Although I agree with Nelly

[TheCalvinator24]

that National polls mean very little, I would like to point out that the RCP average is at Obama +4.8%

I believe I said it was between a 4 and 5 point race.

It may still swing significantly before November 4th, but this race (at least nationally) is a lot closer than some want to believe.

[silverscreenselect]

Polling is never an exact science, and this year it's tougher than ever. Trying to figure out how many of the young voters will actually show up for Obama and how many of the Palin/Joe the plumber fans will show up for McCain is difficult. While the surge in registrations appears to favor Obama, if a lot of them are dubious (Mickey Mouse and the Dallas Cowboys), then that may effect some of the polling models being used.

And I do think that a number of people are understating their preference for McCain for a number of reasons, most of them non-racial.

Early exit polling can be suspect (Kerry "appeared" to be a big winner election night) because of interviewer bias, and that may be even more evident this election. Exit pollsters tend to be young people and their attempts to get "random" voters to announce their choices may be badly skewed.