How the Iowa Caucuses Work

[silverscreenselect]

I've read up a bit on how the Iowa caucuses work and it is bizarre to say the least. It also indicates why all of the numbers that have been thrown around in polls may be of little value come January 3. This information is about the Democratic caucus, but I believe the Republican one works the same way.

First, the state as a whole has about 2500 delegates chosen on caucus night. These are the people whose votes actually count, and if the election results say Obama has gotten 30% of the "vote," it means he got 30% of these 2500. The delegates to the Democratic convention are chosen proportionally on the same basis, so Obama, in this case would get 30% of the Iowa delegates at the Democratic convention.

The 2500 delegates are assigned by county on the basis of how well the county supported Democratic candidates in the last presidential and gubernatorial election. So counties that voted more heavily for Kerry and Gov. Culver in the last two elections get more delegates than other counties. The ten largest (of 99 total) counties have over half the delegates.

On Jan 3, voters show up at their local precinct to vote for delegates to their county caucus. You have to stay for what can be several hours until the process is settled. Everyone votes publicly by essentially standing in one group or another, so lobbying of voters happens frequently. Each precinct is preassigned a certain number of delegates to the county convention, usually four to nine per precinct, so it doesnt' matter if ten people or 1000 people show up in a precinct, its allotted number of delegates has already been pre-determined.

You can vote for a candidate or as uncommitted. Then they do a preliminary tally of the votes and the delegates are tentatively assigned in accordance with the percentages. So if Clinton has 40% of the vote and Obama and Edwards 30% each, the delegates would be assigned as close to 4-3-3 as they can get it.

Here's where it gets interesting. A candidate has to have at least 15% of the vote in a precinct to get a delegate (25% in smaller precincts). So if Bill Richardson gets 10% of the vote, his supporters are S.O.L. At this point, however, followers of each candidate can lobby others for support. In this case, Richardson might be able to peel off enough voters from another candidate to get to 15% or one of the major candidates might be able to get his supporters to back them and get them more delegates. The math can get rather complicated, and in some cases it's better for the second place candidate to allow some of his or her voters to support the #3 or #4 person than remain in his group. When everyone is satisfied (and this can take hours) the final tallies are posted and the 4-9 (in most coutnies, although some small rural precincts may only have one delegate) to the county convention are chosen.

The county and state conventions will be held later but once the precinct delegates are chosen, those results can be calculated fairly easily.

From this, it might appear that candidates who do better in the big counties would be at an advantage, but in actuality, it takes fewer voters to win a delegate from a rural county than an urban one. One of the reasons that Howard Dean fared so poorly was that his base included a lot of student voters who wound up concentrated in a small number of precincts so that their voting power was diluted. In many rural precincts, he couldn't get any delegates at all. It took about 80 voters in Iowa City, home of the U. of Iowa to gain one state delegate, while it took about 23 in the smallest rural county. Candidates who have wide support in the state will fare better than those who have heavy support in a more concentrated area.

Second place choices are important, but more often of the lesser candidates. Clinton, Obama and Edwards will probably be above the minimum 15% threshhold in the vast majority of counties, but Dodd, Richardson, Biden and Kucinich will not. Their supporters will have to decide whether to band together to get one of them over the 15% threshhold or back one of the big three. Even the big three can be out of luck in some precincts. 2004 winner John Kerry got no delegates in over 200 of state's 1800 precincts. The math can get very complicated and the candidates' precinct captains will have some pretty sophisticated spreadsheets available to help them decide their strategy.

What it's all going to boil down to is who gets out the vote in each precinct, how committed that vote is, each campaign's overall strategy as to swapping around votes, and how quick on their feet the precinct captains are for each candidate. The right or wrong strategy can easily sway a few delegate totals in a few precincts which will be enough to make the eventual difference. For example, if Edwards should be below 15% in a precinct and can't get to the total, will his backers be instructed to support Obama or Hillary, and even if instructed, will they do so? Might one of the big three strike a back room deal with Richardson or Biden to swing support their way?

All of this makes for an interesting evening a good indication of why all these polls have to be taken with a grain of salt right now.

[MarleysGh0st]

Sounds like Jeff Probst should be hosting the event.

[Rexer25]

Sounds like Jeff Probst should be hosting the event.

I think Monte Hall would be more appropriate.

Excuse me, ma'am, but if you're carrying a paper clip in your purse, you can join the Kucinich delegates, over in the corner by the broken fan.

