It's cold

[Bob Juch]

Y'all should invest in something like this. I have something similar.


https://amzn.to/37mm6X4

[Bob Juch]

We need Israel to been their space lasers to Texas.

[BackInTex]

Not sure who started it but if you’re blaming bob many numbers just on his last post for making this political you probably didn’t see or remember some the others.

Where? Other than you and Bob? Sorry, should have included you.

Not gonna worry my pretty little head about a substantive response to this. We’re on rolling blackouts and could have an extended outage at any time. I’ve been struggling to keep my phone charged as it is.

It’s there if you want to bother to look for it.

Stay warm.

When you get your power back, please go back through this thread to find the first "political" comment (other than the insulting avatars that show up on every post from those who are the worst).

Spock's comment is probably the first that had any "us vs them" tone, but it was not political, just human nature. HIs use of "laughing" term is no different than your use of "jealousy" . Not a political comment but a sociological one.

My earlier comment with facts about the wind turbines being down and gas plants being out for maintenance did not dismiss green energy, did not put blame. Just stated the facts and that it is unfortunate that we lost generating capacity. I never, in this thread, blamed green energy.

Bob J's Socialist Snowplow meme was the first political post in this thread.
Bob #'s "Blaming wind energy is a right-wing propaganda stunt." was the second.
Your (WBT) comment "comment about how the Chinese and Russian people were laughing about something or another. " was the third.

If I've missed something, please correct me. It's a shame we can't have a non-political discussion here, ever.

[silverscreenselect]

My earlier comment with facts about the wind turbines being down and gas plants being out for maintenance did not dismiss green energy, did not put blame. Just stated the facts and that it is unfortunate that we lost generating capacity. I never, in this thread, blamed green energy.

If I've missed something, please correct me. It's a shame we can't have a non-political discussion here, ever.

Well, here's some nonpolitical information that puts a different spin on what's happening.

Failures across Texas’ natural gas operations and supply chains due to extreme temperatures are the most significant cause of the power crisis that has left millions of Texans without heat and electricity during the winter storm sweeping the U.S. From frozen natural gas wells to frozen wind turbines, all sources of power generation have faced difficulties during the winter storm. But Texans largely rely on natural gas for power and heat generation, especially during peak usage, experts said.

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said the primary cause of the outages Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production. By some estimates, nearly half of the state’s natural gas production has screeched to a halt due to the extremely low temperatures, while freezing components at natural gas-fired power plants have forced some operators to shut down.

“Texas is a gas state,” said Michael Webber, an energy resources professor at the University of Texas at Austin. While he said all of Texas’ energy sources share blame for the power crisis — at least one nuclear power plant has partially shut down, most notably — the natural gas industry is producing significantly less power than normal. "Gas is failing in the most spectacular fashion right now,” Webber said.

More than half of ERCOT’s winter generating capacity, largely powered by natural gas, was offline due to the storm, an estimated 45 gigawatts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director at ERCOT.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16 ... wer-storm/

[BackInTex]

23% of Texas' power generation is from wind.
As of Sunday morning 48% of the turbines in Texas are inoperable because of icing. Probably more than 48% now.
Added to that, winter is when a lot of excess generating capacity (gas turbine and coal units) is taken offline for preventative maintenance. So that generating capacity is unavailable in the short term.

I just reposted an interesting post from a friend of mine on FB. I hadn't realized that Texas had basically divorced themselves from the national power grid. And in addition to the frozen turbines, solar panels don't work well when iced over, and gas lines are freezing all over the place. I hope it warms up soon there for all y'all.

Texas's state energy folks say that wind turbines have actually exceeded expectations, and that iced-over turbines are the least significant reason for the problem. Low gas pressure seems to be the biggest contributor, followed by iced over controls at gas and coal plants. Blaming wind energy is a right-wing propaganda stunt.

That's actually obvious once you think about it and do a little research. Iowa uses a lot of wind energy. So does Denmark. Neither of those locations are known for warm, toasty winters, but they seem to be doing just fine. --Bob

Attempting to be non-political.

