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Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:38 pm
by Spock
It is no secret that I like dividend paying stocks and I was musing today about a possible way to game dividends. Not that I plan to necessarily do it-It is more of a thought exercise.

You would only need about 12 or so companies to make it work. You would want to pick companies that pay about 4% or more. This equals 1% per quarter.

1) Buy a stock a day or two before the dividend record date and sell it a day or two after that date so you would only own that stock for a handful of days.
For example, Coca-Cola's date of record was March 14 and they paid the dividend on April 1. You would have owned it from about March 12 to March 16.
Then you sell Coca-Cola and immediately buy another company with a date of record on about March 19.
Rinse and Repeat for about 12 (or more) companies so you cover the quarter.

This results in about a 1% dividend every week equaling about a 50% dividend for the year.

2) This is not market timing or day trading as you would always be invested except for the few seconds while you made the weekly trade.

3) Working hypothesis is that any price movement during the time you own the individual stock is random. Ideally, over time, you would gain a little on stock appreciation plus the 50% dividend.

4) It is beyond my level of interest or capability to see if individual stocks move more than they should during the time of my potential ownership-ie do they go up shortly before the record and down shortly after. Ie-do the hedge funds play this game?

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:45 pm
by Bob78164
Spock wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:38 pm
It is no secret that I like dividend paying stocks and I was musing today about a possible way to game dividends. Not that I plan to necessarily do it-It is more of a thought exercise.

You would only need about 12 or so companies to make it work. You would want to pick companies that pay about 4% or more. This equals 1% per quarter.

1) Buy a stock a day or two before the dividend record date and sell it a day or two after that date so you would only own that stock for a handful of days.
For example, Coca-Cola's date of record was March 14 and they paid the dividend on April 1. You would have owned it from about March 12 to March 16.
Then you sell Coca-Cola and immediately buy another company with a date of record on about March 19.
Rinse and Repeat for about 12 (or more) companies so you cover the quarter.

This results in about a 1% dividend every week equaling about a 50% dividend for the year.

2) This is not market timing or day trading as you would always be invested except for the few seconds while you made the weekly trade.

3) Working hypothesis is that any price movement during the time you own the individual stock is random. Ideally, over time, you would gain a little on stock appreciation plus the 50% dividend.

4) It is beyond my level of interest or capability to see if individual stocks move more than they should during the time of my potential ownership-ie do they go up shortly before the record and down shortly after. Ie-do the hedge funds play this game?
What you're describing is generally called "buying a dividend," and most investors try to avoid that. Here's why.

After the ex-dividend date, stocks typically go down by exactly enough to account for the dividend. So you'll generate a gain taxable as ordinary income, offset (more or less exactly) by a short-term capital loss. The problem, though, is that you can only deduct capital losses up to the amount of capital gains, plus $3000 for the year. So the most likely result is that you'll increase your tax bill without improving your pre-tax financial situation.

It gets worse if you separately hold shares of the companies that you're using to play this game, because then it's possible that the wash sale rule prevents you from claiming the loss at all. --Bob

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:52 pm
by BackInTex
The dividend is baked into the market price. At least among those who know what they are doing.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:57 pm
by BackInTex
Bob78164 wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:45 pm
Spock wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:38 pm
It is no secret that I like dividend paying stocks and I was musing today about a possible way to game dividends. Not that I plan to necessarily do it-It is more of a thought exercise.

You would only need about 12 or so companies to make it work. You would want to pick companies that pay about 4% or more. This equals 1% per quarter.

1) Buy a stock a day or two before the dividend record date and sell it a day or two after that date so you would only own that stock for a handful of days.
For example, Coca-Cola's date of record was March 14 and they paid the dividend on April 1. You would have owned it from about March 12 to March 16.
Then you sell Coca-Cola and immediately buy another company with a date of record on about March 19.
Rinse and Repeat for about 12 (or more) companies so you cover the quarter.

This results in about a 1% dividend every week equaling about a 50% dividend for the year.

2) This is not market timing or day trading as you would always be invested except for the few seconds while you made the weekly trade.

