Current Models

Message

minimetoo26 · #26 Post by **minimetoo26** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 8:45 am

themanintheseersuckersuit wrote:Altruism fails in the presence of Hurricane tracking.

(Oh Please Lord, let it go somewhere else)

I think those darn Georgians are particularly good at this.

They've only got like an inch of coastline on my maps! I guess they don't collect enough in taxes on oceanfront property to pay for emergency cleanup services, so it's a wash...

#27 Post by **littlebeast13** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 8:47 am

andrewjackson wrote:
littlebeast13 wrote:
minimetoo26 wrote: Ha! You can't steer it to me with a temper tantrum!!!

I know you want my power our and my m-i-l blocking the computer in your absence! But I have Kay to help me with my dirty work now!!!!

When I plan baseball trips to Midwestern cities, I should NOT be taking hurricanes into account!

Kay will get a good laugh at this since she has dubbed me to be a baseball weather jinx....

lb13
What Midwestern cities are you visiting that would be impacted by hurricanes?

I am planning on being in KC for the games next Monday and Tuesday....

That projection may as well have it right over the entire state of Missouri next Monday.....

lb13

andrewjackson · #28 Post by **andrewjackson** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 9:19 am

littlebeast13 wrote:
andrewjackson wrote:
littlebeast13 wrote:
When I plan baseball trips to Midwestern cities, I should NOT be taking hurricanes into account!

Kay will get a good laugh at this since she has dubbed me to be a baseball weather jinx....

lb13
What Midwestern cities are you visiting that would be impacted by hurricanes?
I am planning on being in KC for the games next Monday and Tuesday....

That projection may as well have it right over the entire state of Missouri next Monday.....

lb13

My first thought is that there won't be any hurricane in Missouri but I guess the rain might cause problems for baseball.

#29 Post by **littlebeast13** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 9:22 am

andrewjackson wrote:
littlebeast13 wrote:
andrewjackson wrote: What Midwestern cities are you visiting that would be impacted by hurricanes?
I am planning on being in KC for the games next Monday and Tuesday....

That projection may as well have it right over the entire state of Missouri next Monday.....

lb13
My first thought is that there won't be any hurricane in Missouri but I guess the rain might cause problems for baseball.

Gustav's remnants postponed the game there last Wednesday.

If Ike's remains are anything like's Gustav's, there will be no ball played whatever day it moves through....

lb13

andrewjackson · #30 Post by **andrewjackson** » Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:32 pm

The computer models on Ike have been all over the place on the Texas coast today but the forecast is pretty much sticking with landfall near Corpus Christi on Saturday morning.

Wouldn't take much of a nudge to get it up here to Houston so we'll be watching. It looks like San Antonio might get a lot of rain out of this. That's probably a good thing unless they get floods.

andrewjackson · #31 Post by **andrewjackson** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:25 am

Three days out now and Ike is projected to hit somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston. Most of the models are down closer to C.C. but one of them is persistent in hitting close to Houston.

They have just announced a voluntary evacuation of the west end of Galveston Island. That's the lightly populated part of the island without a seawall but probably closest to the storm. It will be interesting to see what the reaction is to that.

Beebs52 · #32 Post by **Beebs52** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 12:06 pm

andrewjackson wrote:Three days out now and Ike is projected to hit somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston. Most of the models are down closer to C.C. but one of them is persistent in hitting close to Houston.

They have just announced a voluntary evacuation of the west end of Galveston Island. That's the lightly populated part of the island without a seawall but probably closest to the storm. It will be interesting to see what the reaction is to that.

Have you looked at the model verification graphic on the WU? Interestingly it's been, sort of, the UKMET and GFDL models that have been consistently tracking fairly well. I think it's the UKMET that is farthest north now, right? Plus, it's all going to curve around north inland, too.
Should we fly out to Seattle tomorrow and risk probs coming back on Sunday?

My gut reaction is no.

andrewjackson · #33 Post by **andrewjackson** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:19 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
andrewjackson wrote:Three days out now and Ike is projected to hit somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston. Most of the models are down closer to C.C. but one of them is persistent in hitting close to Houston.

They have just announced a voluntary evacuation of the west end of Galveston Island. That's the lightly populated part of the island without a seawall but probably closest to the storm. It will be interesting to see what the reaction is to that.
Have you looked at the model verification graphic on the WU? Interestingly it's been, sort of, the UKMET and GFDL models that have been consistently tracking fairly well. I think it's the UKMET that is farthest north now, right? Plus, it's all going to curve around north inland, too.
Should we fly out to Seattle tomorrow and risk probs coming back on Sunday?

My gut reaction is no.

GFDL is the one headed right for Galveston right now. UKMET was the one headed for us this morning but its down at Corpus now.

I think you will be fine. By Sunday Ike will be gone. If there a Houston to come back to, you'll be able to do that. If we're all gone, why would you want to come back?

BackInTex · #34 Post by **BackInTex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:51 pm

Latest model has Ike coming within 30 miles of my house with 90-100 mph winds here.

Guess I need to get out the wood from Rita.

Bixby17 · #35 Post by **Bixby17** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:46 am

Hi friends. Sorry I've been scarce. Lots of kids stuff going on and writing.

This is not looking good for Houston if landfall goes to Freeport as expected:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... st_47.html

We are going to be going to my in-laws place down the street. They are not there.

