So What are the metrics to open?

[Spock]

Do we have to keep hysterically overreacting to every Wuhan Flu case?

Do we shut schools down next fall if there are 3 cases?

Are we all Karen now?

[Bob78164]

Start with widespread testing, using the 3 million or so five-minute tests we could have had if the federal government had acted two months ago, or at least the 1.5 million five-minute tests we'll have at the end of the month. Once we've (a) knocked the pandemic down to size via roughly two months of social distancing (which really ought to be nationwide), and (b) used the tests to locate the disease, we'll be much better positioned to know where it's relatively safe to lift the lockdown. --Bob

[Spock]

Start with widespread testing, using the 3 million or so five-minute tests we could have had if the federal government had acted two months ago, or at least the 1.5 million five-minute tests we'll have at the end of the month. Once we've (a) knocked the pandemic down to size via roughly two months of social distancing (which really ought to be nationwide), and (b) used the tests to locate the disease, we'll be much better positioned to know where it's relatively safe to lift the lockdown. --Bob

Re-Nationwide social distancing:

That is basically what is going on-but there is no rational reason to treat low density population areas the same as densely populated Manhattan where hundreds of people might live in the same building and share elevators and air space.

Hell. I am always social distanced as a lifestyle.

[Bob78164]

Start with widespread testing, using the 3 million or so five-minute tests we could have had if the federal government had acted two months ago, or at least the 1.5 million five-minute tests we'll have at the end of the month. Once we've (a) knocked the pandemic down to size via roughly two months of social distancing (which really ought to be nationwide), and (b) used the tests to locate the disease, we'll be much better positioned to know where it's relatively safe to lift the lockdown. --Bob

Re-Nationwide social distancing:

That is basically what is going on-but there is no rational reason to treat low density population areas the same as densely populated Manhattan where hundreds of people might live in the same building and share elevators and air space.

Hell. I am always social distanced as a lifestyle.

That just means that social distancing won't have as big an impact on the lifestyle of rural folks as it does in the cities and suburbs. But no matter where you live, large meetings are a really bad idea and it's important to maintain a six-foot distance from most people. Because population density is lower in rural areas, but so is hospital capacity, particularly ICU capacity. --Bob

[silverscreenselect]

Because population density is lower in rural areas, but so is hospital capacity, particularly ICU capacity. --Bob

Bullseye, how many cases will it take to overwhelm any of our rural healthcare systems?

Reported coronavirus cases in North Dakota: 1 per 5,353 people.
Reported coronavirus cases in California: 1 per 4,545 people

Not that much of a difference.

[jarnon]

Florida's Republican governor expanded the state's stay-at-home order from the hardest-hit counties to the whole state. Pennsylvania's Democratic governor did the same. As the virus spreads in April, I expect the whole country will grind to a halt.

[a1mamacat]

Do we have to keep hysterically overreacting to every Wuhan Flu case?

Do we shut schools down next fall if there are 3 cases?

Are we all Karen now?

You are an ass!

[tlynn78]

Do we have to keep hysterically overreacting to every Wuhan Flu case?

Do we shut schools down next fall if there are 3 cases?

Are we all Karen now?

You are an ass!

[silverscreenselect]

Start with widespread testing, using the 3 million or so five-minute tests we could have had if the federal government had acted two months ago, or at least the 1.5 million five-minute tests we'll have at the end of the month. Once we've (a) knocked the pandemic down to size via roughly two months of social distancing (which really ought to be nationwide), and (b) used the tests to locate the disease, we'll be much better positioned to know where it's relatively safe to lift the lockdown. --Bob

Re-Nationwide social distancing:

That is basically what is going on-but there is no rational reason to treat low density population areas the same as densely populated Manhattan where hundreds of people might live in the same building and share elevators and air space.

Hell. I am always social distanced as a lifestyle.

Potential effects of coronavirus on rural hospitals. All it takes is one crowded church service or restaurant.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 103802002/

[silverscreenselect]

That is basically what is going on-but there is no rational reason to treat low density population areas the same as densely populated Manhattan where hundreds of people might live in the same building and share elevators and air space.

