, as the players all "told" where they were going with body languge. There were several incredibly well-taken kicks placed right into the corners.

Maybe I should work with Donovan (and the rest of the USMNT) before the 2010 World Cup.

[SportsFan68]

GO SKYHAWKS!!!!!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No. 1 Fort Lewis College to play No. 6 Le Moyne

. . .

Le Moyne, the sixth-ranked side in the country, defeated No. 22 Southern New Hampshire 3-2 in shootouts Sunday in Syracuse.

. . .
FLC (22-1-0) will play Le Moyne (17-2-3) on Dec. 3 at the University of Tampa. Times of the national semifinals have not yet been released.

. . .

The championship game will be played Dec. 5 in Tampa, Fla.

. . .

[andrewjackson]

MLS Cup final:

Spoiler

Real Salt Lake wins in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw vs LA Galaxy in Seattle.

The surprise was seeing Landon Donovan (LA) pull a Roberto Baggio and kick his shot over the bar. The selfish US Soccer fan in me says if he has to do that once, let it be in the MLS instead of in a big spot for the US National team.[/spoiler

]

Spoiler

I was surprised to see Donovan miss. The remaining misses I could foresee, as the players all "told" where they were going with body languge. There were several incredibly well-taken kicks placed right into the corners. Maybe I should work with Donovan and the rest of the USMNT before the 2010 World Cup.

Spoiler

Donovan is normally very, very good on PKs. No one else that took PKs last night is likely to ever appear for the USMNT.

[Appa23]

MLS Cup final:

Spoiler

Real Salt Lake wins in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw vs LA Galaxy in Seattle.

The surprise was seeing Landon Donovan (LA) pull a Roberto Baggio and kick his shot over the bar. The selfish US Soccer fan in me says if he has to do that once, let it be in the MLS instead of in a big spot for the US National team.[/spoiler

]

Spoiler

I was surprised to see Donovan miss. The remaining misses I could foresee, as the players all "told" where they were going with body languge. There were several incredibly well-taken kicks placed right into the corners. Maybe I should work with Donovan and the rest of the USMNT before the 2010 World Cup.

Spoiler

Donovan is normally very, very good on PKs. No one else that took PKs last night is likely to ever appear for the USMNT.

I know, AJ.

[andrewjackson]

Spoiler

I was surprised to see Donovan miss. The remaining misses I could foresee, as the players all "told" where they were going with body languge. There were several incredibly well-taken kicks placed right into the corners. Maybe I should work with Donovan and the rest of the USMNT before the 2010 World Cup.

Spoiler

Donovan is normally very, very good on PKs. No one else that took PKs last night is likely to ever appear for the USMNT.

I know, AJ.

Well, why then would you say you should work with the Donovan and the rest of the USMNT before the World Cup?

Or do the smileys mean ignore everything I've just said?