Bob, can you provide any supporting facts to your "Texas's state energy folks say that wind turbines have actually exceeded expectations, and that iced-over turbines are the least significant reason for the problem. " comment? Perhaps a link?

Facts I have are:
Total generating capacity in Texas is around 77.2 Gw.

23.3% of Texas' generating capacity comes from wind. 48% of that is/was offline.
5.1% of Texas' generating capacity comes from nuclear. About 50% of it was offline Monday.

47.4% of Texas' generating capacity comes from gas.

Monday at the worst, it was reported that over 30 Gw of generation was offline.
Doing the math with the above gives:

Wind offline: 8.6
Nuclear offline: 2.0

That is 35% of the offline capacity from 28% of the generating capacity.
If all of the remaining 65% offline capacity were from gas that would mean 48% of gas was offline (this would assume 100% of coal was online).

While the significance of the loss of gas generation is more than solar and nuclear, the performance would be about the same. One difference would be the planned downtime for gas where there was no planned downtime for wind or solar. I don't think three weeks ago "State energy folks" would have said "we expect 48% of our wind turbines to be down in 21 days".

[BackInTex]

Well, here's some nonpolitical information that puts a different spin on what's happening.

Failures across Texas’ natural gas operations and supply chains due to extreme temperatures are the most significant cause of the power crisis that has left millions of Texans without heat and electricity during the winter storm sweeping the U.S. From frozen natural gas wells to frozen wind turbines, all sources of power generation have faced difficulties during the winter storm. But Texans largely rely on natural gas for power and heat generation, especially during peak usage, experts said.

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said the primary cause of the outages Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production. By some estimates, nearly half of the state’s natural gas production has screeched to a halt due to the extremely low temperatures, while freezing components at natural gas-fired power plants have forced some operators to shut down.

“Texas is a gas state,” said Michael Webber, an energy resources professor at the University of Texas at Austin. While he said all of Texas’ energy sources share blame for the power crisis — at least one nuclear power plant has partially shut down, most notably — the natural gas industry is producing significantly less power than normal. "Gas is failing in the most spectacular fashion right now,” Webber said.

More than half of ERCOT’s winter generating capacity, largely powered by natural gas, was offline due to the storm, an estimated 45 gigawatts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director at ERCOT.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16 ... wer-storm/

Thanks for the link SSS. I've no argument about what you're posting. No one prior to Bob#s "right wing propaganda stunt" comment pitted green vs fossil energy in this thread.

[silverscreenselect]

I will say that any time that there is a major natural disaster, officials in charge of planning for it always seem to underestimate the potential severity beforehand. That's true regardless of who is in charge.

[BackInTex]

I will say that any time that there is a major natural disaster, officials in charge of planning for it always seem to underestimate the potential severity beforehand. That's true regardless of who is in charge.

We mostly only notice when they underestimate. When they don't, it usually is not considered a disaster. Human nature.

[Bob Juch]

Who's actually to blame for the Texas power disaster?

(CNN)With millions of Texans still without power in the wake of a winter storm and frigid temperatures, everyone is looking for someone to blame.

Many Democrats are blaming Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for failing to prepare for the storm adequately. Many conservatives blame the environmental movement -- insisting that frozen wind turbines show the limits of alternative energy sources. (This is a gross exaggeration.)

But the primary fall guy is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), an independent organization that operates Texas' power grid.

"This was a total failure by ERCOT," said Abbott on Tuesday. "These are the experts. These are engineers in the power industry. These aren't bureaucrats or whatever the case may be. These are specialists, and the government has to rely upon these specialists to be able to deliver in these types of situations."

The story, as you might guess, is actually slightly more complicated than that. It's rooted in Texans' views of their state as a quasi-independent country -- and a desire to have as little federal interference in their lives as possible. Yes, there are politics at the root of this.