A church revival that took place in mid-March has been linked to at least 28 cases of the novel coronavirus and two deaths in a small Kentucky community. Hopkins County "has been hit really, really hard" by the event, Gov. Andy Beshear said Wednesday while addressing the revival. "When people violate the rules and the recommendations that are out there … (this is) the significant harm it can cause," said Beshear, whose family is connected to the county.

According to the Hopkins County Health Department, a local church held a revival with a preacher from Texas on March 15 and 16 in Dawson Springs, a rural town east of Paducah. People did not practice social distancing at the event, the department said, and several families soon reported feeling sick. The church posted on social media that the families had the flu and did not encourage its members to self-quarantine. Dozens of residents have since tested positive for the coronavirus, and at least 100 have been placed in quarantine. The cases have stretched from Hopkins County into Muhlenberg, Clark and Warren counties, with a nursing home, a business and an ambulance service all linked to the outbreak.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/n ... 108111002/

And keep in mind that the dozens of people who attended that revival meeting could each have infected dozens more people by now. Ironically, Gov. Andy Beshear has been one of the more aggressive about imposing restrictions on gatherings, but you can't police everybody.

[silverscreenselect]

Dozens of spring breakers from Texas boarded a plane for fun and came home with coronavirus. About 70 people in their 20s chartered a plane from Austin, Texas, to Mexico for spring break two weeks ago. They went against the advice of White House officials who asked that people avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 and nonessential air travel.Now 44 of those people have tested positive for coronavirus -- all of them University of Texas at Austin students, a university spokesman told CNN on Wednesday.

What's also alarming is that some of the passengers who went on the trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, took commercial flights home, the Austin Public Health Department said. "The virus often hides in the healthy and is given to those who are at grave risk of being hospitalized or dying," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said in a statement. "While younger people have less risk for complications, they are not immune from severe illness and death from COVID-19."

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/aust ... index.html

[Appa23]

Because population density is lower in rural areas, but so is hospital capacity, particularly ICU capacity. --Bob

Bullseye, how many cases will it take to overwhelm any of our rural healthcare systems?

Reported coronavirus cases in North Dakota: 1 per 5,353 people.
Reported coronavirus cases in California: 1 per 4,545 people

Not that much of a difference.

Huge difference in beds per capital. States in the Midwest /Northern Plains have 3x the number of beds per 1000 people as the West Coast. It is the reason that the Dakotas, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and I think Missouri are predicted to have sufficient hospital beds and ICU beds at the peak of cases here in late April. On the West Coast, hospitals have had a failure in preparation for many years, as the number of beds has failed to keep up with population growth..

[silverscreenselect]

Huge difference in beds per capital. States in the Midwest /Northern Plains have 3x the number of beds per 1000 people as the West Coast. It is the reason that the Dakotas, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and I think Missouri are predicted to have sufficient hospital beds and ICU beds at the peak of cases here in late April. On the West Coast, hospitals have had a failure in preparation for many years, as the number of beds has failed to keep up with population growth..

The problem with this disease is that outbreaks happen in clusters. There have been several reported instances of multiple people in smaller communities contracting the disease after attending the same church service, funeral, family get-together or some similar social function. While there may be plenty of hospital beds in one end of a geographically large, sparsely populated state, that might not be much help for people who get sick on the other end of the state.

From the USA Today article I linked to earlier in this thread:

An analysis of rural communities nationwide by the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, shows 1.1 million people live in rural communities at least 20 miles from the nearest hospital. Of those residents, a quarter are age 60 or older, putting them in the highest-risk age groups for the disease. A surge of severe cases in those small towns could require stabilizing and transporting patients, one by one, dozens or hundreds of miles.

For many of these communities, the risks have worsened in recent years, as their own local hospitals have closed. In some, though, nursing homes have remained, concentrating the most vulnerable far from the best care. Those same small towns may be more skeptical of the coronavirus threat and more resistant to official calls to close businesses or halt activities to slow the threat.

[Estonut]

Huge difference in beds per capital. States in the Midwest /Northern Plains have 3x the number of beds per 1000 people as the West Coast. It is the reason that the Dakotas, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and I think Missouri are predicted to have sufficient hospital beds and ICU beds at the peak of cases here in late April. On the West Coast, hospitals have had a failure in preparation for many years, as the number of beds has failed to keep up with population growth..

