Odds Against U.S. in World Cup

[littlebeast13]

I made my statement based on this new rule that was put into place prior to the 2007 season, but was unaware that there was still a caveat to the rule that could result in a game being declared a tie (Though tie games in baseball never did show up in the standings... ties only existed as a way to make the stats from that game count). '07 was the last year I ran my baseball trivia game on the Bored, and one of the questions I asked was which two teams played the final tie game in MLB history.... it was the Astros and Reds in this game on 6/30/05...

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2005 ... IN2005.htm

lb13

What I don't understand is why so many people acted as though Bud Selig was worse than Hitler for letting the 2002 All Star Game end in a tie. It is just an exhibition, and it doesn't matter who wins (but now it does thanks to that horrible rule that the ASG determines home field in the World Series). The alternative was to let non-pitchers pitch in the ASG, and the same people who bitched about the tie would have bitched about that as well.

I don't know why people even care about the ASG anymore, I haven't since sometime in the mid 90's. Even in the "This One Counts" era, the game doesn't seem to be played any differently than before. In the 2008 game that went 14 innings, the second string guys wound up playing almost a full 9 innings, and decided the fate of the game long after the first team had hit the showers... and that's how it ends up every year.... the "first half wonders" that get chosen by the managers are playing for what has essentially been (2011 notwithstanding) a useless WS home field advantage designation. The expansion of the rosters after that 2002 "debacle" only made it worse because there's still pressure to let everyone play, and now there's more bodies to try to work into the lineup!

lb13

[silverscreenselect]

I made my statement based on this new rule that was put into place prior to the 2007 season, but was unaware that there was still a caveat to the rule that could result in a game being declared a tie (Though tie games in baseball never did show up in the standings... ties only existed as a way to make the stats from that game count). '07 was the last year I ran my baseball trivia game on the Bored, and one of the questions I asked was which two teams played the final tie game in MLB history.... it was the Astros and Reds in this game on 6/30/05...

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2005 ... IN2005.htm

lb13

What I don't understand is why so many people acted as though Bud Selig was worse than Hitler for letting the 2002 All Star Game end in a tie. It is just an exhibition, and it doesn't matter who wins (but now it does thanks to that horrible rule that the ASG determines home field in the World Series). The alternative was to let non-pitchers pitch in the ASG, and the same people who bitched about the tie would have bitched about that as well.

I think that fans, both inside and outside the stadium, should have been thrilled that they got to see the best players in the game play meaningless exhibition baseball for 11 innings instead of only 9. Would these people complain if they went to a two-hour concert and the band came back out for a 30-minute encore?

[littlebeast13]

I made my statement based on this new rule that was put into place prior to the 2007 season, but was unaware that there was still a caveat to the rule that could result in a game being declared a tie (Though tie games in baseball never did show up in the standings... ties only existed as a way to make the stats from that game count). '07 was the last year I ran my baseball trivia game on the Bored, and one of the questions I asked was which two teams played the final tie game in MLB history.... it was the Astros and Reds in this game on 6/30/05...

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2005 ... IN2005.htm

lb13

What I don't understand is why so many people acted as though Bud Selig was worse than Hitler for letting the 2002 All Star Game end in a tie. It is just an exhibition, and it doesn't matter who wins (but now it does thanks to that horrible rule that the ASG determines home field in the World Series). The alternative was to let non-pitchers pitch in the ASG, and the same people who bitched about the tie would have bitched about that as well.

I think that fans, both inside and outside the stadium, should have been thrilled that they got to see the best players in the game play meaningless exhibition baseball for 11 innings instead of only 9. Would these people complain if they went to a two-hour concert and the band came back out for a 30-minute encore?

Yeah, if the concert ended up in a tie...

lb13

[silverscreenselect]

The way things are going, all of us except Appa may have to eat a little crow.

Through Sunday's matches, there were no ties in the eleven matches played. That's the longest opening stretch without ties since 1934 (in 2010, there had been three ties by this point). The Switzerland-Ecuador game seemed headed for a 1-1 tie until the Swiss scored in the 93rd minute, the latest game-deciding goal in World Cup history.

[Bob78164]

The way things are going, all of us except Appa may have to eat a little crow.

Through Sunday's matches, there were no ties in the eleven matches played. That's the longest opening stretch without ties since 1934 (in 2010, there had been three ties by this point). The Switzerland-Ecuador game seemed headed for a 1-1 tie until the Swiss scored in the 93rd minute, the latest game-deciding goal in World Cup history.

