Is it possible for there to exist the opposite of the Bradley Effect?
Now granted I live in the land of cowboys, rednecks, goat ropers and the occasional racist, so this scenario might not be plausible in more civilized areas, but today at my work (blue collar, Texas to the bone, Pearl beer drinking sorts) I heard one of the truck drivers remark that if he was going to vote for Obama he sure wouldn't tell anybody. I kind of pushed him on the issue to discover that it really was a racism issue and he wasn't prepared to deal with any backlash. Then a handful of the other drivers chimed in with the same sentiments.
It just got me to wondering.
I Been Thinking......(Political)
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Bob78164
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Re: I Been Thinking......(Political)
Yes. Nate Silver found evidence of a Reverse Bradley effect in the South. He has some speculation as to what might cause it. --BobDevilKitty100 wrote:Is it possible for there to exist the opposite of the Bradley Effect?
Now granted I live in the land of cowboys, rednecks, goat ropers and the occasional racist, so this scenario might not be plausible in more civilized areas, but today at my work (blue collar, Texas to the bone, Pearl beer drinking sorts) I heard one of the truck drivers remark that if he was going to vote for Obama he sure wouldn't tell anybody. I kind of pushed him on the issue to discover that it really was a racism issue and he wasn't prepared to deal with any backlash. Then a handful of the other drivers chimed in with the same sentiments.
It just got me to wondering.
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson
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Beebs52
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Re: I Been Thinking......(Political)
Depending on the numbers involved, would both effects cancel one another out or actually swing particular states prone to them?
I guess my point would be polls are extremely suspect in the long run, for a huge variety of reasons, in those areas "traditionally" affected by this sort of thing.
I guess my point would be polls are extremely suspect in the long run, for a huge variety of reasons, in those areas "traditionally" affected by this sort of thing.
Well, then
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wbtravis007
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Re: I Been Thinking......(Political)
The boys in Prediction Services have been factoring this in for quite awhile.DevilKitty100 wrote:Is it possible for there to exist the opposite of the Bradley Effect?
Now granted I live in the land of cowboys, rednecks, goat ropers and the occasional racist, so this scenario might not be plausible in more civilized areas, but today at my work (blue collar, Texas to the bone, Pearl beer drinking sorts) I heard one of the truck drivers remark that if he was going to vote for Obama he sure wouldn't tell anybody. I kind of pushed him on the issue to discover that it really was a racism issue and he wasn't prepared to deal with any backlash. Then a handful of the other drivers chimed in with the same sentiments.
It just got me to wondering.
They figure that there aren't too many people around here (and a lot of other places) who are gonna be ashamed to say that they're not gonna vote for Obama, and that there are quite a few who are too insecure to say that they are gonna vote for Him [upper case intentional, just for fun], but have or will.
That's one of the reasons that we're sticking to our long-standing prediction that Obama is going to beat McCain's ass like a drum. (Granted, it's a sagging drum, but still.)
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DevilKitty100
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Re: I Been Thinking......(Political)
Hey, HEY, HEEYYY!!!!! Some of us just have parts that go south sooner than others.wbtravis007 wrote:The boys in Prediction Services have been factoring this in for quite awhile.DevilKitty100 wrote:Is it possible for there to exist the opposite of the Bradley Effect?
Now granted I live in the land of cowboys, rednecks, goat ropers and the occasional racist, so this scenario might not be plausible in more civilized areas, but today at my work (blue collar, Texas to the bone, Pearl beer drinking sorts) I heard one of the truck drivers remark that if he was going to vote for Obama he sure wouldn't tell anybody. I kind of pushed him on the issue to discover that it really was a racism issue and he wasn't prepared to deal with any backlash. Then a handful of the other drivers chimed in with the same sentiments.
It just got me to wondering.
They figure that there aren't too many people around here (and a lot of other places) who are gonna be ashamed to say that they're not gonna vote for Obama, and that there are quite a few who are too insecure to say that they are gonna vote for Him [upper case intentional, just for fun], but have or will.
That's one of the reasons that we're sticking to our long-standing prediction that Obama is going to beat McCain's ass like a drum. (Granted, it's a sagging drum, but still.)