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The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:17 pm
by Spock
I decided to put this in a separate thread.
I have been thinking about my returns in an actively managed stock account since the early 2000's VS the indices.
I have lost track of how much was put in in a few years at that time, but I am estimating high so my returns might even be higher than shown. Nothing else was put in since the early oughts and there might have even been some pulled out to make a land payment-but I am ignoring that to be conservative.
My return over the last 25 (or so) years is 27X or 2,700% with basically no tech stocks* until recently when I bought Palantir and I also held some IBM for a recent relatively short period.
The best numbers I can find quickly for the Indices return over 25 years (others can feel free to provide better numbers)
1) S&P 561% with re-investment of dividends
2) Nasdaq 687%
3) Dow Jones-270%
S and P was the only one to mention with the re-investment of dividends-but when I look at my high number VS their low number-it seems like the S and P should be higher. I wonder if they are accounting for the dividends on dividends on dividends that has lead to my high return.
For example, a dividend re-invested in Year 1 has collected a lot of dividends by year 25 with dividends being paid on those dividends-etc etc. Maybe that is just to hard for those that compile total S and P returns over a long time to account for that.
I just wonder if the actual total returns on the S and P (for example) are that low-I think that they might be missing the dividend snowball effect.
Obviously, returns over a short period are easy, maybe long term is harder when dividends are important.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2025 9:38 am
by Spock
Just to clear things up and FTR
I am not bragging but I am more mystified and I am trying to figure out if my performance being better than the S and P is because of a long-term glitch in the calculation of the return of the indices.
Now asking for any hints
Littlest Spock is starting a small Roth IRA with my help ($2000) and I plan to split it 4 ways.
1) ONEOK (OKE)-solid on this one
2) Coca-Cola-It will likely still be there when he is 70.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2025 1:33 pm
by Spock
Spock wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 9:38 am
Just to clear things up and FTR
I am not bragging but I am more mystified and I am trying to figure out if my performance being better than the S and P is because of a long-term glitch in the calculation of the return of the indices.
Now asking for any hints
Littlest Spock is starting a small Roth IRA with my help ($2000) and I plan to split it 4 ways.
1) ONEOK (OKE)-solid on this one
2) Coca-Cola-It will likely still be there when he is 70.
[/quote.]
Oops-had to go before I finished.
I am looking for any ideas for a growth-oriented company that probably does not pay dividends as one of the 4 choices for Littlest Spock.
That is not my area-so any help would be appreciated.
I think I have several narrowed down as a possible third one.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2025 6:10 pm
by silverscreenselect
The S&P Total Return Index does account for reinvestment of dividends, but the problem is that the S&P is readjusted each quarter to add and remove companies so that the 500 top companies as of the first day of the next quarter are included. As a result, you have companies moving in and out from quarter to quarter and you can't calculate the compounding of dividends very well. The Dow comprises 30 stocks, but since 2004 there have been 21 changes in the makeup of those 30 stocks (some stocks were both added and deleted during that time). Amazon, NVIDIA, and Sherwin-Williams were added last year, replacing Walgreens, Intel, and Dow.
Although you can invest in index funds, the idea of either individual stock trading or mutual funds is to try to do better than the overall index by getting expert management in the case of mutual funds or relying on your own expertise in the case of individual traders. How much that's true is a matter of question. I do know that mutual funds track and report their progress against the major indexes and a fund that can't significantly outperform those indexes won't attract a lot of investors.
The only investment I have that's roughly comparable is my IRA. Back in the mid-80s, when you could invest in IRAs regardless of whether your employer had a retirement plan, I started an IRA in a single mutual fund with a total investment of about $1300 over a two-year period. Dividends and capital gains were reinvested and I paid a nominal custodial fee each year (in addition to the management fee for the mutual fund). I haven't taken any money out of that except for an RMD this year. The total value of that fund is now about $70,000 (including the RMD I took out last month). That's a total return of almost 5400% over a 37-38 year period. The only decision I made was the mutual fund to invest in originally and the decision not to take any money out until this year.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2025 2:58 pm
by Spock
SSS>>>"The only investment I have that's roughly comparable is my IRA. Back in the mid-80s, when you could invest in IRAs regardless of whether your employer had a retirement plan, I started an IRA in a single mutual fund with a total investment of about $1300 over a two-year period. Dividends and capital gains were reinvested and I paid a nominal custodial fee each year (in addition to the management fee for the mutual fund). I haven't taken any money out of that except for an RMD this year. The total value of that fund is now about $70,000 (including the RMD I took out last month). That's a total return of .almost 5400% over a 37-38 year period. The only decision I made was the mutual fund to invest in originally and the decision not to take any money out until this year."<<<<
Yeah, that is the perfect laboratory to determine returns.
