WWTBAM Bored

Latest state-by-state polls for the 2008 presidential election:

The numbers and states have shifted a lot since my last election post, but Obama still has the required 270 electoral votes. He has 275, McCain has 250, and Virginia's 13 is a pure tossup. Pollster.com's state averages have Obama with over 300 EVs, but I don't have time to calculate them. I'm just going by most recent state polls.

The three states colored blue are "flips" to Obama from Bush '04.

Strong Obama (ahead by 10 or more points) (165 EVs)
California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine (10 points--could move down), New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (10 points--could move down)

Close Obama (ahead by 5-9 points) (85 EVs)
Delaware (50-41), Iowa (46-41), Michigan (47-40), New Jersey (50-41), New Mexico (46-41), Oregon (48-41), Pennsylvania (46-41), Wisconsin (46-41)

Barely Obama (ahead by less than 5 points) (25 EVs)
Indiana (48-47), Minnesota (46-42), New Hampshire (47-43)

Exactly tied (13 EVs)
Virginia (45-45)

Barely McCain (85 EVs)
Colorado (47-45), Florida (48-44), Montana (45-44), Nevada (45-42), North Carolina (49-45), North Dakota (45-42), Ohio (45-43), South Dakota (47-43)

Close McCain (34 EVs)
Alaska (44-39), Georgia (48-39), Missouri (48-41), West Virginia (45-37)

Strong McCain (131 EVs)
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas (10 points--could move down), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi (10 points--could move down), Nebraska (1 EV is a possible tossup), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas (10 points--could move down), Utah, Wyoming

They're showing McCain ads here like crazy, which is unusual. Usually they accept that CT votes Democrat and we get a handful of ads on either side. So even with those stats, the Republicans must think they have a shot...going for the Lieberman followers, maybe.