How Obama Could Lose

[silverscreenselect]

If either or both candidates thought the election was over, they would be spending time this week in Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia rather than Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The odds don't favor McCain, but there are enough odd polling results and indications from early voting that it's not going to be the cakewalk Obama supporters would like. There are two realistic scenarios for McCain to win, both assuming that states like NC, FL, MO, IN and NV break in his favor. Either he wins PA or he wins one of CO and VA. Neither of those scenarios is that farfetched. There are signs in a number of key states like FL and NC that the early youth vote is lagging behind expectations and Obama may be yet the latest Democrat to go down believing in the youth vote (and it's been his claims about the youth vote that have caused a number of the polls to skew their sampling).

A lot of the feedback I'm hearing from Obama supporters is increased nervousness about this entire situation.

The latest news is that Obama will win even if he loses all of the "battleground" states.

It all depends on what your definition of "battleground" state is. If it's the states that both candidates are actively contesting, McCain has to win most but not all of them. If it's the states that one poll or another currently says are within the margin of error, then that's not the case.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

There are two realistic scenarios for McCain to win, both assuming that states like NC, FL, MO, IN and NV break in his favor. Either he wins PA or he wins one of CO and VA. Neither of those scenarios is that farfetched.

I think your electoral math is wrong for the "or he wins one of CO and VA" part. In the McCain-doesn't-win-PA part of the scenario, you're assuming Obama wins all of the Kerry States, right? That's 251. Not even you think Iowa or New Mexico are in play, right? At least neither one of them is in your list of states above. So that's 263. If McCain wins all the other states - he pulls out NC, FL, OH, MO, IN and NV - but he wins only one of CO and VA, he gets 266 Electoral Votes if it's Virginia and 262 if it's Colorado. If you win less than 270 EVs and your last name isn't Bush, you don't become President.

Bush beat Kerry 286-252 (technically 251 since one Kerry elector voted for John Edwards). If Obama adds IA-7 and NM-5, that would make it 274-264. PA has 21 electoral votes, VA 13 and CO 9. If Obama flips either VA or CO he wins, unless McCain flips PA in which case, even if Obama takes both VA and CO, it's 273-265.

Not likely, but still possible.

Essentially taking PA allows McCain to lose two or three smaller states and still win.

You're right about the 252 vs 251. I think you're saying I'm right about McCain needing BOTH of CO and VA if he doesn't win PA, rather than just one.

[Bob78164]

If either or both candidates thought the election was over, they would be spending time this week in Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia rather than Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The odds don't favor McCain, but there are enough odd polling results and indications from early voting that it's not going to be the cakewalk Obama supporters would like. There are two realistic scenarios for McCain to win, both assuming that states like NC, FL, MO, IN and NV break in his favor. Either he wins PA or he wins one of CO and VA. Neither of those scenarios is that farfetched. There are signs in a number of key states like FL and NC that the early youth vote is lagging behind expectations and Obama may be yet the latest Democrat to go down believing in the youth vote (and it's been his claims about the youth vote that have caused a number of the polls to skew their sampling).

A lot of the feedback I'm hearing from Obama supporters is increased nervousness about this entire situation.

The latest news is that Obama will win even if he loses all of the "battleground" states.

That depends on your definition of battleground states. Some people still believe that either Pennsylvania or Colorado are battleground states. I'm inclined to disagree, but I'm happy that the media is helping this to look like a horse race. I wouldn't want the campaign to suffer from complacency among its supporters. --Bob