Their place isn't ideal, but it is a whole lot better than a house with a lot of glass surrounded by trees and next to a creek.

At least some of the noise has backed off of the Cat 4 and Cat 5 predictions of last night, but a Cat 3 in Freeport would still be bad. Also the storm is huge relative to some hurricanes.

The latest reports are sort of weird. That they expect given the measurements for the hurricane to have stronger winds but haven't explained why that is.

Hopefully our new roof is just fine. And no trees decide that it is time to come down.

I think the mayor of Galveston is an idiot for telling most residents to shelter in place. Now it is too late to evacuate a lot of people. People freaked last night when it was said that it was going to be cat 4-5, and I understand the roads are packed.

MarleysGh0st · #36 Post by **MarleysGh0st** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 6:42 am

Stay safe, all y'all down in Texas!

andrewjackson · #37 Post by **andrewjackson** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:47 am

There is now a mandatory evacuation for evacuation zones A and B of Harris County. Those are the areas along the coast just east of Houston and on Galveston Bay. Zone C is the east side of Houston but it is not evacuating yet. My place is just outside Zone C close to downtown so I'll be sheltering in place.

Here is the map if you want a better perspective. Zone A is yellow, Zone B is green, and Zone C is orange. They came up with this plan after Rita to try to stage the evacuation so that people on the coast could get out first.

http://www.hcoem.org/HCMap.aspx?P=Evacuation

I should be fine. I hope everyone else is OK as well.

Rexer25 · #38 Post by **Rexer25** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:51 pm

Has anyone checked the 2 PM runs of the models yet? Most of 'em are moving farther east for landfall...

Beebs52 · #39 Post by **Beebs52** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:52 pm

Rexer25 wrote:Has anyone checked the 2 PM runs of the models yet? Most of 'em are moving farther east for landfall...

Not really. Freeport is still pretty much the landfall target area, then a curve up 45.

TheCalvinator24 · #40 Post by **TheCalvinator24** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:57 pm

The 4pm projection shows it making landfall right on top of Texas City/Lamarque.

At least, that's what it looks like to me.

themanintheseersuckersuit · #41 Post by **themanintheseersuckersuit** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:00 pm

That's one scary storm. Good luck everyone.

TheConfessor · #42 Post by **TheConfessor** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:16 pm

They panicked yesterday and postponed Saturday's UT football game. The latest predictions make it look like we aren't even going to notice much of a change in the weather. We need a few inches of rain here. I hope we don't get much more than that.

Our wise governor has been on TV warning about a worst case scenario of 1.5 million deaths in Texas (if people don't heed his advice to evacuate). That would certainly make some headlines, if true. I've told him a million times not to exaggerate.

Good luck to everyone in Ike's path.

T_Bone0806 · #43 Post by **T_Bone0806** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:29 pm

I will be thinking only good thoughts for my pals dealing with this nasty visitor Ike.

You had all damn well better stay safe, y'hear???

andrewjackson · #44 Post by **andrewjackson** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:32 pm

TheCalvinator24 wrote:The 4pm projection shows it making landfall right on top of Texas City/Lamarque.

At least, that's what it looks like to me.

The computer models are still sliding a little to the north but they are mostly still around the Bay or just south.

The official forecast still has landfall at about Freeport just south of Galveston Island. That's the worst possible landfall for the city of Houston. It puts us just north of the eye and has the maximum surge coming over Galveston, into the Bay, and then up the Ship Channel.

I'm hoping that as the computer models move north the forecast will follow.

The National Hurricane Center is also saying that Ike may stay a Cat 2 most of the day tomorrow but intensify to a Cat 3 just before landfall. That's weird but this whole storm has been weird.

kayrharris · #45 Post by **kayrharris** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:36 pm

One of you from the area needs to be in charge of letting us know you're OK.

Beebs has my phone number. Call me when it's over so I can rest. Thanks!!

BackInTex · #46 Post by **BackInTex** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:44 pm

Well, I got all boarded up. Thanks Randy for coming to help.

I only have the boards I got during the Rita panic. One window on the 2nd floor East is completely exposes as are all windows on the west.

The model seems to keep moving north and it looks like I might be on the west side of the eye, or right in it. Guess we'll find out about about 10:00 Saturday morning.

We're riding 'er out. The kids are excited and a bit nervous. But both Kim and I have been through a major Hurricane so we are old pros and keep them calm with our cool stories about Alicia. hah!

My neighbor has a large generator he bought for Rita and said we could use some of the juice to run a refigerator and our freezer. Thanks Mark!

O.K. Now time for a hot bath. I am pooped out.

I'll check in tomorrow.

BackInTex · #47 Post by **BackInTex** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:47 pm

O.K. I just looked at the cloud radar. This is one large storm!

cindy.wellman · #48 Post by **cindy.wellman** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:11 pm

I'm sending prayers for safety for all of you, your friends and families.

Thousandaire · #49 Post by **Thousandaire** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:26 pm

cindy.wellman wrote:I'm sending prayers for safety for all of you, your friends and families.

Me too! (But I'm still glad all I have to worry about is earthquakes).

cindy.wellman · #50 Post by **cindy.wellman** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:53 pm

Thousandaire wrote:
cindy.wellman wrote:I'm sending prayers for safety for all of you, your friends and families.
Me too! (But I'm still glad all I have to worry about is earthquakes).

If the Teton Dam breaks again, we'd be in trouble, but other than that, I'm finally living in a very safe place.