"Texas' secessionist inclinations have at least one modern outlet: the electric grid," wrote the Texas Tribune back in 2011.
To understand what is happening right now in Texas -- and who's to blame -- you have to go back to 1935 when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signed the Federal Power Act, which governed electricity sharing and sales between the states. Basically, it allowed the federal government to regulate states who brought power in from outside their state lines.

Texas, never a fan of federal intrusion, set up its own power grid system -- split between northern and southern Texas -- to avoid any federal involvement. That eventually led to the formation of ERCOT in 1970 and this strange fact: There are three power grids in the United States -- the eastern power grid, the western power grid, and, well, Texas.

Yes, you read that right. Texas has its own power grid. Because it is Texas.

And while being independent of the yoke of federal regulation has always been a point of pride for Texas, the limits of that strategy are being realized now. See, because ERCOT controls Texas -- or at least 90% of the state --, they can't simply borrow power from either the eastern or western power grids. That's never been a problem before because Texas has always generated more power than its citizens need. But the reality is that Texas is an electricity island, which isn't a problem until the lights go out, and you don't have enough power in the state to turn them back on.

Now, there's no question that ERCOT bears some blame here, too. When your only job is to manage a power grid, and that power grid fails miserably, that's a big problem. And as the Houston Chronicle noted on Tuesday, the chair of ERCOT lives in Michigan, and the vice-chair lives in California -- so they are not exactly feeling the brunt of their bad strategy.

While ERCOT is a nonprofit, it is overseen by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Texas state legislature. The head of the PUC is DeAnn T. Walker, who was appointed to that role by Abbott in 2017. Prior to that post, she was a senior adviser to Abbott on regulatory issues.

The state legislature is already agitating about addressing the ERCOT situation, with Abbott calling it an emergency issue for the 2021 legislative session -- meaning that a bill can be passed within the first 60 days of the legislative session, which began last month. Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan is calling for committee hearings to investigate ERCOT by the end of the month.
Here's the reality: In a situation as catastrophic as the one Texas finds itself in right now, there's plenty of blame to go around. But the roots of Texas' current electricity crisis can be traced all the way back to the cries of "Remember the Alamo" -- and the double-edged sword of the state's fiercely protected independence.

[tlynn78]

Brilliant! Must do tomorrow

Well, it was -20 here at the time, so your results may vary...

Minus 5 would work, no?

Prolly, just not as quick. I put some food coloring in ours, just for fun.

[tlynn78]

Well, it was -20 here at the time, so your results may vary...

Minus 5 would work, no?

Prolly, just not as quick. I put some food coloring in ours, just for fun.

Red of course.

[Spock]

Where? Other than you and Bob? Sorry, should have included you.

Not gonna worry my pretty little head about a substantive response to this. We’re on rolling blackouts and could have an extended outage at any time. I’ve been struggling to keep my phone charged as it is.

It’s there if you want to bother to look for it.

Stay warm.

When you get your power back, please go back through this thread to find the first "political" comment (other than the insulting avatars that show up on every post from those who are the worst).

Spock's comment is probably the first that had any "us vs them" tone, but it was not political, just human nature. HIs use of "laughing" term is no different than your use of "jealousy" . Not a political comment but a sociological one.

Thank You. It was more of a "Grasshopper/Ant" fable analogy. Is there anybody that the "Grasshoppers" would ridicule more than an "Ant" who might say something like-"You know, when we most need the electric grid, it might not be there for us."?

My lived experience has taught me that the grid won't be there when we need it most-hence we own generators and so forth. With livestock, it is a life or death situation that we have electricity.

[Appa23]

My wife, our youngest daughter, and I just got back from Disney World yesterday, where we had a week of approximately high 70s and low 80s. Quite the change, seeing that it was -21, with -40 wind chill overnight. (Did wake up to see Good Morning America finally do a weather story not about East coast but my hometown. Guy did the demo of boiling water turning to steam in midair, plus showed the steam coming off of the Missouri River, which then iced up bridges and roads near the river

In the span of less than 12 hours, we had three different flight cancellations in trying to return home, and my wife had to fly home entirely separately from us, and we had to fly into Kansas City and have our son drive down to pick us up. (Wife was supposed to fly through Houston yesterday, while daughter and I flew through ChIcago. Fortunately, SWA ticketing agent got her onto a Dallas flight at the last minute, or she may still be in Houston.) Fortunately, no real issue with our car starting up when we went back to Omaha’s airport today, despite multiple days well below freezing.