3) Working hypothesis is that any price movement during the time you own the individual stock is random. Ideally, over time, you would gain a little on stock appreciation plus the 50% dividend.

4) It is beyond my level of interest or capability to see if individual stocks move more than they should during the time of my potential ownership-ie do they go up shortly before the record and down shortly after. Ie-do the hedge funds play this game?
What you're describing is generally called "buying a dividend," and most investors try to avoid that. Here's why.

After the ex-dividend date, stocks typically go down by exactly enough to account for the dividend. So you'll generate a gain taxable as ordinary income, offset (more or less exactly) by a short-term capital loss. The problem, though, is that you can only deduct capital losses up to the amount of capital gains, plus $3000 for the year. So the most likely result is that you'll increase your tax bill without improving your pre-tax financial situation.

It gets worse if you separately hold shares of the companies that you're using to play this game, because then it's possible that the wash sale rule prevents you from claiming the loss at all. --Bob
Had to read this twice. Made sense the first time but how do you generate a taxable gain if the stock goes down by the dividend? Seems you’d generate a short term loss and the have dividend income to report. I’m not a tax person so am genuinely interested.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:05 pm
by Bob78164
BackInTex wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:57 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:45 pm
Spock wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:38 pm
It is no secret that I like dividend paying stocks and I was musing today about a possible way to game dividends. Not that I plan to necessarily do it-It is more of a thought exercise.

You would only need about 12 or so companies to make it work. You would want to pick companies that pay about 4% or more. This equals 1% per quarter.

1) Buy a stock a day or two before the dividend record date and sell it a day or two after that date so you would only own that stock for a handful of days.
For example, Coca-Cola's date of record was March 14 and they paid the dividend on April 1. You would have owned it from about March 12 to March 16.
Then you sell Coca-Cola and immediately buy another company with a date of record on about March 19.
Rinse and Repeat for about 12 (or more) companies so you cover the quarter.

This results in about a 1% dividend every week equaling about a 50% dividend for the year.

2) This is not market timing or day trading as you would always be invested except for the few seconds while you made the weekly trade.

3) Working hypothesis is that any price movement during the time you own the individual stock is random. Ideally, over time, you would gain a little on stock appreciation plus the 50% dividend.

4) It is beyond my level of interest or capability to see if individual stocks move more than they should during the time of my potential ownership-ie do they go up shortly before the record and down shortly after. Ie-do the hedge funds play this game?
What you're describing is generally called "buying a dividend," and most investors try to avoid that. Here's why.

After the ex-dividend date, stocks typically go down by exactly enough to account for the dividend. So you'll generate a gain taxable as ordinary income, offset (more or less exactly) by a short-term capital loss. The problem, though, is that you can only deduct capital losses up to the amount of capital gains, plus $3000 for the year. So the most likely result is that you'll increase your tax bill without improving your pre-tax financial situation.

It gets worse if you separately hold shares of the companies that you're using to play this game, because then it's possible that the wash sale rule prevents you from claiming the loss at all. --Bob
Had to read this twice. Made sense the first time but how do you generate a taxable gain if the stock goes down by the dividend? Seems you’d generate a short term loss and the have dividend income to report. I’m not a tax person so am genuinely interested.
I didn't phrase it as cleanly as I might have. The dividend is reported as ordinary income, which may partially be offset by the short-term capital loss. --Bob

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:43 pm
by Spock
Makes sense what others have said.

So, you would obviously want to do it in an IRA holding where taxes aren't an issue.

Also, I am from Missouri on the idea that a stock goes down exactly by the amount of the announced dividend. I doubt there are enough people doing this to pull that off. The "Buy the Dividend" drop sounds good in theory, but I think it would be drowned out in wider stock market moves. if the market has a big up day, the particular stock might not go up as much as other stocks, but it would still likely go up.

One of the stocks from Dad's IRA that would be a candidate for this is Phillips 66. High dividend-relatively minor price movements over a short period.