Pretty much agree with everything else you wrote. To figure theoretical returns perfectly you would have to know the date the dividend was re-invested and how many shares you bought on that date -etc-I simply don't think it is possible as a "look-back" exercise-
Jealous that you got the headstart on me.
I think I figured out the 3rd company for Littlest Spock (Age 22) and one of my goals with this one is to get him thinking in decades and not news-cycles or quarters or even years.
The company is Pulte Homes and it is a long-term play on stock buybacks. I have never been a real fan of them-more of a dividend guy-but done right they can really work.
Homebuilders-Pulte (PHM) and NVR both have around the same market cap-but the differeence is that NVR has been diligently following a disciplined stock buy-back plan (no dividends) for decades.
Currently, PHM price is about $115 and NVR is about $7,500 per share.
25 years ago-NVR was priced roughly where PHM is today.
I have listened to enough YouTube stuff to figure that PHM and Toll Brothers (Another home builder) are trying to replicate NVR.
Littlest Spock's main question when I mentioned the home builder was "what about interest rates?" This is a reasonable question if you are thinking in news-cycles or quarters or whatever.
I told him-"I don't care. We can't do anyting about that and we need to think long-term. The stock will do what it does and hopefully you make money regardless of the buybacks but if they work-it will be really fun for you."
The dividend is less than 1% so that is only a minor factor.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2025 9:54 am
by flockofseagulls104
Perhaps we should have a separate forum for stock market discussions.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2025 10:13 am
by Weyoun
Have you considered pon farr? All this public masturbation is a bit much.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2025 3:38 pm
by Beebs52
Gosh. Y'all could just ignore the thread if it's so annoying.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2025 7:19 pm
by tlynn78
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 3:38 pm
Gosh. Y'all could just ignore the thread if it's so annoying.
Then where would they get their tingles?
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2025 7:36 pm
by flockofseagulls104
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 3:38 pm
Gosh. Y'all could just ignore the thread if it's so annoying.
That's what I said about threads that ended up being exiled here.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2025 9:20 pm
by silverscreenselect
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 7:36 pm
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 3:38 pm
Gosh. Y'all could just ignore the thread if it's so annoying.
That's what I said about threads that ended up being exiled here.
Most of the threads that mention the stock market are political in nature, attributing gains or losses to the various policies of the two parties.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2025 9:24 am
by flockofseagulls104
silverscreenselect wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 9:20 pm
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 7:36 pm
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 3:38 pm
Gosh. Y'all could just ignore the thread if it's so annoying.
That's what I said about threads that ended up being exiled here.
Most of the threads that mention the stock market are political in nature, attributing gains or losses to the various policies of the two parties.
Thanks for that insightful bit of information. I will heretofore endeavor to think of a political reason for every positive or negative point change on whatever index and share it with you. And then I will pretend to panic about it. It will be valid for that day, at least.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2025 4:21 pm
by Beebs52
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 9:24 am
silverscreenselect wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 9:20 pm
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 7:36 pm
That's what I said about threads that ended up being exiled here.
Most of the threads that mention the stock market are political in nature, attributing gains or losses to the various policies of the two parties.
Thanks for that insightful bit of information. I will heretofore endeavor to think of a political reason for every positive or negative point change on whatever index and share it with you. And then I will pretend to panic about it. It will be valid for that day, at least.
People...
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2025 6:51 pm
by flockofseagulls104
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 4:21 pm
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 9:24 am
silverscreenselect wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 9:20 pm
Most of the threads that mention the stock market are political in nature, attributing gains or losses to the various policies of the two parties.
Thanks for that insightful bit of information. I will heretofore endeavor to think of a political reason for every positive or negative point change on whatever index and share it with you. And then I will pretend to panic about it. It will be valid for that day, at least.
People...
What?
Not angry or upset.
Just bored....
You'd think since we have lost our democracy and the fascists and white supremacists have taken over everything and the economy crashing because of tariffs and Trump starting WWIII, the leftists would be going crazy here in exile land. Or at least BJ would be posting Epstein photos.... But for a week all we've had was a stock market discussion. At least over in the old forum, we have ear showing his true TDS self, when over here he tries to pretend he's non-partisan.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2025 9:36 am
by tlynn78
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 6:51 pm
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 4:21 pm
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 9:24 am
Thanks for that insightful bit of information. I will heretofore endeavor to think of a political reason for every positive or negative point change on whatever index and share it with you. And then I will pretend to panic about it. It will be valid for that day, at least.
People...
What?
Not angry or upset.
Just bored....
