Oil crash?

[BackInTex]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

[Here's Fanny!]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

They had a thing on what is it called? World News Tonight? (the one with Charles Gibson) last night basically berating people for using so much less gas than the previous year or previous months. Which is causing gas prices to plummet and less gasoline taxes collected. Well, wtf do they expect? At some point people want to get out of the BOHICA line.

They also said that when people realized that they could make the changes, a lot of them will be permanent. So lower gas prices and less taxes collected will continue. Bad people! Go on a trip! In a Lincoln Continental!

Power to the People!

[andrewjackson]

Yeah, I heard the latest stat on the radio this morning.

People in the U.S. drove 10 billion fewer miles in May of 2008 compared to May 2007. And it is predicted that the drop might be bigger in June and July.

And the Highway Trust Fund is expecting a $3 billion shortfall by next year because of it. The federal gas tax is by the gallon not based on price so they don't get any extra money when prices are high but they lose a lot of money when people don't drive.

[etaoin22]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

Up here, the rise of CDN $ and recession in US has whacked the daylights out of many industries with American connection. American tourism in Canada is down by 40% by comparison to pre 9-11. (some of the loss evidently due to other features). Many manufacturing exports are down 100%, with industries closing or moving. What is left that is doing well is commodities, especially oil. If they move downwards at once, it will not be a pretty scenario.

[etaoin22]

Yeah, I heard the latest stat on the radio this morning.

People in the U.S. drove 10 billion fewer miles in May of 2008 compared to May 2007. And it is predicted that the drop might be bigger in June and July.

And the Highway Trust Fund is expecting a $3 billion shortfall by next year because of it. The federal gas tax is by the gallon not based on price so they don't get any extra money when prices are high but they lose a lot of money when people don't drive.

I thought this was simpler issue in Canada; it is not; it is more complex. The GST/PST (Goods and Services Tax/Provincial Sales Tax) varies with price. Provincial and federal excise taxes do not. At this point the contribution of GST/PST and excise taxes are about equal. Whiners often imply that taxes rise linearly with price, and I thought it was so, but it is not. There is an infrastructure fiund from the fedreral government labelled as due to gas tax, but the Feds are on the hook for whatever has been promised, even if conservation would decrease the excise tax income.

[cindy.wellman]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

They had a thing on what is it called? World News Tonight? (the one with Charles Gibson) last night basically berating people for using so much less gas than the previous year or previous months. Which is causing gas prices to plummet and less gasoline taxes collected. Well, wtf do they expect? At some point people want to get out of the BOHICA line.

They also said that when people realized that they could make the changes, a lot of them will be permanent. So lower gas prices and less taxes collected will continue. Bad people! Go on a trip! In a Lincoln Continental!

Power to the People!

I didn't see the WNT, but some news show was on last night as I was busy doing other things and I overheard something similar. It caught my attention because the person (non-anchor person) speaking said something like, "Americans driving less is the absolute worst thing right now for our economy" Straight line thinking might agree with the man, because someone thought that if the price per barrel goes up, people will increase their budgets for gasoline proportionately. How terrible that we didn't cooperate! If gas is $2 a gallon and I spend $50 a week on gas, it isn't changing anything out of my pocketbook to continue to spend $50 per week, and only go as far as the $4 gallon will take me.

[dodgersteve182]

We can hardly call this a "Crash"! Just some profit taking by hedge funds and other institutionaly investors. Looks like Oil is still in a long term bull market.
I'm holding commodity plays in my managed portfolios.

[Jeemie]

We can hardly call this a "Crash"! Just some profit taking by hedge funds and other institutionaly investors. Looks like Oil is still in a long term bull market.
I'm holding commodity plays in my managed portfolios.

Exactly.

Anyone that looks at short-term fluctuations is gonna get burned.

Supply growth still is not keeping up with demand growth for oil, so long-term, the pressure will be upward on prices.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

[TheCalvinator24]

We can hardly call this a "Crash"! Just some profit taking by hedge funds and other institutionaly investors. Looks like Oil is still in a long term bull market.
I'm holding commodity plays in my managed portfolios.

Exactly.

Anyone that looks at short-term fluctuations is gonna get burned.

Supply growth still is not keeping up with demand growth for oil, so long-term, the pressure will be upward on prices.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

I think you're wrong. Perhaps more significant . . . I hope you're wrong.

[dodgersteve182]

Oil has recovered by moving upwards by 2% today! Too early to say "I told you so", but I told you so.

[Sir_Galahad]

Here's what I don't understand about this situation. If oil goes from $120 per barrel to $140, gas at the pump goes from $3.20 to $4.00. Yet, if oil prices go from $140 per barrel to $120 per barrel, gas prices go from $4.00 per gallon to $3.90 per gallon. WTF!! And they say the oil companies aren't gouging our eyes out!!!???

[BackInTex]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

Today, 8/8, Oil is down $3 1/2 to $116.46, its lowest point since April 18th. Anonther 4% from my previous post (10 days).

So 20.5% drop in 28 days from the high that took 112 days to get to from the point we are now. It has dropped 4 times faster than it rose. And we know it rose pretty darn fast.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

I wouldn't be so sure.