The problem with this disease is that outbreaks happen in clusters. There have been several reported instances of multiple people in smaller communities contracting the disease after attending the same church service, funeral, family get-together or some similar social function. While there may be plenty of hospital beds in one end of a geographically large, sparsely populated state, that might not be much help for people who get sick on the other end of the state.

From the USA Today article I linked to earlier in this thread:

An analysis of rural communities nationwide by the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, shows 1.1 million people live in rural communities at least 20 miles from the nearest hospital. Of those residents, a quarter are age 60 or older, putting them in the highest-risk age groups for the disease. A surge of severe cases in those small towns could require stabilizing and transporting patients, one by one, dozens or hundreds of miles.

For many of these communities, the risks have worsened in recent years, as their own local hospitals have closed. In some, though, nursing homes have remained, concentrating the most vulnerable far from the best care. Those same small towns may be more skeptical of the coronavirus threat and more resistant to official calls to close businesses or halt activities to slow the threat.

20 miles is not "the other end" of most states.

[silverscreenselect]

20 miles is not "the other end" of most states.

I guess you missed the "at least" before the 20 miles. The first paragraph in the article:

When Timaree Koscik’s husband, Tom, fell off the couple's roof in Tonopah, Nevada, and shattered his heels, she knew what they had to do. “It was just like, 'Well, put him in the car and take him to Bishop.' ” The closest hospital is in Bishop, California, 115 miles away.

[Bob Juch]

20 miles is not "the other end" of most states.

I guess you missed the "at least" before the 20 miles. The first paragraph in the article:

When Timaree Koscik’s husband, Tom, fell off the couple's roof in Tonopah, Nevada, and shattered his heels, she knew what they had to do. “It was just like, 'Well, put him in the car and take him to Bishop.' ” The closest hospital is in Bishop, California, 115 miles away.

Bishop is on the other side of the Sierra Nevadas so the road to it is often closed due to snow. They'd then have to go to Las Vegas.

[Appa23]

Huge difference in beds per capital. States in the Midwest /Northern Plains have 3x the number of beds per 1000 people as the West Coast. It is the reason that the Dakotas, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and I think Missouri are predicted to have sufficient hospital beds and ICU beds at the peak of cases here in late April. On the West Coast, hospitals have had a failure in preparation for many years, as the number of beds has failed to keep up with population growth..

The problem with this disease is that outbreaks happen in clusters. There have been several reported instances of multiple people in smaller communities contracting the disease after attending the same church service, funeral, family get-together or some similar social function. While there may be plenty of hospital beds in one end of a geographically large, sparsely populated state, that might not be much help for people who get sick on the other end of the state.

From the USA Today article I linked to earlier in this thread:

An analysis of rural communities nationwide by the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, shows 1.1 million people live in rural communities at least 20 miles from the nearest hospital. Of those residents, a quarter are age 60 or older, putting them in the highest-risk age groups for the disease. A surge of severe cases in those small towns could require stabilizing and transporting patients, one by one, dozens or hundreds of miles.

For many of these communities, the risks have worsened in recent years, as their own local hospitals have closed. In some, though, nursing homes have remained, concentrating the most vulnerable far from the best care. Those same small towns may be more skeptical of the coronavirus threat and more resistant to official calls to close businesses or halt activities to slow the threat.

All of the people working for USACE on providing alternative medical facilities to communities across the nation, and hence have had daily meetings dealing with coordination of efforts with state health and EM agencies, raise your hand.

[earendel]

All of the people working for USACE on providing alternative medical facilities to communities across the nation, and hence have had daily meetings dealing with coordination of efforts with state health and EM agencies, raise your hand.

*Raises hand*.
I'm not directly involved in contracting for the facilities but I am involved in daily meetings to help coordinate efforts.

[Bob Juch]

All of the people working for USACE on providing alternative medical facilities to communities across the nation, and hence have had daily meetings dealing with coordination of efforts with state health and EM agencies, raise your hand.

*Raises hand*.
I'm not directly involved in contracting for the facilities but I am involved in daily meetings to help coordinate efforts.

I saw your big boss, LTG Semonite, on TV yesterday. He sounded impressive.