You'd think since we have lost our democracy and the fascists and white supremacists have taken over everything and the economy crashing because of tariffs and Trump starting WWIII, the leftists would be going crazy here in exile land. Or at least BJ would be posting Epstein photos.... But for a week all we've had was a stock market discussion. At least over in the old forum, we have ear showing his true TDS self, when over here he tries to pretend he's non-partisan.
I'm sure they're just saving their energy and brainpower so they can come share their outrage and dismay about being lied to about the Russian collusion hoax. (and apologize. I'm certain)
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:39 am
by Weyoun
tlynn78 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 02, 2025 9:36 am
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 6:51 pm
Beebs52 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 4:21 pm
People...
What?
Not angry or upset.
Just bored....
You'd think since we have lost our democracy and the fascists and white supremacists have taken over everything and the economy crashing because of tariffs and Trump starting WWIII, the leftists would be going crazy here in exile land. Or at least BJ would be posting Epstein photos.... But for a week all we've had was a stock market discussion. At least over in the old forum, we have ear showing his true TDS self, when over here he tries to pretend he's non-partisan.
I'm sure they're just saving their energy and brainpower so they can come share their outrage and dismay about being lied to about the Russian collusion hoax. (and apologize. I'm certain)
Russia did use bots to generate misinformation that dummies like you believed. Whether or not it was substantial is unclear since you were stupid to begin with and were always going to vote for Trump. Trump is mad because he thinks it put an asterisk on his election and he couldn’t get past that with good governance.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2025 7:21 pm
by tlynn78
Weyoun wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:39 am
tlynn78 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 02, 2025 9:36 am
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 6:51 pm
What?
Not angry or upset.
Just bored....
You'd think since we have lost our democracy and the fascists and white supremacists have taken over everything and the economy crashing because of tariffs and Trump starting WWIII, the leftists would be going crazy here in exile land. Or at least BJ would be posting Epstein photos.... But for a week all we've had was a stock market discussion. At least over in the old forum, we have ear showing his true TDS self, when over here he tries to pretend he's non-partisan.
I'm sure they're just saving their energy and brainpower so they can come share their outrage and dismay about being lied to about the Russian collusion hoax. (and apologize. I'm certain)
Russia did use bots to generate misinformation that dummies like you believed. Whether or not it was substantial is unclear since you were stupid to begin with and were always going to vote for Trump. Trump is mad because he thinks it put an asterisk on his election and he couldn’t get past that with good governance.
Cool story, boo. Now do the "collusion" part...
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2025 10:08 am
by flockofseagulls104
Weyoun wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:39 am
tlynn78 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 02, 2025 9:36 am
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 31, 2025 6:51 pm
What?
Not angry or upset.
Just bored....
You'd think since we have lost our democracy and the fascists and white supremacists have taken over everything and the economy crashing because of tariffs and Trump starting WWIII, the leftists would be going crazy here in exile land. Or at least BJ would be posting Epstein photos.... But for a week all we've had was a stock market discussion. At least over in the old forum, we have ear showing his true TDS self, when over here he tries to pretend he's non-partisan.
I'm sure they're just saving their energy and brainpower so they can come share their outrage and dismay about being lied to about the Russian collusion hoax. (and apologize. I'm certain)
Russia did use bots to generate misinformation that dummies like you believed. Whether or not it was substantial is unclear since you were stupid to begin with and were always going to vote for Trump. Trump is mad because he thinks it put an asterisk on his election and he couldn’t get past that with good governance.
What misinformation was that? Hunter's laptop? The Steele Dossier?
51 intelligence individuals seemed to have created their own misinformation, and they didn't use bots!
Look in the mirror before you call anyone else stupid.
Re: The Farmer VS the Indices
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2025 11:45 pm
by Weyoun
flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 06, 2025 10:08 am
Weyoun wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:39 am
tlynn78 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 02, 2025 9:36 am
I'm sure they're just saving their energy and brainpower so they can come share their outrage and dismay about being lied to about the Russian collusion hoax. (and apologize. I'm certain)
Russia did use bots to generate misinformation that dummies like you believed. Whether or not it was substantial is unclear since you were stupid to begin with and were always going to vote for Trump. Trump is mad because he thinks it put an asterisk on his election and he couldn’t get past that with good governance.
What misinformation was that? Hunter's laptop? The Steele Dossier?
51 intelligence individuals seemed to have created their own misinformation, and they didn't use bots!
Look in the mirror before you call anyone else stupid.
https://www.rferl.org/amp/macedonia-fak ... 06884.html
If you are willing to do a deep dive - and since it doesn’t fit into your preconceived conspiracy theories, I know the answer will be no - looking at the Russian misinformation machine based out of Veles would be instructional for you.