Fearless Fosdick's Fabulous Forecast NCAA Tourney style

[eyégor]

Now a few thing will probably change during the course of this weeks tournaments - BUT!! _ as of today at 2:00 easterm, I predict the brackets will look like this:

Detroit Bracket

Omaha sub-bracket

1 Tennessee v 16 Morgan State (MEAC winner)
8 Baylor v 9 UNLV
5 Washington State v 12 Souther Alabama
4 Michigan State v 13 Stephen F Austin (Southland winner)

DC sub-bracket

6 Pittsburgh v 11 Texas A&M
3 Xavier(A10 winner) v 14 Siena
7 Gonzaga v Mississippi State
2 Georgetown v 15 Belmont

Houston Bracket

Birmingham sub-bracket

1 North Carolina v play-in winner
play-in game Mount St Mary's v Alabama St(SWAC winner)
8 Arizona v 9 St Mary's
5 Notre Dame v 12 Western Kentucky
4 Indiana v 13 George Mason

North Little Flock sub-bracket

6 Marquette v 11 Mississippi
3 Wisconsin v 14 UC Santa Barbara(Big West winner)
7 West Virginia v 10 Kentucky
2 Texas v 15 San Diego

Charlotte Bracket

Raleigh sub-bracket

1 Memphis v 16 American University ( Patriot winner)
8 Miami(Fl) v 9 Kent State(MAC winner)
5 Butler v 12 Oregon wasDayton
4 Drake v 13 Oral Roberts

Tampa sub-bracket

6 Vanderbilt v 11 Arkansas
3 Connecticut v 14 Cornell
7 USC v 10 Illinois State
2 Kansas v UMBC(America East winner)

Phoenix bracket

Anaheim sub-bracket

1 Duke v 16 Winthrop
8 Purdue v 9 Davidson
5 Clemson v 12 Ohio State
4 Stanford v 13 Austin Peay

Denver sub-bracket

6 BYU v 11 Massachusetts
3 Louisville v 14 Utah State (WAC winner)
7 Oklahoma v 10 Kansas State (typo)
2 UCLA v 15 Portland State(Big Sky winner)

[Appa23]

I can tell you immediately that you are wrong about the location of Kansas' 1st and 2nd round games. They will be playing in Omaha, 100% guaranteed. Moreover, they will be playing on Thursday and Saturday.

In addition, you need to keep in mind that 1st and 2nd round game locations are not tied to one regional. Rather, for example, Omaha might have two 1st round games from the Midwest Regional and two 1st round games from the South Regional.

They are not subregionals but rather more like "pods".

[eyégor]

I can tell you immediately that you are wrong about the location of Kansas' 1st and 2nd round games. They will be playing in Omaha, 100% guaranteed. Moreover, they will be playing on Thursday and Saturday.

In addition, you need to keep in mind that 1st and 2nd round game locations are not tied to one regional. Rather, for example, Omaha might have two 1st round games from the Midwest Regional and two 1st round games from the South Regional.

They are not subregionals but rather more like "pods".

Swap Tampa & Omaha - doesn't matter. & trying to predict their pod system is enough to make your head hurt. My bigger concern was keeping 2 Big East teams from playing in the 2nd round.

[Appa23]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.

Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

[eyégor]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.


Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

[Peter5858]

Buffacuse notwithstanding, I say Boeheim is headed for the Not In Tournament. They got toasted by Villanova by about 20 points today in the Big East tournament

[eyégor]

Buffacuse notwithstanding, I say Boeheim is headed for the Not In Tournament. They got toasted by Villanova by about 20 points today in the Big East tournament

As I said earlier subject to change. Break out the crayon & cross out 'cuse & scrawl in Ohio State in crayon

[earendel]

Buffacuse notwithstanding, I say Boeheim is headed for the Not In Tournament. They got toasted by Villanova by about 20 points today in the Big East tournament

The local media suggested that this was a "play-in" game for the Big Dance - the two were the 8 and 9 seeds in the Big East tournament and talk has been that 6 teams will be going for sure and the winner of this game could be the seventh.

[eyégor]

I forgot to post the last few teams I didn't put in

Oregon
New Mexico
UAB
St Joe's

[Appa23]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.


Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

NCAA took heat more for letting lower seeded teams have de facto home games versus high seeded teams.

The entire idea of being a #1 seed (let alone THE #1 seed) is that you get to play as close to home as possible.

No offense, but I trust Joe Lunardi's "Bracketology" picks much more than yours. He watches games and recognizes that the PAC-10 will get a #1 seed (UCLA) as one of the two toughest leagues. (look at RPI ratings)

[earendel]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.


Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

NCAA took heat more for letting lower seeded teams have de facto home games versus high seeded teams.

The entire idea of being a #1 seed (let alone THE #1 seed) is that you get to play as close to home as possible.

No offense, but I trust Joe Lunardi's "Bracketology" picks much more than yours. He watches games and recognizes that the PAC-10 will get a #1 seed (UCLA) as one of the two toughest leagues. (look at RPI ratings)

According to the RPI, of the top 55 teams, the breakdown is as follows:

Big East 9
SEC 6
Big XII 6
Pac 10 6
Big 10 5
ACC 4

It would seem that on this basis the Big East should have a #1 seed, but that won't happen because their highest-ranked team is Georgetown (#9 in the polls).