[cindy.wellman]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

Today, 8/8, Oil is down $3 1/2 to $116.46, its lowest point since April 18th. Anonther 4% from my previous post (10 days).

So 20.5% drop in 28 days from the high that took 112 days to get to from the point we are now. It has dropped 4 times faster than it rose. And we know it rose pretty darn fast.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

I wouldn't be so sure.

What have the prices per gallon in your area done? Have they gone down proportionately with the 20% decrease in cost per barrel? We were at $4.10/gal right around the 4th of July. We're at $4.05 now. Blech.

[littlebeast13]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

Today, 8/8, Oil is down $3 1/2 to $116.46, its lowest point since April 18th. Anonther 4% from my previous post (10 days).

So 20.5% drop in 28 days from the high that took 112 days to get to from the point we are now. It has dropped 4 times faster than it rose. And we know it rose pretty darn fast.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

I wouldn't be so sure.

What have the prices per gallon in your area done? Have they gone down proportionately with the 20% decrease in cost per barrel? We were at $4.10/gal right around the 4th of July. We're at $4.05 now. Blech.

Prices have dropped a good 30-40 cents here in the past month. $3.75 down the street, $3.57 across the river compared to $4.09/3.95 around the Fourth....

lb13

[BackInTex]

What have the prices per gallon in your area done? Have they gone down proportionately with the 20% decrease in cost per barrel? We were at $4.10/gal right around the 4th of July. We're at $4.05 now. Blech.

The gas by our house was at a high of $3.96/gal a few weeks back. Yesterday it was $3.52. So its dropped about 11%.

However, it went from $3.00 to $3.96 (up 24% Jan to July) while oil went from $96 to $141 (an increase of 46%) so it is not proportional, but about 1/2 of the % increase (and about 1/2 the % decrease).

[Here's Fanny!]

What have the prices per gallon in your area done? Have they gone down proportionately with the 20% decrease in cost per barrel? We were at $4.10/gal right around the 4th of July. We're at $4.05 now. Blech.

Prices have dropped a good 30-40 cents here in the past month. $3.75 down the street, $3.57 across the river compared to $4.09/3.95 around the Fourth....

lb13

I'm more in line with Shortstack. It was 3.99 for a hot minute here, then almost immediately went back down to 3.85-3.87. It's currently 3.79, after dipping to 3.76 for about two hours on Tuesday.

[Jeemie]

Down $3.11 today to $121.62. Lowest point since May 6.

A 17% drop from a high of $146.81 on July 11.

It took it 66 days to go from where it is now to the high and only 18 days to fall back.

The speculators are grabbing a falling knife to try and prevent hugh losses.

I hope they lose some fingers.

Today, 8/8, Oil is down $3 1/2 to $116.46, its lowest point since April 18th. Anonther 4% from my previous post (10 days).

So 20.5% drop in 28 days from the high that took 112 days to get to from the point we are now. It has dropped 4 times faster than it rose. And we know it rose pretty darn fast.

I still say we see $200/barrel before we see $100/barrel.

I wouldn't be so sure.

We'll see.

[silverscreenselect]

Part of the rise in oil prices was due to the natural result of increased demand coupled with a few things that caused a temporary slip in supply. Another part was due to speculators bidding up prices past what they should be based on the "bigger fool" theory (namely, don't worry about paying too much for something because there will be a bigger fool who comes around and pays even more). These speculators are in it for the short term, so when they sold off, the market dropped and, as often happens, the drop goes past where it should for the same reason it rose so quickly.

The long term pressure on oil prices is upward and it's worse in the US because our dollar is losing value against other oil nations' currency. I don't think people are going to go crazy again (although you'll see some more leisure travel). SUV demand will stay low.

The question is what this does to the energy issue as a campaign issue. If gas has levelled off in the low $3's a gallon will both parties be making such an issue out of it or will something else take its place. I have a feeling that we'll hear less of it on the campaign trail after Labor Day when they have new issues to argue over.

[dimmzy]

I'm prepared. I filled my gasoline cans.

[BackInTex]

We'll see.

Oill will be below $100 by the end of the month. Maybe sooner if my Chinese economy theory takes root this coming week.

[BackInTex]

Political unrest in the former Soviet Georgia with attacks on a major pipeline, and oil still drops $2 today to $113.19.

Not long ago his news would have driven oil up $5.

Hmmm.....

[andrewjackson]

BTW, the USD is at a six-month high against the Euro, a seven month high against the Yen, and 21 month high against the Pound.

Is that caused by the oil going down or is oil going down because the dollar is stronger? Both feed on each other.

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

I filled up for $3.95 a gallon yesterday.

[TheConfessor]

I filled up for $2.64/gal today. I was in Denver, in my friend's Chevy Tahoe that uses E85 fuel.

[cindy.wellman]

We're still at........$4.05. I don't mean to sound like I'm complaining, because I'm not. I am actually quite happy that I'm not living in Alaska right now. That's the first time I've ever been happy about that! Things are spendy there.


PS - Christie1111: How much is gas in HI?