WWTBAM Bored

Pres. Trump said this after a soldier won more than $400K on the prediction market Polymarket betting on the fall of Venezuelan president Maduro and was arrested for fraudulent gambling. The soldier was in the Army unit that took down Maduro.

I couldn’t agree more.

Casinos and sports betting are everywhere thanks to the internet. Companies like Draft Kings and Fanduel, which used to pretend to be fantasy football websites back when online sports betting was illegal, now shamelessly promote in-game mini-bets and groom compulsive gamblers.

Former casino mogul Trump isn’t completely innocent in this mess. His sons have invested in Polymarket and are considering creating their own gambling site.

Neither is Congress. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna wrote: “I don’t agree with what he did and he should be required to disgorge all the profits however, unless the DOJ plans on doing Congress next, this is not justice.”

jarnon wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2026 5:11 pm

Casinos and sports betting are everywhere thanks to the internet. Companies like Draft Kings and Fanduel, which used to pretend to be fantasy football websites back when online sports betting was illegal, now shamelessly promote in-game mini-bets and groom compulsive gamblers.

Traditional sports gambling sites like Draft Kings and Fanduel aren't the real problem. It's the prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. They don't "take bets" in the traditional sense. They are futures markets and are regulated, or more precisely, not regulated as such. Some of their action is based on traditional sports gambling. You can bet on the results of tonight's games or how many points a particular player will score (over or under). However, they also book real-world events.

Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts on specific future events. With traditional commodities markets, you buy and sell contracts for a particular commodity on a particular future date. Kalshi and Polymarket set up the market and individual users buy and sell the contracts with each other. The market's assessment of the likelihood of an event determines the current cost of a contract. Kalshi and Polymarket receive a transaction fee per contract whenever traded. When the event becomes final, those who are correct receive $1 per contract, and those who are incorrect lose.

Right now, for example, you can buy a contract that says that Kash Patel will be out as FBI director by May 1 for 32 cents. If you are correct, you will receive $1.00 for a profit of 68 cents. If you don't believe Patel will be out by May 1, you can buy a "no" contract for 69 cents. The price on these contracts fluctuates over time, so people can sell their existing contracts at any time. If you buy a Kash out by May 1 for 32 cents and the market goes down to 10 cents, you can hold on and hope for the best or cash out and at least save 10 cents on your initial purchase. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer dynamic event pricing during sporting events. At any time during a professional ball game, you can bet on the end result, knowing the score at the time.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer pricing on various categories, including climate (high and low temperatures in a specific location), economics (interest rate decisions), election results and other events like when there will be a final peace agreement with Iran. There's even a market for how long Trump will speak at tonight's White House Correspondents dinner. You can't bet on events with multiple possible outcomes per se. For example, you couldn't bet on who would win the Best Actor Oscar this year. However, you could bet yes or no on whether each of the five nominees would win. Obviously, these markets offer extensive opportunities for insider trading, such as the soldier who was arrested after he correctly bet on whether Maduro would be ousted in Venezuela (he was allegedly privy to the battle plan details).

The Trump boys are in tight with Kalshi, too.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2026 6:32 pm

Traditional sports gambling sites like Draft Kings and Fanduel aren't the real problem.

Your life history gives you a better perspective. I think all gambling is a vice like drinking.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2026 6:32 pm

If you buy a Kash out by May 1 for 32 cents and the market goes down to 10 cents, you can hold on and hope for the best or cash out and at least save 10 cents on your initial purchase.

I see what you did there.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2026 6:32 pm

There's even a market for how long Trump will speak at tonight's White House Correspondents dinner.

You lost that bet.

jarnon wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 26, 2026 5:49 am

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 25, 2026 6:32 pm

Traditional sports gambling sites like Draft Kings and Fanduel aren't the real problem.

Your life history gives you a better perspective. I think all gambling is a vice like drinking.

Gambling can have tremendous adverse consequences for the gambler, whether it's sporting events, card games, slot machines (online slots make them acceessible to anyone with a phone and a few spare minutes), high temperatures, or foreign invasions. But when you get into events with major consequences, that's a different story. The soldier who has been arrested for betting on Maduro's capture had inside information. He was also dumb enough to let some of his acquaintances on social media know. But if word of this had gotten back to Maduro and his troops had advance warning, the results of the raid could have been far different. Russia and China have far better intelligence services than Venezuela did and could presumably alert Iran about anything similar they learn. This could result in a catastrophic failure of a future military operation.

And I made my first comment in this thread before I knew about the attempted shooting last night. But on a more serious note, I don't know what the Kalshi rules are for a situation where an event is cancelled. If the would-be shooter had let someone know what he intended, under bets on Trump's speech could have been a very lucrative proposition.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 26, 2026 7:55 am

But if word of this had gotten back to Maduro and his troops had advance warning, the results of the raid could have been far different. Russia and China have far better intelligence services than Venezuela did and could presumably alert Iran about anything similar they learn. This could result in a catastrophic failure of a future military operation.

You make a good point. Insider betting that jeopardizes a military operation is tremendously worse than throwing a ball game.

Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby enters treatment program for a gambling addiction following transfer

Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby has taken an indefinite leave of absence from the team to enter a residential treatment program for a gambling addiction. Texas Tech and Sorsby announced the move in a statement released on Monday. The school said it is “committed to supporting Brendan through his recovery process and to ensure his long-term health and well-being.”

Sorsby was one of the biggest names in this year’s transfer portal. He transferred from Cincinnati, which then announced on Feb. 26 it would sue the quarterback for breaching his name, image and likeness contract. According to the lawsuit, Sorsby signed an NIL agreement in July 2025 covering the 2025 and ’26 seasons and that there would be a $1 million buyout if he transferred, payable within 30 days. Sorsby announced on Dec. 15 that he was entering the transfer portal and announced on Jan. 4 that he would play for Texas Tech. Sorsby received the most lucrative deal of the portal period — a reported $5 million — to return to his home state for his final season.

On Monday, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that the NCAA is investigating Texas Tech transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby, for making "thousands of online bets on a variety of sports via a gambling app." Suddenly, a Heisman hopeful for a College Football Playoff contender is in the headlines. There is no allegation that Sorsby's gambling led him to impact outcomes, either team or individual, during his previous stops at Cincinnati or Indiana. There is no indication law enforcement are currently involved. However, the NCAA strictly prohibits athletes from betting on college or professional sports. Punishments range from the loss of 30-50% of a season, to a "permanent loss of collegiate eligibility in all sports."

It was not immediately known how Monday’s announcement could impact Sorsby’s availability for the season.