Be Prepared for Bad News Out of Ukraine

[jarnon]

US alerted Russia of Biden's surprise trip to Ukraine hours before he arrived, officials say

On a train for ten hours each way. Most fun he's had in years!

[jarnon]

Biden’s Visit to Kyiv: A Triumph for America, a Stinging Humiliation for Putin

It wasn’t quite the “Mission accomplished” speech George W. Bush prematurely delivered on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003. But U.S. President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to an under-attack Kyiv on Monday was nothing short of a triumph for the United States, NATO and Ukraine, and a stinging humiliation for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

There may not be a clear and decisive end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Any conclusion of hostilities may still be far away, with thousands of casualties between now and then. No one knows what a Russian “spring offensive” might look like, though there are mounting signs that it has already begun – and already stalled and failed.

No one knows what a conceivable Ukrainian counteroffensive might look like or yield, given its new weapons systems and platforms. But a year on from the start of an invasion that was supposed to last 70 hours, precipitate total Ukrainian capitulation and result in a swift Russian occupation and installment of a puppet government in Kyiv, the picture of Biden standing by Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s side was a moment to cherish.

“The results of today’s meeting will be reflected on the battlefield,” Zelenskyy stated.

“One year later, Kyiv stands and Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” Biden said in response. Putin “thought he could outlast us,” he added. “But he’s just been plain wrong.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about U.S. support for Ukraine in the war,” Biden emphasized. He wasn’t necessarily speaking to Ukrainians or voters in Pennsylvania or Georgia: he was speaking directly to Putin. In a Daily Beast op-ed that called it “the ultimate humiliation for Putin – and Trump,” David Rothkopf wrote that Biden joined a great list of U.S. presidents standing up to Russian aggression, and significantly broke from the shameful actions of his predecessor.

Beyond the optics and symbolism, it also carries substantive implications. The United States under Biden has reasserted its uncontested centrality and dominance in the European security arena. NATO has become stronger, with a much clearer mission statement and well-defined raison d’être. Biden pledged $550 million, in addition to the $30 billion in aid already supplied to Ukraine.

More advanced weapons systems – Javelin antitank missiles, HIMARS missile launchers and Leopard 2 tanks – will be supplied in the coming weeks and months. Furthermore, the Americans will again be weighing the possibility of providing Ukraine with fighter jets (possibly from NATO’s F-16 fleet).

Biden was due to speak in Warsaw on Tuesday, days before the invasion’s one-year anniversary this Friday. A president whose formative years in politics included the Cold War and U.S.-Soviet competition and containment will no doubt reiterate the imperative interest of preventing Russia from further aggression.

In Putin’s state of the nation address delivered Tuesday to counter Biden, the Russian president said: “It’s they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it.” He predictably offered up his ultranationalist version of events: how Russia was ambushed into a no-win, no-choice situation, encircled by a decadent West savagely out to destroy Russian values and legitimate geopolitical rights and interests. “There are fascists everywhere in Ukraine and we had to defend ourselves,” he said.

Implying possible escalation, Putin noted that modern weapons make up 91 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad, while pulling back from the existing nuclear arms treaty. He added that all Russian armed forces would possess equipment of the same level of excellence.

From Russia’s perspective, Biden’s visit and commitments to Ukraine is proof and further vindication of its fundamental argument that the Americans are fighting a proxy war – that the U.S. and NATO are in effect waging a direct war against Russia.

This also helps Russians conveniently explain to themselves the colossal military failures. After all, Russia isn’t facing a ragtag Ukraine but a mighty military alliance intent on destroying it. That is, of course, a bogus, prefabricated argument – but that is what dictators do. It is a textbook case of deceitful propaganda.

Domestically, Biden’s claim of bipartisanship is genuine and tangible, reinforced by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who said at the Munich Security Conference last week that “Republican leaders are committed to a strong transatlantic alliance. We are committed to helping Ukraine.”

By making such a clear and unequivocal statement in support of the Ukrainians, McConnell marginalized the large Putin-adoring Trumpist caucus in his party and cast doubt on the half-baked, incoherent reservations expressed by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. More importantly, he allowed Biden to stand in Kyiv and credibly speak of bipartisan support for U.S. policy.

The war isn’t over by any measure, and will exact more blood and devastation. It is clear that Ukraine cannot credibly rely on Western public-opinion support or NATO cohesion to continue indefinitely. It is also obvious that after the expected spring offensives, whatever shape they may take and however they transpire, there will be increased calls for some diplomatic negotiations and a formula to end the war.