[MarleysGh0st]

Sounds like Jeff Probst should be hosting the event.

I think Monte Hall would be more appropriate.

But Jeff is so good at going to "tally the votes"--always managing to read them in the order that maximizes the drawn-out suspense and all!

[Rexer25]

Sounds like Jeff Probst should be hosting the event.

I think Monte Hall would be more appropriate.

But Jeff is so good at going to "tally the votes"--always managing to read them in the order that maximizes the drawn-out suspense and all!

He only has to count about 8 votes at most on his show...can you iimage after the 36 person has been situated:

"okay, that's 12 votes Hillary, 11 votes Barach, 10 votes John, 2 votes Bill, and 1 vote Dennis. The next vote is for...hey wait! You go back to that other group until I finish tallying the votes!"

And just wait until someone pulls out the hidden delegate idol!

[Sir_Galahad]

And after all of this what does it mean? I mean, what does it mean who wins the caucus? Do they then get Iowa's delegate votes come primary time? If not, then the only significance I can see in this year's caucus is if Madame Clinton loses. The cloak of invincibility will have been shredded. This, in and of itself, is a good thing.

[Rexer25]

And after all of this what does it mean? I mean, what does it mean who wins the caucus? Do they then get Iowa's delegate votes come primary time? If not, then the only significance I can see in this year's caucus is if Madame Clinton loses. The cloak of invincibility will have been shredded. This, in and of itself, is a good thing.

Iowa doesn't have a presidential primary. The candidates will receive delegates to the national nominating convention based on the percentage of "votes" they receive in the caucus. So, after all the wheeling and dealing, it's about which Joe Ioway gets to go to the convention, and who he'll cast his vote for there on the first ballot.

I'm getting to where I'd rather just put all the names in an old Crown Royal bag, and pull out the winner.

[MarleysGh0st]

And after all of this what does it mean? I mean, what does it mean who wins the caucus? Do they then get Iowa's delegate votes come primary time?

No primary in Iowa, but, yes, this arcane process will determine the Iowa delegates for the national conventions. The boost to the publicity, fundraising and "Big Mo" will mean far, far more than that tiny delegate count, of course.

[gsabc]

I'm getting to where I'd rather just put all the names in an old Crown Royal bag, and pull out the winner.

Make it a new Crown Royal bag and I'm in! Especially if I'm drinking from its original contents.

[wbtravis007]

Thanks for the explanation, sss. Quite a bit of info in there that I didn't know.

I think it would be fun to participate.

[Rexer25]

I think it would be fun to participate.

It might be fun if you can go in saying you're leaning toward supporting one of the "lower-tier" candidates, or undecided. There might be a fair amount of "offers" that might come your way. But you should know that every candidate has precinct workers that are trying to keep everyone loyal while the precinct chairperson might be making deals in his precinct to balance out another precinct. It might be fun, but it might be confusing as well, and if you go in without a firm mind set, you could get bullied into supporting someone who you really don't want.

[wbtravis007]

I think it would be fun to participate.

It might be fun if you can go in saying you're leaning toward supporting one of the "lower-tier" candidates, or undecided. There might be a fair amount of "offers" that might come your way. But you should know that every candidate has precinct workers that are trying to keep everyone loyal while the precinct chairperson might be making deals in his precinct to balance out another precinct. It might be fun, but it might be confusing as well, and if you go in without a firm mind set, you could get bullied into supporting someone who you really don't want.

Letterman said something like: "The only thing that you can know for sure about in life is that if you pull out a nose hair you'll sneeze. That's it. Nothing else."

I just thought of something else: I can say with absolute certainty that if I were to go to a caucus, I would not be bullied into supporting someone I didn't like. Hell, if I had to I'd just pull out a nose hair and sneeze on anybody who'd try to bully me.

[Sir_Galahad]

I think it would be fun to participate.

I may actually get the chance in the next election. Lady G and I are strongly considering moving to Iowa so that she can be closer to her daughter and a closer drive to her family in Canada. We drove up there is September and seems like a nice place to live.

[mrkelley23]

I think it would be fun to participate.

I may actually get the chance in the next election. Lady G and I are strongly considering moving to Iowa so that she can be closer to her daughter and a closer drive to her family in Canada. We drove up there is September and seems like a nice place to live.

Try driving up there in January before you make a final decision.

But yes, the people I know who've moved there have loved it, for the most part.

[Appa23]

I think it would be fun to participate.

