Election Poll Oddities

[TheCalvinator24]

The national poll has been expanding the past few days in favor of Obama, while the battleground states' polls have been tightening, and even having 2 flip back to McCain (Missouri & North Carolina).

If both factors are correct, it probably means that McCain is doing okay where he is campaigning, and is getting left in the dust in the "blue" states where he is not.

[Jeemie]

The national poll has been expanding the past few days in favor of Obama, while the battleground states' polls have been tightening, and even having 2 flip back to McCain (Missouri & North Carolina).

If both factors are correct, it probably means that McCain is doing okay where he is campaigning, and is getting left in the dust in the "blue" states where he is not.

I don't even want to think of what will happen this time if McCain somehow wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote.

[peacock2121]

The national poll has been expanding the past few days in favor of Obama, while the battleground states' polls have been tightening, and even having 2 flip back to McCain (Missouri & North Carolina).

If both factors are correct, it probably means that McCain is doing okay where he is campaigning, and is getting left in the dust in the "blue" states where he is not.

I don't even want to think of what will happen this time if McCain somehow wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote.

Joe Scarborough is talking about that - trying to prepare America for the possibility that it will happen.

[danielh41]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

[TheCalvinator24]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

I like the Electoral College system, and I want it to remain.

That said, a McCain Electoral College victory with an Obama win in the popular vote (especially if it isn't close like it was in 2000) would be a nightmare scenario even though my preferred candidate would wind up in the White House.

Imagine the outcry from those who only recently got involved in the process.

Yes, I believe that such a scenario would cause wide-scale rioting. I hope I am wrong about that.

[silverscreenselect]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

The 2000 election showed why abolishing the electoral college and going to a straight popular vote is a bad idea. If a state the size of Florida could come down to a couple of hundred votes, so could a national election, and in that case, instead of one recount, you'd be looking at 51, with legal challenges and conflicts left and right. We literally might not know for months who won the election with bitterness mounting every single day.

[silverscreenselect]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

That said, a McCain Electoral College victory with an Obama win in the popular vote (especially if it isn't close like it was in 2000) would be a nightmare scenario even though my preferred candidate would wind up in the White House.

Imagine the outcry from those who only recently got involved in the process.

Yes, I believe that such a scenario would cause wide-scale rioting. I hope I am wrong about that.

Sort of like Hillary getting more popular votes but fewer pledged delegates.

[BackInTex]

The national poll has been expanding the past few days in favor of Obama, while the battleground states' polls have been tightening, and even having 2 flip back to McCain (Missouri & North Carolina).

If both factors are correct, it probably means that McCain is doing okay where he is campaigning, and is getting left in the dust in the "blue" states where he is not.

I don't even want to think of what will happen this time if McCain somehow wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote.

I believe I mentioned something last week.

[danielh41]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

The 2000 election showed why abolishing the electoral college and going to a straight popular vote is a bad idea. If a state the size of Florida could come down to a couple of hundred votes, so could a national election, and in that case, instead of one recount, you'd be looking at 51, with legal challenges and conflicts left and right. We literally might not know for months who won the election with bitterness mounting every single day.

I'm not in favor of abolishing the electoral college, but I can see how a movement to get it abolished would occur if the scenario I described above takes place.

[silverscreenselect]

The national poll has been expanding the past few days in favor of Obama, while the battleground states' polls have been tightening, and even having 2 flip back to McCain (Missouri & North Carolina).

Some pollsters use their final poll or two as an attempt to bring their findings in line with what they think the final result is going to be. Zogby is very bad at this, but others do it as well, usually claiming that they are "allocating the undecideds" or "reviewing party affiliation." What it really means is that they are fudging the final result to get it where they think it should be rather than what their own models show it to be. IBD, which had been showing the closest race, went from Obama +2.1 to Obama +7.2 in the last 24 hours. That wasn't due to a flood of last minute support for Obama; it was done to get their results in line with everyone else.

If one pollster were to show McCain ahead, he would either be hailed tomorrow as a genius or ridiculed as a complete idiot.

Obama hasn't been able to pull in the undecideds and soft voters in any election up until now, and most of the states that are close are ones he didn't do that well in before. To a large extent the election has been a two-step decision making process. (1) Are people happy with the way Bush has been running things? The answer to that has been overwhelmingly no. and (2) Is Obama sufficiently risk-free to get moderates to vote for him? This is what he hasn't been able to convince people to do up until now, and if all the money he's spent and the adoring press haven't done that, then they're not going to now. I believe the undecided vote will split 3 or 4 to 1 for McCain and that a good bit of "soft" Obama support will also disappear when push comes to shove.

[Bob78164]

Considering the population in New York and California and the percentage of voters going for obama in those states, McCain could lose the popular vote by several points and still win the electoral vote. This election could be the catalyst that sparks the elimination of the electoral college.

McCain is racking up comparable margins in the middle of the country. According to fivethirtyeight.com, there's a slightly better chance that Obama could win the election despite losing the popular vote to McCain than the other way around. Neither possibility is at all likely, though. --Bob