I'd noticed that there haven't yet been any ties. --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

Just watched the first half of the Portugal-Germany game (that one won't end up tied, either).

I'm not sure if Germany is that good (I know they're good but are they that good), or if Portugal is totally out of sync.

Then again, it doesn't help when you have a hothead player that headbutts a sitting player and gets ejected -- he won't be playing against the US.

And, based upon what I'm seeing, we'd better hope that we're set to advance before our third game (or that Germany had won their first two games and decided they don't have to try to send out their top players against us).

[EDIT: As much as I hate to see a player get hurt, one of the Portuguese defenders just left with a groin pull, so he might be doubtful for the US match. Since the ejected player is also a defender, that means that there will likely be two inexperienced defenders for Portugal next game]

[silverscreenselect]

[EDIT: As much as I hate to see a player get hurt, one of the Portuguese defenders just left with a groin pull, so he might be doubtful for the US match. Since the ejected player is also a defender, that means that there will likely be two inexperienced defenders for Portugal next game]

The U.S. could use any help it can get. It always seems that each World Cup some highly regarded team lays an egg in its first round game and then just goes through the motions the rest of the way. Hopefully, that will be the case with Portugal.

[silverscreenselect]

The way things are going, all of us except Appa may have to eat a little crow.

Through Sunday's matches, there were no ties in the eleven matches played.

Iran 0
Nigeria 0

We're all safe from Appa's gloating from now until the end of the Bored.

This match is of note because Nigeria is the last team the U.S. played before heading to Brazil. The U.S. beat Nigeria 2-1 in a match that wasn't that close (Nigeria scored late against U.S. subs).

[smilergrogan]

The way things are going, all of us except Appa may have to eat a little crow.

Through Sunday's matches, there were no ties in the eleven matches played.

Iran 0
Nigeria 0

We're all safe from Appa's gloating from now until the end of the Bored.

This match is of note because Nigeria is the last team the U.S. played before heading to Brazil. The U.S. beat Nigeria 2-1 in a match that wasn't that close (Nigeria scored late against U.S. subs).

But Appa wasn't saying there would be no ties - he was insisting there would be ties and claiming incorrectly that Nate Silver had predicted there would be none. Appa specifically predicted that England-Italy would be a tie.

[silverscreenselect]

The way things are going, all of us except Appa may have to eat a little crow.

Through Sunday's matches, there were no ties in the eleven matches played.

Iran 0
Nigeria 0

We're all safe from Appa's gloating from now until the end of the Bored.

This match is of note because Nigeria is the last team the U.S. played before heading to Brazil. The U.S. beat Nigeria 2-1 in a match that wasn't that close (Nigeria scored late against U.S. subs).

But Appa wasn't saying there would be no ties - he was insisting there would be ties and claiming incorrectly that Nate Silver had predicted there would be none. Appa specifically predicted that England-Italy would be a tie.

Nate Silver predicted there was a 31% chance of the Iran-Nigeria match ending in a tie (Nigeria was favored 42-28; the numbers add up to 101 due to rounding). You can follow his updated predictions based on taking already played matches into account here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

The Iran-Nigeria match was the 13th match played. Assuming a 20% chance of a tie in any match, the odds of 12 consecutive matches without a tie are just under 7%, unlikely but not extraordinary. However, the odds of no ties in 48 matches would be about .00022 or 2.2 in 10,000.

[silverscreenselect]

Per Nate Silver, the US now has a 63% chance of advancing to the final round, even though they will be underdogs in both their next two games, against Portugal and Germany. Those figures will be adjusted tomorrow when new strength ratings come out based on yesterday's results (the US odds against Portugal will improve a bit). The strength ratings are based on the scores of yesterday's matches, not on how good or bad the teams actually looked, so the shakiness of the US win will not be taken into account (but Portugal will be penalized for a four-goal loss). The ratings and odds also don't take into account the various injuries to US and Portuguese players, or the red-card suspension of Portuguese player Pepe against the US.

No change at the top. Brazil now has a 99.8% chance of advancing and can clinch a spot in the next round with a win over Mexico in today's match.

[Bob78164]

Per Nate Silver, the US now has a 63% chance of advancing to the final round, even though they will be underdogs in both their next two games, against Portugal and Germany. Those figures will be adjusted tomorrow when new strength ratings come out based on yesterday's results (the US odds against Portugal will improve a bit). The strength ratings are based on the scores of yesterday's matches, not on how good or bad the teams actually looked, so the shakiness of the US win will not be taken into account (but Portugal will be penalized for a four-goal loss). The ratings and odds also don't take into account the various injuries to US and Portuguese players, or the red-card suspension of Portuguese player Pepe against the US.

