How're y'alls retirement accounts doing?

[flockofseagulls104]

Nope. Didn't think so. But you all benefit even though you hate to admit it. Bless your hearts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/11/treasur ... surge.html

[flockofseagulls104]

Consumer confidence is high.

Consumer sentiment on the economy reached its highest value in five months, but still fell behind December 2024 levels as consumers struggle to shake off long-term inflation concerns, a survey released Friday found. Sentiment rose 1.8% in July to an index of 61.8 from June’s 60.7, marking its highest value since February, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers for July. But, compared to the same month's data in 2024, the survey found that consumer sentiment has dropped 6.9%.

Translation: Consumer sentiment is higher than it's been the past few months under Trump but still lower than it was in the last months of the Biden administration.

That's like saying that the Colorado Rockies' record in June was better than in May

https://qz.com/consumer-sentiment-improved-july-umich

All those examples and you pick that one and you can't even dispute it. And then you give us analysis from one of your TDS infected 'experts'.

You always were mostly wrong, but you used to do a little better than this....

[silverscreenselect]

I haven't noticed a big inflation jump in anything. Have you?

U.S. inflation accelerated last month to 2.7%, highest level since February

US consumer prices rise in June as tariff pass-through begins

The main reason prices haven't risen more is because companies stocked up their inventories before tariffs went into effect. As those inventories shrink, companies will have to restock at higher prices.

[mrkelley23]

Time for my six month update. Since it was rightly pointed out that the stock market should be thought of as long-term investment, evaluation should really be done on longer term intervals. Therefore, I shall revisit this thread again in January, and each January until Trump is out of office. Which, the way things are currently trending, may happen before the next update. But I digress.

As I was panicking about the results of last year's election and consulting with my financial advisor, she (yes, she was absolutely a DEI hire*) told me that while the stock market does respond to current events, its strength lay in the fundamentals of the American economy, which were as strong as they'd ever been. As long as inflation remained relatively low, GDP growth was good, consumer confidence stayed relatively high, and unemployment stayed relatively low, then the stock market was the best place to keep my money.

Changing my approach to investment from "aggressive" to "moderately aggressive" was a good compromise for me, both in terms of my age and my fear about the volatility of the economy over the next 4 years. Full disclosure: my account balance is up 5.11% since Jan. 20, which is probably a little lower than it would have been if I hadn't changed. But I'm okay with that. It's an open question, of course, as to whether that could have been even higher without that V-shaped dip and recovery in April, but that question is unanswerable and therefore unproductive.

One thing that concerns me, though, are those market fundamentals that my advisor mentioned. The last time inflation was measured, it appeared to be slightly up rather than down. GDP growth is estimated to be nearly a full point less than last year (that's only an estimate by the Fed, so it could be wrong). The consumer confidence index is still high, but much lower than it was in May. We'll get a new report on that tomorrow, so we'll see. And unemployment, which is the most lagging indicator of all, seemed to be nice and low, but it also appears (stressing the word appears here, because unemployment is best measured about a year in retrospect, not in real-time) that much of the job gains were caused by people getting re-hired by the government, or fired government workers getting new jobs somewhere.



*When I went looking for a new financial advisor after my old one was fired in disgrace (we never got the specifics, but he is still not working in the financial field, even five years later. He was a friend of a friend of the family, and yes, a MAWG) I applied the same strategy I've used before to good effect. If the field I'm researching is dominated by MAWGs, I purposely seek out someone who doesn't fit that mold. My hypothesis is that that person would have to have been smarter and work harder than 90% of the field to have even limited success. My advisor is a first-generation American. Her parents came here from Bangladesh in the 1970s and she was born here, so she's pretty thoroughly Americanized. She has gained two more certifications just in the five years since I hired her. I am very glad I chose her to help manage my money.

[flockofseagulls104]

Therefore, I shall revisit this thread again in January, and each January until Trump is out of office. Which, the way things are currently trending, may happen before the next update.

Really? What, are they going to impeach him again? Clearly, you aren't over your panicking and your TDS is still in full force. And you get a B+ for your virtue signaling.

Maybe you aren't up to date on the latest news, but it looks like Obama and his cabal are very much in trouble the way things are currently trending. I'm skepical if anyone will actually be held accountable, based on past history, but let's revisit this issue in January as well.