No rolling power outages where I live, though other parts of the city did, as apparently Nebraska’s public power districts are part of a Southwest power collective, so customers in Nebraska had to lessen power demands to help people in more southern states not be as impacted.

I would have stayed in Orlando!

Well, I have a daughter in school and a wife that teaches school, plus I did not bring my work computer on vacation.

(Fortunately, as it turns out, no missed school because Monday was a holiday, and Tuesday was a "cold day", so remote learning. Even my older daughter's college gave the students Monday and Tuesday off, which provided some necessary mental health days amidst the school's crackdown on all social interaction due to COVID.)

[SpacemanSpiff]

One (now ex) Texas mayor has his own take on the grasshopper and the ant. Or maybe he didn't take governmental economics in college to learn what "public goods" mean.

https://ktxs.com/news/local/colorado-ci ... ebook-post

Colorado City's mayor, Tim Boyd, when asked by his constituency about the electricity issue (and, in many cases, water, since that was affected as well), came up with a swell Facebook post yesterday, since deleted:

No one owes you or your family anything; nor is it the local governments responsibility to support you during trying times like this! Sink or swim, it’s your choice! The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING! I’m sick and tired of people looking for a damn hand out! If you don’t have electricity you step up and come up with a game plan to keep your family warm and safe. If you have no water you deal with out and think outside of the box to survive and supply water to your family. If you were sitting at home in the cold because you have no power and are sitting there waiting for someone to come rescue you because your lazy is direct result of your raising! Only the strong will survive and the week will perish. Folks, God Has given us the tools to support ourselves in times like this. This is sadly a product of a socialist government where they feed people to believe that the FEW work and others will become dependent for handouts. Am I sorry that you have been dealing without electricity and water; yes! But I’ll be damned if I’m going to provide for anyone that is capable of doing it themselves! We have lost sight of those in need and those that take advantage of the system and mesh them into one group!! Bottom line, quit crying and looking for a handout! Get off your ass and take care of your own family!

Bottom line - DON’T BE A PART OF A PROBLEM, BE A PART OF THE SOLUTION!

He later came up with a bit of a walkback message, but has since resigned.

[Bob78164]

I just reposted an interesting post from a friend of mine on FB. I hadn't realized that Texas had basically divorced themselves from the national power grid. And in addition to the frozen turbines, solar panels don't work well when iced over, and gas lines are freezing all over the place. I hope it warms up soon there for all y'all.

Texas's state energy folks say that wind turbines have actually exceeded expectations, and that iced-over turbines are the least significant reason for the problem. Low gas pressure seems to be the biggest contributor, followed by iced over controls at gas and coal plants. Blaming wind energy is a right-wing propaganda stunt.

That's actually obvious once you think about it and do a little research. Iowa uses a lot of wind energy. So does Denmark. Neither of those locations are known for warm, toasty winters, but they seem to be doing just fine. --Bob

Attempting to be non-political.

Bob, can you provide any supporting facts to your "Texas's state energy folks say that wind turbines have actually exceeded expectations, and that iced-over turbines are the least significant reason for the problem. " comment? Perhaps a link?

Facts I have are:
Total generating capacity in Texas is around 77.2 Gw.

23.3% of Texas' generating capacity comes from wind. 48% of that is/was offline.
5.1% of Texas' generating capacity comes from nuclear. About 50% of it was offline Monday.

47.4% of Texas' generating capacity comes from gas.

Monday at the worst, it was reported that over 30 Gw of generation was offline.
Doing the math with the above gives:

Wind offline: 8.6
Nuclear offline: 2.0

That is 35% of the offline capacity from 28% of the generating capacity.
If all of the remaining 65% offline capacity were from gas that would mean 48% of gas was offline (this would assume 100% of coal was online).

