Back from the Deal

[Vails]

I heartily encourage any BBs to try out for the new syndicated version of Deal or No Deal--after accounting for eligibility-burning and travel-expense factors, of course. It was a fantastic way to spend a nine-hour workday. Because there's no competition between players, there's nothing but cameraderie and a lot of boisterous rooting going on.

How I fared, I can't say, of course, but I will tell you that, come the fall, you'll get to see plenty of me for all five days of the week that we taped. You who know the rules of the new show know what that most likely means.

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

[MarleysGh0st]

I'll look forward to your appearances. Did you do "The Walk"?

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

The difference is negligible, given how poor the odds are in any case. Since they add one more case holder each day to replace the one selected to play, I suppose 5 in 26 is a better approximation.

Does the person added for Friday's show really have only one shot to be selected before being sent home? Being one of those replacements seems like a particularly bad deal.

[nitrah55]

I'll look forward to your appearances. Did you do "The Walk"?

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

The difference is negligible, given how poor the odds are in any case. Since they add one more case holder each day to replace the one selected to play, I suppose 5 in 26 is a better approximation.

Does the person added for Friday's show really have only one shot to be selected before being sent home? Being one of those replacements seems like a particularly bad deal.

They've been doing basically the same thing with the last contestant picked on TPIR for decades.

[MarleysGh0st]

I'll look forward to your appearances. Did you do "The Walk"?

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

The difference is negligible, given how poor the odds are in any case. Since they add one more case holder each day to replace the one selected to play, I suppose 5 in 26 is a better approximation.

Does the person added for Friday's show really have only one shot to be selected before being sent home? Being one of those replacements seems like a particularly bad deal.

They've been doing basically the same thing with the last contestant picked on TPIR for decades.

True.

Of course, the TPIR contestants are cast out of the studio audience; they haven't made a special trip to LA to be a contestant/caseholder, possibly with another trip there for the audition.

Any indication how they'll handle this for SyndieDoND, vails? They had your info on file from previous auditions for other shows, right? But would other out-of-towners have to make a special trip just for the personality audition?

[hermillion]

So, you had a good time??

Thanks for being the guinea pig, and for keeping us up on what's happening.

[Vails]

So, you had a good time??

Yes! A good time was had by all, and I was certainly one of the all. I really do recommend it. It was fun.

Does the person added for Friday's show really have only one shot to be selected before being sent home? Being one of those replacements seems like a particularly bad deal.

That is correct. On my week, there was this poor guy who traveled all the way out from Michigan (yes, I wasn't the only lunatic in the room), only to get bumped from the starting lineup and then added back in only on the Thursday and Friday shows. What's worse, I think the lucky player on Friday was the one who had been given his original case number.

Any indication how they'll handle this for SyndieDoND, vails? They had your info on file from previous auditions for other shows, right? But would other out-of-towners have to make a special trip just for the personality audition?

They did have my info, and just called me out of the blue--but that was to come and audition. So I had to go out there twice. I KNOW.

[Bob78164]

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

It's 1 - (21/22)^5, or approximately 20.75%. --Bob

[TheConfessor]

That is correct. On my week, there was this poor guy who traveled all the way out from Michigan (yes, I wasn't the only lunatic in the room), only to get bumped from the starting lineup and then added back in only on the Thursday and Friday shows. What's worse, I think the lucky player on Friday was the one who had been given his original case number.

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, this seems like a probable spoiler.

Thanks for the report. I agree that it was probably worth the expense, just based on expected value.

[slam]

I heartily encourage any BBs to try out for the new syndicated version of Deal or No Deal--after accounting for eligibility-burning and travel-expense factors, of course. It was a fantastic way to spend a nine-hour workday. Because there's no competition between players, there's nothing but cameraderie and a lot of boisterous rooting going on.

How I fared, I can't say, of course, but I will tell you that, come the fall, you'll get to see plenty of me for all five days of the week that we taped. You who know the rules of the new show know what that most likely means.

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

Sounds like you had a blast!

