Another MSNBC "First Read" item, on the polls
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:44 am
Apparently the poll I got called about on Sunday is coming out tonight. The emphasis is mine. Is this true?
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*** A tie ballgame: Major news organizations released three new national polls yesterday, and they all signaled the same thing: After the party conventions and VP picks, this presidential race is pretty much tied. The Washington Post/ABC poll had Obama up one point among registered voters (47%-46%). A CBS survey had McCain ahead by two (46%-44%). And CNN had the race deadlocked at 48%-48%. Tonight, our NBC/WSJ poll -- generally considered the gold standard of national surveys -- comes out at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Will it show a similar result? The bad news for Team Obama is that this tied race is occurring in a pro-Democrat political environment, and skittish Democrats -- who haven’t won the White House since 1996 -- are going to wring their hands over any piece of bad news, which is never good for morale. The good news for them: In 2004, John Kerry found himself behind after the GOP convention by a significant margin, and he had to use three strong debate performances just to pull within striking distance. It doesn’t look like that will be the case for Obama and the Democrats this year.
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*** A tie ballgame: Major news organizations released three new national polls yesterday, and they all signaled the same thing: After the party conventions and VP picks, this presidential race is pretty much tied. The Washington Post/ABC poll had Obama up one point among registered voters (47%-46%). A CBS survey had McCain ahead by two (46%-44%). And CNN had the race deadlocked at 48%-48%. Tonight, our NBC/WSJ poll -- generally considered the gold standard of national surveys -- comes out at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Will it show a similar result? The bad news for Team Obama is that this tied race is occurring in a pro-Democrat political environment, and skittish Democrats -- who haven’t won the White House since 1996 -- are going to wring their hands over any piece of bad news, which is never good for morale. The good news for them: In 2004, John Kerry found himself behind after the GOP convention by a significant margin, and he had to use three strong debate performances just to pull within striking distance. It doesn’t look like that will be the case for Obama and the Democrats this year.
