Spock wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:48 am
I have been wondering about stuff like this as we have basically only heard Ukrainian propaganda-but the narrative is starting to shift hard that things are not going well for Ukraine.
Just warning those here that might be big Ukraine partisans to be prepared for bad news.
Last night, on NPR a story which I found through channel scanning-they were talking about the war turning against Ukraine.
Well, Spock was half right. Things have taken a major turn in the last day or so, but not against Ukraine.
The Wagner Group, mercenaries that were probably the best Russian fighting force in Ukraine, has rebelled against Putin. They seized Rostov, the tenth largest city in Russia, which is about 60 miles from Ukraine, and helped themselves to a lot of the military hardware stored there. Their column is now moving very rapidly towards Moscow and should arrive by late afternoon our time if they keep going. There has been little ground combat so far, since the Russians don't have that many troops actually inside Russia. But the Wagner Group has shot down multiple helicopters and aircraft. Putin has called Wagner and their leader Prigozhin traitors and called for their arrest. By all accounts, this coup attempt seems to have been very well planned by Wagner. The next question is how many, if any, other Russian forces join Prigozhin, and how bloody this is going to get.
So far, combat in Ukraine seems to be going on pretty much as before, but the loss of Rostov, a major logistics hub, will impact Russian supply chains. The Wagner troops had been rotated out of combat zones (which allowed them to mount their attack more easily). But if regular Russian forces are pulled out or quit fighting in substantial numbers, the Ukrainians could recapture a lot of territory in a hurry. Russia's helicopters have been their most effective weapons against the Ukrainian counteroffensive, so every one shot down in Russia is one less that's available for combat in Ukraine.
Prigozhin is just as big a thug as Putin, so if he wins, Russia won't be returning to democracy any time soon. But he's not a fan of how the war in Ukraine is going and might be more amenable to a peace agreement. And if the fighting between Wagner and regular Russian forces gets bloody, that's going to degrade the war effort substantially.
UPDATE: The Wagner forces have reportedly stopped their advance on Moscow and are returning to their field camps (I'm not sure where those are) in accordance with a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko, one of Putin's international flunkies. The deal apparently involves
some reshuffling of the Russian generals in charge of the Ukraine invasion. Prigozhin going into exile in Belarus. It's uncertain what will happen to the rest of Wagner's forces. Prigozhin better avoid getting close to any high windows in his exile, since his life expectancy now is rather short.