[flockofseagulls104]

I haven't noticed a big inflation jump in anything. Have you?

U.S. inflation accelerated last month to 2.7%, highest level since February

US consumer prices rise in June as tariff pass-through begins

The main reason prices haven't risen more is because companies stocked up their inventories before tariffs went into effect. As those inventories shrink, companies will have to restock at higher prices.

I think the main reason prices haven't gone up is that companies do not want to lose their US Market and have absorbed the tariff costs themselves to stay competitive.

[silverscreenselect]

Therefore, I shall revisit this thread again in January, and each January until Trump is out of office. Which, the way things are currently trending, may happen before the next update.

Really? What, are they going to impeach him again?

Trump is not in the best of health.

[elwoodblues]

Maybe you aren't up to date on the latest news, but it looks like Obama and his cabal are very much in trouble the way things are currently trending. I'm skepical if anyone will actually be held accountable, based on past history, but let's revisit this issue in January as well.

I don't think they are actually going to charge Obama with anything because they know he has not done anything. They are saying this for the same reason Trump is saying the Washington football team and the Cleveland baseball team should bring back their old nicknames. He is trying to distract from the Epstein list and trying to win back his base by playing the hits.

[flockofseagulls104]

Therefore, I shall revisit this thread again in January, and each January until Trump is out of office. Which, the way things are currently trending, may happen before the next update.

Really? What, are they going to impeach him again?

Trump is not in the best of health.

Unlike the last administration, this one has reported the health issue and says it is a common condition among people his age. I haven't seen any articles disputing that diagnosis. But I guess your 'news' sources are telling you he's going to die any minute. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. Don't start celebrating yet.

[flockofseagulls104]

I don't think they are actually going to charge Obama with anything because they know he has not done anything.

Hmm. Perhaps, perhaps not. It's good that you know that for certain. If Tulsi would just listen to you, we could all save a lot of time. But that didn't stop your ilk with charging Trump with everything they could dream up, including the kitchen sink. In this case, however, DNI seems to have the receipts.

[Spock]

Mr K>>>"Time for my six month update. Since it was rightly pointed out that the stock market should be thought of as long-term investment, evaluation should really be done on longer term intervals. Therefore, I shall revisit this thread again in January, and each January until Trump is out of office. Which, the way things are currently trending, may happen before the next update."<<<

I really hope that you weren't so blinded by how bad Trump is (in your view) that you lost sight of the fact that the stock market as a long-term investment.

Furthermore, since you started the thread-I don't want regular updates on your return to end when the Trump Presidency ends-it would only be fair to hear out it is doing under a President AOC or whoever as ameans of comparison.

I think quarterly is a reasonable time to look at returns. That is when statements are sent out and companies pay a dividend quarterly etc etc.

[Spock]

Mr K>>>"Time for my six month update. Since it was rightly pointed out that the stock market should be thought of as long-term investment, evaluation should really be done on longer term intervals"<<<

Admittedly, I look at my account at least daily if time permits , but I have a reason for doing so. I actively manage my account and several times a quarter, I have dividends come in that are not directly re-invested in the company that paid them (some of the dividends are directly re-invested, but not all) so I need to buy shares in something with that dividend money.

Oddly enough, by looking at the account fairly often, it builds in a long-term perspective. I think I have become immune to average market movements up to and including 10 % swings as we saw in April or something like that.

IOW-you look at it one day-and "Oh, cool it is up 2% today" and the next "Oh, crap it is down 3% today. Oh, well-do I have any dividend money to invest today?"-"Let's see what it does tomorrow?"

[Spock]

Talk about vertigo inducing swings.

At the end of Q2 2025-June 30, 2025-I was down 8.27% in my coal investments since inception which were made in the March 2025 time frame.

But, coal has had a very good 3 weeks and is now up 13.14% since inception. Jeez-a 20% swing to the good in 3 weeks. This crap is exactly what I love about the stock market,

Admittedly, coal had a very good day yesterday with about a 10% gain across the holdings, but even without that ,July has been good enough,%

FTR-I will not be surprised to see the 10% gain disapppear-but it sure was fun to be holding coal stocks yesterday.