Continued American support is guaranteed as long as Biden is president. But advanced arms supplies depend on U.S. intelligence assessments of developments in the theater of operations, of Russian intentions and possible escalation, and the dynamics of the war. Even more importantly, it may well be decided based on the type and quality of Chinese arms supplied to Russia.

That’s all in the near future. On Monday, in Kyiv, for one astonishing moment that was unfathomable a year ago, there was triumph. A triumph for Ukraine and a triumph for America.

[silverscreenselect]

I have been wondering about stuff like this as we have basically only heard Ukrainian propaganda-but the narrative is starting to shift hard that things are not going well for Ukraine.

Just warning those here that might be big Ukraine partisans to be prepared for bad news.

Last night, on NPR a story which I found through channel scanning-they were talking about the war turning against Ukraine.

Well, Spock was half right. Things have taken a major turn in the last day or so, but not against Ukraine.

The Wagner Group, mercenaries that were probably the best Russian fighting force in Ukraine, has rebelled against Putin. They seized Rostov, the tenth largest city in Russia, which is about 60 miles from Ukraine, and helped themselves to a lot of the military hardware stored there. Their column is now moving very rapidly towards Moscow and should arrive by late afternoon our time if they keep going. There has been little ground combat so far, since the Russians don't have that many troops actually inside Russia. But the Wagner Group has shot down multiple helicopters and aircraft. Putin has called Wagner and their leader Prigozhin traitors and called for their arrest. By all accounts, this coup attempt seems to have been very well planned by Wagner. The next question is how many, if any, other Russian forces join Prigozhin, and how bloody this is going to get.

So far, combat in Ukraine seems to be going on pretty much as before, but the loss of Rostov, a major logistics hub, will impact Russian supply chains. The Wagner troops had been rotated out of combat zones (which allowed them to mount their attack more easily). But if regular Russian forces are pulled out or quit fighting in substantial numbers, the Ukrainians could recapture a lot of territory in a hurry. Russia's helicopters have been their most effective weapons against the Ukrainian counteroffensive, so every one shot down in Russia is one less that's available for combat in Ukraine.

Prigozhin is just as big a thug as Putin, so if he wins, Russia won't be returning to democracy any time soon. But he's not a fan of how the war in Ukraine is going and might be more amenable to a peace agreement. And if the fighting between Wagner and regular Russian forces gets bloody, that's going to degrade the war effort substantially.

UPDATE: The Wagner forces have reportedly stopped their advance on Moscow and are returning to their field camps (I'm not sure where those are) in accordance with a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko, one of Putin's international flunkies. The deal apparently involves some reshuffling of the Russian generals in charge of the Ukraine invasion. Prigozhin going into exile in Belarus. It's uncertain what will happen to the rest of Wagner's forces. Prigozhin better avoid getting close to any high windows in his exile, since his life expectancy now is rather short.

[jarnon]

According to Senator Mark Warner, Prigozhin is now at a hotel in Minsk. His room has no windows.

[silverscreenselect]

This sounds like an article from The Onion, but it's real:

Ukraine using cardboard, glue, rubber bands to destroy Russian targets.

Everything is fair in love and war, so goes the famous saying and Ukraine seems to be sticking to it with glue, literally. The Ukrainian army has started using inexpensive Corvo drones made out of cardboard, its parts held together with glue and rubber bands, to do its war bidding. This drone has a flight range of 120 kilometers and has a capability of dropping small explosive devices. These drones have been repurposed to the needs of war since earlier they were used to ferry medicines, food etc. More than 60 of these Corvo drones have been sent by the Ukraine Armed Forces on sorties on the frontline.

These Corvo drones are not conventional, especially its structure which is made entirely of cardboard and rubber bands. Initially developed for transporting and dropping light equipment for soldiers on frontline, these drone are now added with intelligence and surveillance capability to perform reconnaissance missions or drop small explosive devices. The sturdy cardboard is coated with wax that helps prevent the fuselage from collapsing and failing during wet weather. These drones fly itself autonomously with no requirement of operator control. It will use GPS guidance where available but it GPS is jammed, the control software can work out its position from speed and direction where it is moving. The aircraft comes in the form of a cardboard plate a little bigger than a pizza box.

Although the article is several months old, the drones have been used more often in recent weeks and are very effective at avoiding Russian radar and anti-aircraft measures. Within the last week, they damaged or destroyed five Russian jets on the ground at an airfield in Kursk, over 100 miles inside the Russian border. The jets cost up to $40 million. The drones cost $600.



https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 5e0bv.html

[jarnon]

A new weapon developed by Ukraine: combat kayak



It can also be operated remotely, as another type of drone.