I may actually get the chance in the next election. Lady G and I are strongly considering moving to Iowa so that she can be closer to her daughter and a closer drive to her family in Canada. We drove up there is September and seems like a nice place to live.

Where in Iowa would you want to move?

There are many lovely palces, but there also is a huge issue with hog farms in the more rural areas (and really, Iowa essentially is all rural. )

[Sir_Galahad]

Where in Iowa would you want to move?

There are many lovely palces, but there also is a huge issue with hog farms in the more rural areas (and really, Iowa essentially is all rural. )

She lives in Des Moines and that's where we visited. We took a nice tour of the state capitol building and I was impressed with the library. We'd probably want to move within 30 minutes or so of her. I haven't checked the map for cities close by but that's the preliminary plan thus far.

[Sir_Galahad]

Try driving up there in January before you make a final decision.

But yes, the people I know who've moved there have loved it, for the most part.

We have checked the yearly weather averages and they do not seem nearly that bad. Not as temperate as here in SC but not nearly as drastic as up in Minneapolis.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

And after all of this what does it mean? I mean, what does it mean who wins the caucus? Do they then get Iowa's delegate votes come primary time? If not, then the only significance I can see in this year's caucus is if Madame Clinton loses. The cloak of invincibility will have been shredded. This, in and of itself, is a good thing.

I think you mean "convention time" rather than "primary time", since the Caucus is in place of a primary.

I'm pretty sure they keep their delegates regardless of whether they win or lose, i.e. I don't think Iowa is a "winner take all" state.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

...First, the state as a whole has about 2500 delegates chosen on caucus night...

...2004 winner John Kerry got no delegates in over 200 of state's 1800 precincts...

Am I missing something here? Doesn't 2500 delegates from 1800 precincts mean that most precincts get only one delegate?

[Bob Juch]

Try driving up there in January before you make a final decision.

But yes, the people I know who've moved there have loved it, for the most part.

We have checked the yearly weather averages and they do not seem nearly that bad. Not as temperate as here in SC but not nearly as drastic as up in Minneapolis.

Yeah, it's only -5° when it's -10° in Minnesota.

[silverscreenselect]

...First, the state as a whole has about 2500 delegates chosen on caucus night...

...2004 winner John Kerry got no delegates in over 200 of state's 1800 precincts...

Am I missing something here? Doesn't 2500 delegates from 1800 precincts mean that most precincts get only one delegate?

The precincts elect delegates to the county caucus. Then the delegates at the county caucus elect the 2500 state delegates. So a county might have 100 delegates from the various precincts who will go to the county caucus and in turn elect 30 (of the 2500) delegates to the state caucus. Those 2500 will select Iowa's 50 or so national delegates to the Democratic convention.

[SportsFan68]

It works the same way in Colorado, 15% threshold and all. Our candidate selection usually doesn't take hours, though. My precinct has two of the biggest environmentalists in the county in it, so they generally want to get the candidate selection out of the way and on to the resolutions.

It is fun. I've been a precinct captain for more than 20 years, and I'll stick with it as long as they'll have me.

[silverscreenselect]

Some updates on my original post:

1) Anyone who will be 18 by election day in November, 2008 can vote in either Iowa caucus, so most 17-year-olds can vote. You can register or re-register when you show up at the caucus, so party registration in advance is not required.

2) The county conventions are held in March and the state conventions (when the actual national convention delegates are chosen) are held in May and June.

3) The Republican vote is a secret ballot written straw poll. The voters get to hear a few speeches from the candidates' supporters then cast their votes which are phoned into state party headquarters which, at the end of the night will post the "official" results.

However, after that straw vote is taken, the voters who hang around will get to choose the delegates to the March county convention. While any precinct can make rules to award voters on a proportional basis, it's usually winner-take-all. So if a precinct gets five delegates to the county convention and it votes: Huckabee 40% Romney 30% McCain 20% Others 10%, presumably Huckabee would get all five delegates. Anyone who leaves before the actual delegate voting is out of luck so if Huckabee voters go home early, someone else could win. While I haven't gotten any confirmation on this, it would seem that supporters of the losing candidates could team up to pick the delegates if the winner didn't have a clear majority, but it appears that maneuvering of this nature is rarely done in practice.

Technically, the Democratic delegates to the county and state convention are not legally committed to a candidate either, but they are usually chosen for being loyalists who, in the event of an actual contested convention, would be highly likely to follow their candidate's instructions.