No change at the top. Brazil now has a 99.8% chance of advancing and can clinch a spot in the next round with a win over Mexico in today's match.

Part of Nate's system is a player-by-player rating, so I'm not sure it's correct that he doesn't account for red cards or injuries. --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

Just a rudimentary (Captain Obvious) rundown for the next game (which assumes that Germans also beat Ghana; if they don't, I'll be most surprised).

If we beat Portugal, we're in. Period.

If we lose, it'll be tough to advance because we'll likely get beaten by the Germans, so even a tie between POR-GHA would advance Portugal.

A tie against Portugal actually gives us a pretty good chance to advance. We'd have four points and a goal differential favoring us over Portugal of five. So, even if we lose to Germany and Portugal beats Ghana, that'd leave the US and Portugal tied on points at four; then it'd be how badly Portugal beat Ghana and how badly the Germans beat us, if they could make up those five goals.

[silverscreenselect]

Part of Nate's system is a player-by-player rating, so I'm not sure it's correct that he doesn't account for red cards or injuries. --Bob

Actually, not, as he explained this morning:

One final note: The Americans’ chances to advance should improve slightly when we rerun the numbers on Tuesday morning, as they’ll reflect the change in the Soccer Power Index, which we update overnight. It’s not that the United States’ SPI will increase so much as that Portugal’s will decline: Portugal looks much more beatable (or at least drawable) after its 4-0 defeat. SPI is not sophisticated enough to account for the red card to Portugal’s Pepe (who will miss the match against the U.S.) or the injury to the U.S.’s Jozy Altidore — nor for the fact that the Americans’ quality of play on Monday was not as impressive as the scoreline.

[elwoodblues]

After struggling in their first game Brazil played Mexico to a 0-0 draw today. Maybe Brazil is not as good as most people thought.

[Vandal]

The are quite good at flopping. This is (apparently) a good trait to have in soccer.




I'm just kidding around. No soccer angst, please!

[silverscreenselect]

Part of Nate's system is a player-by-player rating, so I'm not sure it's correct that he doesn't account for red cards or injuries. --Bob

Actually, not, as he explained this morning:

One final note: The Americans’ chances to advance should improve slightly when we rerun the numbers on Tuesday morning, as they’ll reflect the change in the Soccer Power Index, which we update overnight. It’s not that the United States’ SPI will increase so much as that Portugal’s will decline: Portugal looks much more beatable (or at least drawable) after its 4-0 defeat. SPI is not sophisticated enough to account for the red card to Portugal’s Pepe (who will miss the match against the U.S.) or the injury to the U.S.’s Jozy Altidore — nor for the fact that the Americans’ quality of play on Monday was not as impressive as the scoreline.

According to today's updated totals, the U.S. is virtually even against Portugal (35W-36L-29T), and a 68.8% chance of advancing. Again, those stats don't take injuries or suspensions into account (or the possibility that Germany might rest some of its players against the U.S. in the last game if they clinch a berth in their second match).

[SpacemanSpiff]

According to today's updated totals, the U.S. is virtually even against Portugal (35W-36L-29T), and a 68.8% chance of advancing. Again, those stats don't take injuries or suspensions into account (or the possibility that Germany might rest some of its players against the U.S. in the last game if they clinch a berth in their second match).

Sometimes a team will rest players, sometimes they'll play for position within the group depending upon who they might play in the next match.

In our case, the #1 team in Group G (our group) plays the #2 team in Group H (Russia, South Korea, Belgium, Algeria) in the first knockout game, and the #2 team in our group plays Group H's #1 team.

I've seen in the past where sometimes a team that's locked up a slot will still go all-out in the final game to make sure they stay #1, lest they end up #2 and play a tough #1. I don't see Germany worrying about that out of Group H, but I've seen it where the potential options are to play a red-hot Spain or Brazil, or to win out and play a lesser opponent. In fact, I suspect that's what will happen with Group H's top team in order to evade Germany in their first knockout game.