As to your probability question, 5 in 22 is 22.73%. But, 1 in 22, five different times is 20.75% (1-(21/22)^5). So, they're close, but the actual chances come out a bit lower. That is unless you are one of the fill-in people in which case your chances are even lower. Maybe you're supposed to factor in your chances of being one of those people, but I don't know the rules of the game well enough to know for sure.

[ulysses5019]

I heartily encourage any BBs to try out for the new syndicated version of Deal or No Deal--after accounting for eligibility-burning and travel-expense factors, of course. It was a fantastic way to spend a nine-hour workday. Because there's no competition between players, there's nothing but cameraderie and a lot of boisterous rooting going on.

How I fared, I can't say, of course, but I will tell you that, come the fall, you'll get to see plenty of me for all five days of the week that we taped. You who know the rules of the new show know what that most likely means.

I had slightly miscalculated the chances a person has on getting to the play the game. It's not 5 in 22; it's 1 in 22, five different times. Not sure what odds that translates to, but it's definitely different than what I had in mind.

Sounds like you had a blast!

As to your probability question, 5 in 22 is 22.73%. But, 1 in 22, five different times is 20.75% (1-(21/22)^5). So, they're close, but the actual chances come out a bit lower. That is unless you are one of the fill-in people in which case your chances are even lower. Maybe you're supposed to factor in your chances of being one of those people, but I don't know the rules of the game well enough to know for sure.

If you're one of the original 22 when play starts on Monday and you are not chosen you return the next day. They replace the player who was randomly chosen with someone from the greenroom. My understanding is that one player competes for the entire half hour. So only five players play the entire week.

[slam]

That sounds like what I was guessing. So, in end in the end they use 26 people of whom 5 actually get to play. Therefore, your chance before knowing if you're one of the people who start the week or fill-in later is 5/26 = 19.23%. If you know that you will be on of the players who start the week, your chance is the aforementioned 20.75%. The 4 fill-ins have substantially lower chances so that the average chance is 19.23%. Of course, if they start with even more than 26 in the green room, chances might drop precipitously.

[slam]

That sounds like what I was guessing. So, in end in the end they use 26 people of whom 5 actually get to play. Therefore, your chance before knowing if you're one of the people who start the week or fill-in later is 5/26 = 19.23%. If you know that you will be on of the players who start the week, your chance is the aforementioned 20.75%. The 4 fill-ins have substantially lower chances so that the average chance is 19.23%. Of course, if they start with even more than 26 in the green room, chances might drop precipitously.

Now that I look up the rules, don't they actually need 27 people for the week? On day 1, 1 person gets to play and 22 hold suitcases. Then they need to substitute in 4 new suitcase holders during the week (of course, the last person substituted in has no chance to play). So, if you are one of the 27 players in the green room (assuming there are no extras around), you have a priori chances of 5/27 = 18.62% to get to actually play.

[TheConfessor]

If you're one of the original 22 when play starts on Monday and you are not chosen you return the next day. They replace the player who was randomly chosen with someone from the greenroom. My understanding is that one player competes for the entire half hour. So only five players play the entire week.

It seems weird that they would always have just one player per episode, regardless of how the game plays out. What if the banker offers ten bucks after the first five minutes and the contestant takes it? Does Howie spend the next 25 minutes doing a tap dance or doing "what if" scenarios? "Okay, let's say you hadn't taken the banker's offer and you chose another case. Which one would you have chosen?"

[ulysses5019]

If you're one of the original 22 when play starts on Monday and you are not chosen you return the next day. They replace the player who was randomly chosen with someone from the greenroom. My understanding is that one player competes for the entire half hour. So only five players play the entire week.

It seems weird that they would always have just one player per episode, regardless of how the game plays out. What if the banker offers ten bucks after the first five minutes and the contestant takes it? Does Howie spend the next 25 minutes doing a tap dance or doing "what if" scenarios? "Okay, let's say you hadn't taken the banker's offer and you chose another case. Which one would you have chosen?"

I hope vails can give us some insight as to how this works. I have the same questions.