Let's get ready to pick a President

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bazodee · #1 Post by **bazodee** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:10 am

Having won the Bored Vice-Presidential candidates pick 'em poll, I didn't realize it was my obligation to conduct the Election Poll.

IMHO, we all have enough information to pick the winners.
Here's the suggested format:

POPULAR VOTE:

Predict percentage of popular vote received by Obama, McCain and Other.
Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100%

ELECTORAL VOTE:

Predict how many electoral votes Obama and McCain will be entitled to after the votes are counted (we won't consider the possibility of faithless electors). Remember that Nebraska and Maine allow for proportional distribution of their votes. The sum of your votes must add up to 538.

My predictions:

Obama =53%
McCain = 46%
Other = 1%

Obama = 319 electoral votes
McCain = 219 electoral votes

Vote only once unless you live in Cook County or are already dead.

MarleysGh0st · #2 Post by **MarleysGh0st** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:18 am

bazodee wrote: Vote only once unless you live in Cook County or are already dead.

Bored persona dead or secret identity dead?

nitrah55 · #3 Post by **nitrah55** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:20 am

I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3

Obama: 322
McCain: 216

And this is as good a time as any to announce that I'm planning to again run the quadrennial Board Election Prediction Poll wherein participants get points for picking which states go for which candidates, and the winner gets a valuable prize, courtesy of me.

I will be setting this up in mid-October.

danielh41 · #4 Post by **danielh41** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:35 am

Popular vote

McCain 49
Obama 48
Other 3

Electoral vote

McCain/Palin 295
Obama/Biden 243

Sir_Galahad · #5 Post by **Sir_Galahad** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:59 am

Popular Vote:

McCain: 52%
Obama: 46%
Other: 2%

Electoral:

McCain: 292
Obama: 246

NellyLunatic1980 · #6 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:21 am

Popular Vote

Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%
Barr - 2%
Others - 1%

Electoral College

Obama - 285 (he will win Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia)
McCain - 252
Abstention - 1

#7 Post by **eyégor** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:28 pm

Obama 48%
McCain 48%
Others/void/spindled/mutilated/etc 4%

Electoral vote

Obama 273
McCain 265

duh- fuzzy math indeed

revised to

Obama 49%
McCain 49%
Others etc. 2% (no chads)

EV

Obama 269
McCain 269

TheCalvinator24 · #8 Post by **TheCalvinator24** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:42 pm

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3

Obama: 322
McCain: 216

And this is as good a time as any to announce that I'm planning to again run the quadrennial Board Election Prediction Poll wherein participants get points for picking which states go for which candidates, and the winner gets a valuable prize, courtesy of me.

I will be setting this up in mid-October.

Aw come on! Couldn't you have acknowledged the reigning champ?

nitrah55 · #9 Post by **nitrah55** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:47 pm

TheCalvinator24 wrote:
nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3

Obama: 322
McCain: 216

And this is as good a time as any to announce that I'm planning to again run the quadrennial Board Election Prediction Poll wherein participants get points for picking which states go for which candidates, and the winner gets a valuable prize, courtesy of me.

I will be setting this up in mid-October.
Aw come on! Couldn't you have acknowledged the reigning champ?

It's been 4 years, give me a break. It's not like I keep notebooks like other people around here.

The rules are going to be tougher this year.

The prize will be, well, about the same.

TheCalvinator24 · #10 Post by **TheCalvinator24** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:00 pm

nitrah55 wrote:
TheCalvinator24 wrote:
nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3

Obama: 322
McCain: 216

And this is as good a time as any to announce that I'm planning to again run the quadrennial Board Election Prediction Poll wherein participants get points for picking which states go for which candidates, and the winner gets a valuable prize, courtesy of me.

I will be setting this up in mid-October.
Aw come on! Couldn't you have acknowledged the reigning champ?

It's been 4 years, give me a break. It's not like I keep notebooks like other people around here.

The rules are going to be tougher this year.

The prize will be, well, about the same.

I just wanted to take the chance to brag that I got 50/51 correct last time.

ShamelessWeasel · #11 Post by **ShamelessWeasel** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:24 pm

Actual
Obama 50
McCain 48
Other 2

Electoral
Obama 286
McCain 252

Estonut · #12 Post by **Estonut** » Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:20 pm

bazodee wrote:POPULAR VOTE:

Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3

Were the instructions confusing?

NellyLunatic1980 · #13 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:24 am

Estonut wrote:
bazodee wrote:POPULAR VOTE:

Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3
Were the instructions confusing?

<GWB> It's fuzzy math! </GWB>

peacock2121 · #14 Post by **peacock2121** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:33 am

Estonut wrote:
bazodee wrote:POPULAR VOTE:

Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3
Were the instructions confusing?

Nitrah is sensitive about math stuff - leave him and his cute little bow tie alone.

#15 Post by **eyégor** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:49 am

Bazodee -

note that I changed my entry-if allowed

both are still available

nitrah55 · #16 Post by **nitrah55** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:58 am

Estonut wrote:
bazodee wrote:POPULAR VOTE:

Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3
Were the instructions confusing?

I was counting everyone in Cook County, Illinois.

Let's try:

Obama 51
McCain 46
Other 3

peacock2121 · #17 Post by **peacock2121** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:30 am

nitrah55 wrote:
Estonut wrote:
bazodee wrote:POPULAR VOTE:

Use whole number percentages only and they must add up to 100

nitrah55 wrote:I'm in:

Obama: 52
McCain: 48
Other: 3
Were the instructions confusing?
I was counting everyone in Cook County, Illinois.

Let's try:

Obama 51
McCain 46
Other 3

so there!

wbtravis007 · #18 Post by **wbtravis007** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:37 pm

bazodee wrote:Having won the Bored Vice-Presidential candidates pick 'em poll, I didn't realize it was my obligation to conduct the Election Poll.

Dang, bazodee! You picked Palin? Man, that's impressive. Let me know if you ever want to come down and head up our Prediction Services department. The pay's okay, and the benefits are great.

The boys in Prediction Services are saying:

Obama =52%
McCain = 46%
Other = 2%

Obama = 376 electoral votes
McCain = 162 electoral votes

(Just changed my electoral totals a few minutes after posting. I had to overrule the boys on a couple of states.)

(Just changed again, to eliminate the fractions after seeing bazodee's post.)

bazodee · #19 Post by **bazodee** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:01 pm

I will record yall's votes on October 1 and then again on November 1.
A few of you have not followed the suggested format, so I will round percentages, combine all the "Other" candidates' percentages to standardize your entries.

Originally I was going to suggest a cutoff date after the first debate, but now the date of that debate seems to be in flux.

The purpose is to recognize (reward) those who commit to a prediction early, while also realizing that people will want to change their votes. Hence, I will take snapshots of the predictions at two points in time.

I dint mean to preclude any other historic Bored poll from being introduced; I gather there will be a state-by-state electoral calculator poll as well.

bazodee · #20 Post by **bazodee** » Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:15 pm

Thanks to all that participated in this early Presidential poll.
The first task was to predict popular vote percentages for Obama-McCain-Other, using whole numbers only.

The tally stands at 53-46-01.

I won... I know it looks bad, but I had it exactly right. I promise not to be insufferable any more.

The second task was to predict the Electoral College tally.
If McCain wins both Missouri and North Carolina then the actual tally would be 349-189. In that case, we have a tie as nitrah55 predicted Obama with 322 and wbtravis007 predicted Obama with 376. 349 is equidistant and no Price Is Right rules were invoked.
If Obama wins either Missouri or North Carolina, then wbtravis007 is the clear winner.

WWTBAM Bored

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