While the significance of the loss of gas generation is more than solar and nuclear, the performance would be about the same. One difference would be the planned downtime for gas where there was no planned downtime for wind or solar. I don't think three weeks ago "State energy folks" would have said "we expect 48% of our wind turbines to be down in 21 days".

A fair request. There's also this: "To a certain extent, the wind turbines exceeded expectations. The grid operators predict a day in advance how much power the turbines will produce. At many hours of the day on Feb. 15 and Feb.16, wind delivered more power than the engineers at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas had expected." --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

Much seems to be made about the Texas wind turbines.

Perhaps a compare and contrast with other places that use wind turbines would be in order?

Like Canada. Or Sweden. Or even the U.S. Midwest. Places where cold is expected.

It seems that the Texas windmills were built with the same concept that Florida houses were built a few decades ago -- with heat pumps that had no strip heaters as backup (to save costs) because it rarely got cold enough to need them (surprising an unsuspecting homeowner when there was the occasional cold snap).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpe ... 4c20971f59

[BackInTex]

Much seems to be made about the Texas wind turbines.

Perhaps a compare and contrast with other places that use wind turbines would be in order?

Like Canada. Or Sweden. Or even the U.S. Midwest. Places where cold is expected.

It seems that the Texas windmills were built with the same concept that Florida houses were built a few decades ago -- with heat pumps that had no strip heaters as backup (to save costs) because it rarely got cold enough to need them (surprising an unsuspecting homeowner when there was the occasional cold snap).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpe ... 4c20971f59

Like I keep telling people now, that's O.K. I don't want to pay for stuff I hardly ever use (once every 5 to 10 years). I don't want to pay for perfect.

[Spock]

One (now ex) Texas mayor has his own take on the grasshopper and the ant. Or maybe he didn't take governmental economics in college to learn what "public goods" mean.

https://ktxs.com/news/local/colorado-ci ... ebook-post

Colorado City's mayor, Tim Boyd, when asked by his constituency about the electricity issue (and, in many cases, water, since that was affected as well), came up with a swell Facebook post yesterday, since deleted:

No one owes you or your family anything; nor is it the local governments responsibility to support you during trying times like this! Sink or swim, it’s your choice! The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING! I’m sick and tired of people looking for a damn hand out! If you don’t have electricity you step up and come up with a game plan to keep your family warm and safe. If you have no water you deal with out and think outside of the box to survive and supply water to your family. If you were sitting at home in the cold because you have no power and are sitting there waiting for someone to come rescue you because your lazy is direct result of your raising! Only the strong will survive and the week will perish. Folks, God Has given us the tools to support ourselves in times like this. This is sadly a product of a socialist government where they feed people to believe that the FEW work and others will become dependent for handouts. Am I sorry that you have been dealing without electricity and water; yes! But I’ll be damned if I’m going to provide for anyone that is capable of doing it themselves! We have lost sight of those in need and those that take advantage of the system and mesh them into one group!! Bottom line, quit crying and looking for a handout! Get off your ass and take care of your own family!

Bottom line - DON’T BE A PART OF A PROBLEM, BE A PART OF THE SOLUTION!

He later came up with a bit of a walkback message, but has since resigned.

You know, it might be a public good, but when the next massive ice storm hits here and breaks thousands of miles of electric poles, followed by an extended cold snap of 40 below-me talking about how electricity is a "Public Good" and being pissed at everybody that my current is out for a week or ten days won't do me any good.

However, having my own generator will do me some good.

[kroxquo]

I don't know who is to blame, but my daughter in Round Rock (just outside Austin) said this situation is devastating. She lives 3 doors down from a fire station so her neighborhood has not lost power, but she did have to go and rescue some friends of hers who were getting hypothermia inside their own house.

[Spock]

At this point, everybody seems to be focused on the generation side of things. As that gets taken care of, I wonder how many transmission (ie last mile) problems will show up. Broken transmission lines and so forth.

