Over Registration Skewing Polls

[silverscreenselect]

Here's another possible source of bias in the polls, people claiming to be registered when they talk to a pollster who actually aren't:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/lundry_a_ ... of_bra.php

As with most of the other possible sources of bias, we won't know until it's over.

[nitrah55]

Wouldn't that be offset by all the people who ARE registered, but are dead?

[Timsterino]

Here's another possible source of bias in the polls, people claiming to be registered when they talk to a pollster who actually aren't:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/lundry_a_ ... of_bra.php

As with most of the other possible sources of bias, we won't know until it's over.

Someone did a very unscientific poll while I waited on line to vote. Not one person in a very long line said they were voting for McCain. Take it for what it is. I do know that I live in a very democrat heavy district, like I said very unscientific.

The truth is we will not know until it's over like you said. I am certainly not planning any celebrations yet.

[silverscreenselect]

Here's another possible source of bias in the polls, people claiming to be registered when they talk to a pollster who actually aren't:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/lundry_a_ ... of_bra.php

As with most of the other possible sources of bias, we won't know until it's over.

Someone did a very unscientific poll while I waited on line to vote. Not one person in a very long line said they were voting for McCain. Take it for what it is. I do know that I live in a very democrat heavy district, like I said very unscientific.

The truth is we will not know until it's over like you said. I am certainly not planning any celebrations yet.

Polling is like the formulas they've used over the years to determine the BCS standings. They get a bad result and get egg on their face so they go back to the drawing board and correct that problem only to wind up with egg on their face the next year because their new methodology results in a different bad result. All they can do is come up with a methodology which would have predicted the last race correctly.