WWTBAM Bored

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll is out, conducted after the Republican convention, and McCain/Palin lead Obama/Biden by 10 points among likely voters, 4 points among all voters.

This is not the same poll as the Gallup daily tracking poll, which is a rolling three-day poll every day until the election. In that poll, McCain leads by three points in yesterday's poll, based on polling from Thursday-Saturday. Rasmussen also has a daily tracking poll, which is now dead even.

Key findings in the USA Today poll are that Republicans are now much more enthusiastic about voting than they were before the convention (ad the Palin selection), and those polled favor Obama on the economy by only 3%, as opposed to 10% before the convention.

One caveat: polls taken immediately after a convention show the greatest bounce for that party. The results typically go down after a few days.

Second caveat: If McCain's boost is due to increased momentum in the Republican base, this might realistically only mean that, on a state-by-state basis, he will win in red states by larger margins than before, so that the electoral vote dynamic remains essentially the same. If, however, it also signifies a shift to McCain among independent voters, than states like OH, FL, MI, and PA will trend more strongly to McCain.

It should be noted that Rasmussen's poll (released at the same time) has the race at 49-46, Obama ahead. But I'll repeat what I said after the poll that had Obama up 50-41: National polls are horses**t.

As soon as I get the new state polls (either today or tomorrow), I'll post the current EV count.

whoopdedo

if the bounce is so big, why dont they have conventions a week before the election?

I suspect McCain slurpers will verify the veracity of this poll and Obama slurpers will suggest how flawed it is.

It gave me chills.

starfish1113 wrote:I suspect McCain slurpers will verify the veracity of this poll and Obama slurpers will suggest how flawed it is.

It gave me chills.

I love the way you used the word slurpers.

And just to confirm that these pollsters don't have the first damn clue when it comes to national polls, CNN has a new national poll today. 48-48 tie.

So there you go. Three nationals polls released today, all say something different. Gallup says it's McCain by 10. Rasmussen says it's Obama by 3. CNN says it's tied. They can't all be correct. At least two of them (possibly all three of them) are--you guessed it!--horses**t.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:And just to confirm that these pollsters don't have the first damn clue when it comes to national polls, CNN has a new national poll today. 48-48 tie.

So there you go. Three nationals polls released today, all say something different. Gallup says it's McCain by 10. Rasmussen says it's Obama by 3. CNN says it's tied. They can't all be correct. At least two of them (possibly all three of them) are--you guessed it!--horses**t.

I am guessing that your "Rasmussen says that it's Obama by 3" is based on a casual poll taken by some friend of yours, maybe Lefty Rasmussen.

Because the actual Rasmussen daily tracking poll says that it is McCain by 1 percent, and McCain enjoys a 3% lead in "nothing is going to change my mind" voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

Appa23 wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:And just to confirm that these pollsters don't have the first damn clue when it comes to national polls, CNN has a new national poll today. 48-48 tie.

So there you go. Three nationals polls released today, all say something different. Gallup says it's McCain by 10. Rasmussen says it's Obama by 3. CNN says it's tied. They can't all be correct. At least two of them (possibly all three of them) are--you guessed it!--horses**t.

I am guessing that your "Rasmussen says that it's Obama by 3" is based on a casual poll taken by some friend of yours, maybe Lefty Rasmussen.

I'd like to see your proof of that.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

Appa23 wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:And just to confirm that these pollsters don't have the first damn clue when it comes to national polls, CNN has a new national poll today. 48-48 tie.

So there you go. Three nationals polls released today, all say something different. Gallup says it's McCain by 10. Rasmussen says it's Obama by 3. CNN says it's tied. They can't all be correct. At least two of them (possibly all three of them) are--you guessed it!--horses**t.

I am guessing that your "Rasmussen says that it's Obama by 3" is based on a casual poll taken by some friend of yours, maybe Lefty Rasmussen.

I'd like to see your proof of that.

Since Appa may have gone to lunch, I found this fairly easily:

http://tinyurl.com/2u693r

silvercamaro wrote:Since Appa may have gone to lunch, I found this fairly easily:

And I see that Appa already posted a link.

silvercamaro wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

Appa23 wrote: I am guessing that your "Rasmussen says that it's Obama by 3" is based on a casual poll taken by some friend of yours, maybe Lefty Rasmussen.

I'd like to see your proof of that.

Since Appa may have gone to lunch, I found this fairly easily:

http://tinyurl.com/2u693r

You completely missed the point of my reply.

Appa made a false accusation that I wrote something based on a nonexistent "casual poll" by a nonexistent "friend". I asked him to prove that I know a Lefty Rasmussen, that I am friends with a Lefty Rasmussen, that a Lefty Rasmussen conducted a casual poll, and that I posted on the Bored the results of a casual poll conducted by a Lefty Rasmussen.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

silvercamaro wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote: I'd like to see your proof of that.

Since Appa may have gone to lunch, I found this fairly easily:

http://tinyurl.com/2u693r

You completely missed the point of my reply.

Appa made a false accusation that I wrote something based on a nonexistent "casual poll" by a nonexistent "friend". I asked him to prove that I know a Lefty Rasmussen, that I am friends with a Lefty Rasmussen, that a Lefty Rasmussen conducted a casual poll, and that I posted on the Bored the results of a casual poll conducted by a Lefty Rasmussen.

While Appa probably has no insight into your list of casual friends who may or may not be conducting casual polls, you are probably in a better position than he to disprove the gist of his assertion, by showing us some legitimate Rasmussen poll today that shows Obama by 3.

peacock2121 wrote:

starfish1113 wrote:I suspect McCain slurpers will verify the veracity of this poll and Obama slurpers will suggest how flawed it is.

It gave me chills.

I love the way you used the word slurpers.

I generally wear mine just before I go to bed.