[Appa23]

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

NCAA took heat more for letting lower seeded teams have de facto home games versus high seeded teams.

The entire idea of being a #1 seed (let alone THE #1 seed) is that you get to play as close to home as possible.

No offense, but I trust Joe Lunardi's "Bracketology" picks much more than yours. He watches games and recognizes that the PAC-10 will get a #1 seed (UCLA) as one of the two toughest leagues. (look at RPI ratings)

According to the RPI, of the top 55 teams, the breakdown is as follows:

Big East 9
SEC 6
Big XII 6
Pac 10 6
Big 10 5
ACC 4

It would seem that on this basis the Big East should have a #1 seed, but that won't happen because their highest-ranked team is Georgetown (#9 in the polls).

Actually, Ear, the measure is overall league RPI, not individual teams' RPIs. As of March 11, 2008:

ACC is #1
PAC-10 is #2
Big XII is #3
SEC is #4
Big East is #5
Big 10 is #6
Atlantic 10 is #7
Missouri Valley is #8
Mountain West is #9
Conference USA is #10.

http://www.kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2008

[andrewjackson]

How in the world is Purdue an 8 seed?

We finished second in the Big 10 (ahead of Indiana who you have as a 4 seed), we're ranked 16 or 17 in the polls, our RPI is 36 but we have a winning record against the top 20 (unlike Indiana), and we are 5-3 against the RPI top 50.

No way we should have a lower seed than Indiana and certainly not 12-16 teams lower.

[Rexer25]

How in the world is Purdue an 8 seed?

We finished second in the Big 10 (ahead of Indiana who you have as a 4 seed), we're ranked 16 or 17 in the polls, our RPI is 36 but we have a winning record against the top 20 (unlike Indiana), and we are 5-3 against the RPI top 50.

No way we should have a lower seed than Indiana and certainly not 12-16 teams lower.

It's because eyegor is predisposed toward Indiana because they used to have a troll as a head coach.

[eyégor]

NCAA took heat more for letting lower seeded teams have de facto home games versus high seeded teams.

The entire idea of being a #1 seed (let alone THE #1 seed) is that you get to play as close to home as possible.

No offense, but I trust Joe Lunardi's "Bracketology" picks much more than yours. He watches games and recognizes that the PAC-10 will get a #1 seed (UCLA) as one of the two toughest leagues. (look at RPI ratings)

According to the RPI, of the top 55 teams, the breakdown is as follows:

Big East 9
SEC 6
Big XII 6
Pac 10 6
Big 10 5
ACC 4

It would seem that on this basis the Big East should have a #1 seed, but that won't happen because their highest-ranked team is Georgetown (#9 in the polls).

Actually, Ear, the measure is overall league RPI, not individual teams' RPIs. (I was off ny one with the Pac-10. )

ACC is #1, Big XII is #2, PAC-10 is #3, and Big East is #4.

Actually, the Big East is #5. - I see you caught that.

No offense taken. I did this over a lunch hour - I doubt those paid to do this take a little longer. I can't comment on Lunarski, because ESPN makes you pay for the privilege to read for what their talking heads have to say. I can tell you that, compared to Jeff Goodman at Fox Sports, we oly differed 2 teams. He had Arizona State & Oregon in, I had Ole Miss & Dayton. ( & I would have had Oregon in if I thought Kentucky stayed home like they should)

Of the 63 teams we both see going into the tourney, we vary by more than 1 seeding position only 9 times, 7 times 2 spots twice 3 spots. 3 upper half/ 6 bottom half.


Maybe these experts are slightly overpaid.

But I keep forgetting, you have determined long ago that I, among many others here, am not allowed an opinion. That right seems to reside solely in the heartland.




My apologies.

[MarkBarrett]

As long as the committee doesn't find a way to keep St. Mary's (25 wins)out then it will be the first time the WCC has three teams in the dance.

First #1 to go out? Tennessee

[gotribego26]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.


Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

If UNC wins the ACC tourney they will play in Raleigh & Charlotte - the heat on the NCAA has been on lower seeds - the rules say a number 1 can play nearby but not in their own Arena.

I think Duke has along shot at a #1 - they need to win the ACC and have Tenn, Kansas and UCLA lose their tourney (I think Memphis is safe) .

If a lot of confernece champs lose their tourney I think #1 s will be wide open.

[macrae1234]

How can Arizona be a number 8 they lost twicw to ASU and are below them in the PAC 10 standings.

[mellytu74]

The Atlantic 10 is nuts this year.

I'm not sure that Dayton will have enough in its tank tomorrow to challenge Xavier after blowing a lead and almost losing to St. Louis this afternoon in overtime.

Given the Flyers' dip during conference season (much of it due to injury), I think they do need to beat Xavier and get to the A-10 semifinals.

I think the three A-10 teams will be Xavier, UMass & Temple, which will play Xavier in the finals.

Of course, I say this as a Temple fan.

