Clusterf**k to the White House -- T-minus 56 days

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NellyLunatic1980
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Clusterf**k to the White House -- T-minus 56 days

#1 Post by NellyLunatic1980 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 6:11 am

New state polls today:

Colorado (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%, McCain 46%

Florida (Rasmussen)
Obama 48%, McCain 48%

Michigan (Public Policy Polling)
Obama 47%, McCain 46%

Ohio (Rasmussen)
McCain 51%, Obama 44%

Pennsylvania (Rasmussen)
Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Virginia (Rasmussen + SurveyUSA)
McCain 49%, Obama 47%

Washington State (SurveyUSA)
Obama 49%, McCain 45%

On Electoral-Vote.com:
--Ohio goes from barely Obama to close McCain
--Virginia goes from tied to barely McCain
--Florida goes from barely McCain to tied

Electroal-Vote.com EV count: Obama 281, McCain 230 (Obama ahead in CO, IA, NV, NM, and ND; FL a pure tie)

When these polls are inserted into Pollster.com's averages:
--Obama's lead in CO goes from 1.8% to 0.8% (45.5-44.7)
--McCain's lead in FL goes from 2.1% to 1.6% (46.5-44.9)
--Obama's lead in MI goes from 5.1% to 3.7% (46-42.3)
--Obama's lead in OH goes from 1.9% to 0.7% (44.6-43.9)
--Obama's lead in PA goes from 6.9% to 6.2% (48.3-42.1)
--Virginia goes from a 1.3% Obama lead to an exact tie (46.4-46.4)
--Obama's lead in Washington goes from 10.6% to 7.1% (49.3-42.2)

Pollster.com's EV count: Obama 296, McCain 229 (Obama ahead in CO, IA, MT, NM, OH; VA a pure tie)

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Bob Juch
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#2 Post by Bob Juch » Tue Sep 09, 2008 6:42 am

That site says Palin has 62% favorability with men, 53% with women.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
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danielh41
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#3 Post by danielh41 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:21 am

These polls don't mean much. Florida and Ohio keep bouncing back and forth between Obama and McCain. It just depends on whatever sample group they happen to pick on any given day. But then again, I never understood what was going on in my graduate level statistics class back in 1992. How I got an A in the class, I'll never know...

The only poll that counts is on election day...

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Weyoun
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#4 Post by Weyoun » Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:28 am

McCain will win. In a year where the theoretical Democrat rolls to an easy win, there is resistance to Obama, and respect for McCain.

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OCDer
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#5 Post by OCDer » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:16 am

You can't guage how things are going by one or two websites, regardless of how unbiased they may be.

One of my many pastimes that involves lists galore is tracking the polls in the individual states ,relying on numerous sources.

The way I see it, it is going to be a long night on November 4th.

Those Obamaphiles who are excited about the strange phenomenon going on in Kusch country, calm down. There hasn't been a major poll in North, South or West Dakota since July. WD being known to you mere mortals as Montana. This is just a mirage.

The way I see it (as if anyone cares) is currently

Obama

222 solid
38 leaning

260 total

McCain

157 solid
40 leaning

197 total

81 Toss up

However, there is a very big BUTT!

Of the 81 tossup electoral votes, only New Hampshires are trending toward Obama.

The 27 representing VA, CO & NV change like underwear, and may till the election. Yet, if the VP candidate does matter at all, the appeal of Palin to the libertarian minded in Colorado & Nevada may move those two states McCain's way.

The remaining 50 votes are already trending Republican.

Add the trending in, and you get

264 Obama
247 McCain

If the above scenario occurs, then we are at

264 Obama
261 McCain

Which of course means, the fate of the free world is in Mini's hands.

sleep well, my friends.
Must! Wash! Hands!

repeat

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Rexer25
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#6 Post by Rexer25 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:18 am

OCDer wrote:
Which of course means, the fate of the free world is in Mini's hands.
So, do we let Rainman or Minime flip the coin to determine the winner?
Enough already. It's my fault! Get over it!

That'll be $10, please.

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MarleysGh0st
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#7 Post by MarleysGh0st » Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:01 am

Rexer25 wrote:
OCDer wrote:
Which of course means, the fate of the free world is in Mini's hands.
So, do we let Rainman or Minime flip the coin to determine the winner?
Erin flips the coin, silly!

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Rexer25
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#8 Post by Rexer25 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:03 am

MarleysGh0st wrote:
Rexer25 wrote:
OCDer wrote:
Which of course means, the fate of the free world is in Mini's hands.
So, do we let Rainman or Minime flip the coin to determine the winner?
Erin flips the coin, silly!
I thought Erin got her dad to do everything...
Enough already. It's my fault! Get over it!

That'll be $10, please.

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ne1410s
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#9 Post by ne1410s » Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:04 am

I say we let the Supreme Court decide. It worked so well the last time...
"When you argue with a fool, there are two fools in the argument."

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