I don't know how it works for Investor owned utilities, but all the rural electric cooperatives in the country use the same equipment and supplies so that crews from a Co-op in Maine can go help with hurricane damage in Mississippi (for example) and fit right in with helping out.

I imagine there are calls out to the rural co-ops across the country to start putting crews together to help out in Texas.

With all the broken water lines and so forth, it might be a slower than expected process to get power on-simply in the interests of safety.

[Beebs52]

Greg's house has collapsed ceilings, floors flooded. I'd post pics but I don't have photobucket or anything

[BackInTex]

At this point, everybody seems to be focused on the generation side of things. As that gets taken care of, I wonder how many transmission (ie last mile) problems will show up. Broken transmission lines and so forth.

I don't know how it works for Investor owned utilities, but all the rural electric cooperatives in the country use the same equipment and supplies so that crews from a Co-op in Maine can go help with hurricane damage in Mississippi (for example) and fit right in with helping out.

I imagine there are calls out to the rural co-ops across the country to start putting crews together to help out in Texas.

With all the broken water lines and so forth, it might be a slower than expected process to get power on-simply in the interests of safety.

My company

Builds wind farms
Build transmission lines
Builds natural gas pipelines
Builds oil pipelines
My group within my company builds and maintains electric and natural gas distribution systems

I do kind of know what I talk about.

Texas is a huge cluster right now. But I hope they don’t change too much. It hurts now but we are fine.

[Beebs52]

At this point, everybody seems to be focused on the generation side of things. As that gets taken care of, I wonder how many transmission (ie last mile) problems will show up. Broken transmission lines and so forth.

I don't know how it works for Investor owned utilities, but all the rural electric cooperatives in the country use the same equipment and supplies so that crews from a Co-op in Maine can go help with hurricane damage in Mississippi (for example) and fit right in with helping out.

I imagine there are calls out to the rural co-ops across the country to start putting crews together to help out in Texas.

With all the broken water lines and so forth, it might be a slower than expected process to get power on-simply in the interests of safety.

My company

Builds wind farms
Build transmission lines
Builds natural gas pipelines
Builds oil pipelines
My group within my company builds and maintains electric and natural gas distribution systems

I do kind of know what I talk about.

Texas is a huge cluster right now. But I hope they don’t change too much. It hurts now but we are fine.

Rec

[Bob78164]

Texas is a huge cluster right now. But I hope they don’t change too much. It hurts now but we are fine.

It strikes me as somewhat problematic (by which I mean, unfair to the rest of the country) to insist on remaining isolated from the national grid in order to avoid federal regulation, while looking to the federal government to provide relief when one of the results of avoiding that regulation proves disastrous.

To be clear, I have no problem with the federal government providing disaster relief for the current situation; in fact, I think it's a moral imperative. But I think that if Texas is going to insist on avoiding federal regulation of its power grid, it's fair to discuss whether the state government should be required to repay some or all of that relief. --Bob

[Bob Juch]

At this point, everybody seems to be focused on the generation side of things. As that gets taken care of, I wonder how many transmission (ie last mile) problems will show up. Broken transmission lines and so forth.

I don't know how it works for Investor owned utilities, but all the rural electric cooperatives in the country use the same equipment and supplies so that crews from a Co-op in Maine can go help with hurricane damage in Mississippi (for example) and fit right in with helping out.

I imagine there are calls out to the rural co-ops across the country to start putting crews together to help out in Texas.

With all the broken water lines and so forth, it might be a slower than expected process to get power on-simply in the interests of safety.

My company

Builds wind farms
Build transmission lines
Builds natural gas pipelines
Builds oil pipelines
My group within my company builds and maintains electric and natural gas distribution systems

I do kind of know what I talk about.

Texas is a huge cluster right now. But I hope they don’t change too much. It hurts now but we are fine.

Two of my clients are ConEd in New York and Southern California Edison. I'm picking up NiSource next month. I'm happy that I don't have any in Texas.