It could be an early night

[TheCalvinator24]

On November 4th.

If Senator Obama wins either Virginia or North Carolina, I don't see any way for Senator McCain to overcome that and find 270 Electoral votes.

If McCain loses Florida, it's also all over.

If McCain wins all three states, it will be close, with Colorado, New Mexico, & Nevada making the difference (unless after pulling in VA, FL, and NC, McCain manages to lose Ohio).

[gsabc]

Thought you were talking about Denver-New England tonight. The Patriots secondary is going to be SO lit up ...

[nitrah55]

Cal, if I didn't know you better, I would swear you were trying to psych people out prior to the Quadrennial Bored Presidential Prophesy Contest.

But you would never do anything like that.

[TheCalvinator24]

Cal, if I didn't know you better, I would swear you were trying to psych people out prior to the Quadrennial Bored Presidential Prophesy Contest.

But you would never do anything like that.

Not trying to psych anybody out.

I find it interesting that in the past, it has been argued that the Electoral College has a built in advantage for the Republican candidate, but this year, the advantage seems to be for Senator Obama.

[gotribego26]

If Senator Obama wins either Virginia or North Carolina, I don't see any way for Senator McCain to overcome that and find 270 Electoral votes.

I tend to agree with you - I was talking with neighbors this weekend - a strong McCain bunch - and said that if Obama wins NC, they can go to bed knowing that president Obama will be inaugurated on 1/20/09.

I think NC is the earliest of the in-play states to close. As you point out, even if McCain wins here it isn't over - if he loses it is.

[silverscreenselect]

On November 4th.

If Senator Obama wins either Virginia or North Carolina, I don't see any way for Senator McCain to overcome that and find 270 Electoral votes.

If McCain loses Florida, it's also all over.

If McCain wins all three states, it will be close, with Colorado, New Mexico, & Nevada making the difference (unless after pulling in VA, FL, and NC, McCain manages to lose Ohio).

I believe PA is still in play which gives McCain some makeup room even if he loses one or more of the other states. National polling numbers are moving back towards McCain (RCP has moved three points in the last week), and the state numbers will follow.

There is a strong tendency by Obama backers to attempt the same strategy here they used against Hillary, namely keep saying it's over in an attempt to discourage the opposition. There was some justification in the primaries, since Obama had won delegates in the earlier states. Here, he hasn't won one single electoral vote yet.

The networks are very leery about the exit polls after some of their bad experiences, so I think that unless a state appears to be going for either candidate by ten points or more, they will be reluctant to call it too early. Also, close elections make for higher ratings for TV newscasts and they will want to milk suspense as long as they can.

[ToLiveIsToFly]

I think NC is the earliest of the in-play states to close.

Unless Indiana tightens up.