[Bob78164]

Good bye, England. England can't catch Costa Rica (which is guaranteed to advance), and the other two teams with a 3-point lead on England are playing each other, so at least one of them also will finish ahead of England. --Bob

[thguy65]

Good bye, England. England can't catch Costa Rica (which is guaranteed to advance), and the other two teams with a 3-point lead on England are playing each other, so at least one of them also will finish ahead of England. --Bob

This joke has been making the rounds on the Internets:

The English World Cup team visited an orphanage in Brazil. "It’s heartbreaking to see their sad little faces with no hope”,said Jose age 6.

[silverscreenselect]

Good bye, England.

They could always schedule a friendly against Spain.

[silverscreenselect]

In the space of about thirty seconds, the U.S. chances for advancing in the World Cup went from 100% (if they had beaten Portugal), to 76%, according to Nate Silver. According to Silver, the odds on the U.S./Germany game are 14%W-22%T-64% loss (subject to minor change when the stats are recalculated tomorrow morning). Right now, no team in the group has clinched a spot or been eliminated.

Here's what it boils down to:

If the US wins or ties, they qualify (if they tie, both they and Germany qualify, so there's a chance both sides may be willing to play somewhat defensively if the score is tied in the later stages of the match).

If the US loses, it depends on what happens in Portugal/Ghana (according to Silver, the odds are Portugal 29%W-29%T-32%L.

If Portugal and Ghana tie, the US is in. If either team wins, it will boil down to goal differential. The US has a five goal advantage right now over Portugal in goal differential, so unless Portugal wins and the U.S. loses by a combined total of at least five goals, the U.S. is in. However, the U.S. only has a two goal advantage over Ghana right now, so a Ghana win or a U.S. loss by more than one goal would eliminate the U.S. If goal differential is tied, then total goals would determine the team advancing, and the U.S. now leads Ghana 4-3 in total goals. If total goals are tied, the U.S. would advance based on the head-to-head win over Ghana.

[SpacemanSpiff]

If the US wins or ties, they qualify (if they tie, both they and Germany qualify, so there's a chance both sides may be willing to play somewhat defensively if the score is tied in the later stages of the match).

It's been known to happen before. I'm sure the foreign conspiracy folks (especially in Portugal and Ghana) are pointing that out.

From a website with a few historical World Cup conspiracy theories (some not so theoretical) http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/78 ... ina#!2wQG7

In the 1982 World Cup, a first-round match between Austria and West Germany apparently was fixed. Both clubs would advance to the second round if West Germany won by the exact score of 1-0. Eleven minutes into the match, West Germany scored. From that point on, the match was an exercise in futility, as that 1-0 score held -- to both teams' benefit. Despite a protest from Algeria, whose national team wound up on the outside looking in thanks to the fix, FIFA allowed the result to stand.

(FWIW, if you read that entire article, you'll note the Peru/Argentina game. I recall the 6-0 Peru loss in 1978 to Argentina. Peru wasn't that good a team, but they were a defensive juggernaut. The only way most of us could figure they'd give up that many goals is if Peru thought they'd heard a halftime whistle and went to the locker early. These shenanigans is one of the reason that the final matches in group play happen at the same time -- or, in the extreme, why the EPL plays 10 games all at once on the last week of the season.)

In short, root for a Portugal-Ghana tie, or at least a 1-0 Portuguese victory. Or better yet, hope for the conspiracy.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Italia goes home!

It was a very entertaining game, with Uruguay winning 1-0 to advance (with Costa Rica), and Italy and England going home.

OTOH, Luis Suarez of Uruguay needs a muzzle. Or at least a visit from Yukon Cornelius and Hermie.

[SpacemanSpiff]

On the morning of the big match, a couple of unpleasant things.

One, something I heard on NPR this morning. Of the four teams that played in Manaus previously, all four lost their next game.

(In case you've forgotten, Manaus is the steampit that US and Portugal played at on Sunday; one played said it was like playing in Dallas at 4pm in the middle of August. It also set history when there was the first official FIFA-sanctioned water break in the game.)

By that reckoning, both US and Portugal would lose, and that's very bad for the US (unless the losses are both by one goal).

Secondly, Ghana has suspended two players from their team and sent them home (although, upon further review, one wouldn't have played anyway because of two yellow cards). Further, there's the whole row about the Ghanaians boycotting the last game over money, and the national federation showing up with a bucketload of cash for the players yesterday.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/201 ... -suspended

It's going to be an interesting pair of games in a few hours time.

[EDIT 10:00am ET: CNN reports heavy rains in Recife, where the Germany-US match is scheduled. Extensive flooding is reported, and stadium access is difficult. But, as they say, the show must go on.]