But, since their turnaround in the second half against Duke (down 20 points, cuts the leads to seven), Temple has gone 12-5. Four of those losses were by a total of 11 points. The other one -- Dayton at Dayton -- was by 11.

The Owls have already beaten UMass & Xavier (by 19).

Right now, they are playing well, with good defense.

I think what might hurt them in the end, though, is a spotty (7-7) out of conference record. They had leads and couldn't hold them (unlike later in the season when they learned how to shut things down).

Ironically, it will be the opposite of John Chaney's last year, when Temple had a splendid OOC record (beating nationally ranked Maryland & Alabama and highly regarded Miami before not being able to win in the A-10).

[Appa23]

Also, North Carolian definitely will be playing in Raleigh and will be the #1 seed for the Charlotte Regional.


Similarly, UCLA will be playing in Anaheim.

No chance in heck that Duke is a #1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney, after losing to NC.

Memphis, Tennessee, UNC, and likely UCLA are your top seeds. Memphis will get Houston regional, and Tennessee will get the Detroit regional.

I don't see NC getting the Charlotte/Raleigh connection after all the heat the NCAA has taken for scheduling home games in the tournament for top seeds.

as for UCLA as a top seed, I don't quite see it. In fact, I used Duke more as a default pick because I don't sense anyone other than NC, Tennessee & Mamphis as #1s

If UNC wins the ACC tourney they will play in Raleigh & Charlotte - the heat on the NCAA has been on lower seeds - the rules say a number 1 can play nearby but not in their own Arena.

I think Duke has along shot at a #1 - they need to win the ACC and have Tenn, Kansas and UCLA lose their tourney (I think Memphis is safe) .

If a lot of confernece champs lose their tourney I think #1 s will be wide open.

At least with Kansas, their seeding may be set even if they lose in the Big XII final. IIRC, this is the last year where the Big XII tourney ends within one hour of the announcement of the brackets. In recent years, the ACC and Big XII tournaments have ended so close to the bracket announcement that teams have received #1 seeds even though they lost the final b/c the NCAA sets the #1 seeds early in the process.

One of the Omaha sports columnists did the mock selection with the NCAA last year, and he noted how much of the field and seeding is set well ahead of time. There really is not as much movement and "in/out" as everyone thinks is the case behind closed doors. (He got to be co-chairman of the selection committee, along with Andy Katz, I think.)

[Appa23]

According to the RPI, of the top 55 teams, the breakdown is as follows:

Big East 9
SEC 6
Big XII 6
Pac 10 6
Big 10 5
ACC 4

It would seem that on this basis the Big East should have a #1 seed, but that won't happen because their highest-ranked team is Georgetown (#9 in the polls).

Actually, Ear, the measure is overall league RPI, not individual teams' RPIs. (I was off ny one with the Pac-10. )

ACC is #1, Big XII is #2, PAC-10 is #3, and Big East is #4.

Actually, the Big East is #5. - I see you caught that.

No offense taken. I did this over a lunch hour - I doubt those paid to do this take a little longer. I can't comment on Lunarski, because ESPN makes you pay for the privilege to read for what their talking heads have to say. I can tell you that, compared to Jeff Goodman at Fox Sports, we oly differed 2 teams. He had Arizona State & Oregon in, I had Ole Miss & Dayton. ( & I would have had Oregon in if I thought Kentucky stayed home like they should)

Of the 63 teams we both see going into the tourney, we vary by more than 1 seeding position only 9 times, 7 times 2 spots twice 3 spots. 3 upper half/ 6 bottom half.


Maybe these experts are slightly overpaid.

But I keep forgetting, you have determined long ago that I, among many others here, am not allowed an opinion. That right seems to reside solely in the heartland.




My apologies.

No reason to apologize. You have every right to an opinion.

However, I will note when that opinion does not reflect the established facts, like where certain teams will be playing.

For example, the NCAA has all but given Kansas engraved invitations for its appearance in Omaha.

[gotribego26]

At least with Kansas, their seeding may be set even if they lose in the Big XII final. IIRC, this is the last year where the Big XII tourney ends within one hour of the announcement of the brackets. In recent years, the ACC and Big XII tournaments have ended so close to the bracket announcement that teams have received #1 seeds even though they lost the final b/c the NCAA sets the #1 seeds early in the process.

You are correct - I forgot about this affecting the ACC - they've talked around here that UNC is 1 and Duke a 2 - unless one of them loses before Sunday - like wise some of the Sunday Championship games would have to see favorites knocked out before then.

[mellytu74]

A couple of local college basketball writers did the mock bracket thing in the past.

They, too, commented on how little "in/out" there is because the committee members have something like 40 at large/bubble teams in mind when they enter the room.

That's why when there's an unexpected auto bid winner -- your San Diego State, your George Mason -- the committee has a pretty good idea of how small that bubble gets.

[Appa23]

Thanks for the acknowledgement Tribe and Melly.

It is not my first time at the rodeo.

[mellytu74]

As long as the committee doesn't find a way to keep St. Mary's (25 wins)out then it will be the first time the WCC has three teams in the dance.

First #1 to go out? Tennessee

I agree that Tennessee is most likely the first top seed to lose.