However, my guess is that on any particular day Phillips is more affected by wider oil market fluctuations than any exact "Buy the Dividend" drop.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:47 pm
by Bob78164
Spock wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:43 pm
Makes sense what others have said.

So, you would obviously want to do it in an IRA holding where taxes aren't an issue.

Also, I am from Missouri on the idea that a stock goes down exactly by the amount of the announced dividend. I doubt there are enough people doing this to pull that off. The "Buy the Dividend" drop sounds good in theory, but I think it would be drowned out in wider stock market moves. if the market has a big up day, the particular stock might not go up as much as other stocks, but it would still likely go up.

One of the stocks from Dad's IRA that would be a candidate for this is Phillips 66. High dividend-relatively minor price movements over a short period.

However, my guess is that on any particular day Phillips is more affected by wider oil market fluctuations than any exact "Buy the Dividend" drop.
Even in an IRA (hell, especially in an IRA) you want to be very careful to avoid triggering wash sale issues. That's because you could end up incurring a loss in the IRA (which does you no good at all from a tax perspective) and a corresponding gain in a taxable account (which you will have to pay taxes on), leaving you worse off than if you'd done nothing. --Bob

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:06 pm
by bazodee
Spock wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:43 pm
Makes sense what others have said.

So, you would obviously want to do it in an IRA holding where taxes aren't an issue.

Also, I am from Missouri on the idea that a stock goes down exactly by the amount of the announced dividend. I doubt there are enough people doing this to pull that off. The "Buy the Dividend" drop sounds good in theory, but I think it would be drowned out in wider stock market moves. if the market has a big up day, the particular stock might not go up as much as other stocks, but it would still likely go up.

One of the stocks from Dad's IRA that would be a candidate for this is Phillips 66. High dividend-relatively minor price movements over a short period.

However, my guess is that on any particular day Phillips is more affected by wider oil market fluctuations than any exact "Buy the Dividend" drop.
The drop in the stock price is instantaneous and usually occurs outside trading hours. By the time you see the next morning's opening price, there have already been orders to buy stacked up that will drive the price up. The amount of the upward pressure will depend on events outside of your control. One might think one can time the market by getting orders in at 9:30am ET, but in fact there are millions of trades in the queue that will be submitted faster than you can blink at.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:37 pm
by Spock
bazodee wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:06 pm
Spock wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:43 pm
Makes sense what others have said.

So, you would obviously want to do it in an IRA holding where taxes aren't an issue.

Also, I am from Missouri on the idea that a stock goes down exactly by the amount of the announced dividend. I doubt there are enough people doing this to pull that off. The "Buy the Dividend" drop sounds good in theory, but I think it would be drowned out in wider stock market moves. if the market has a big up day, the particular stock might not go up as much as other stocks, but it would still likely go up.

One of the stocks from Dad's IRA that would be a candidate for this is Phillips 66. High dividend-relatively minor price movements over a short period.

However, my guess is that on any particular day Phillips is more affected by wider oil market fluctuations than any exact "Buy the Dividend" drop.
The drop in the stock price is instantaneous and usually occurs outside trading hours. By the time you see the next morning's opening price, there have already been orders to buy stacked up that will drive the price up. The amount of the upward pressure will depend on events outside of your control. One might think one can time the market by getting orders in at 9:30am ET, but in fact there are millions of trades in the queue that will be submitted faster than you can blink at.
Actually, that would be ideal and what I would be counting on. By the time I was selling a day or 2 after the date of record, any "Buy the Dividend Drop" would have worked its way through the system.

Another related dividend math topic is that I have often wondered about is if there is an Upward Bias* on the day after dividends are paid as beaucoup shares are bought through dividend repurchase plans.

*"Upward or Downward Bias-I suspect that the best you could detect in dates around the dividend record date and dividend payment dates would be an upward or downward bias compared to other simillar companies. IE Comparing Pfizer and other drug companies. It would not be a straight-up mathematical trade-off

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:23 am
by Spock
Just for Fun-I am going to play with this a little.

One of the stocks I hold for Dad's IRA is Verizon. Without checking any of their relevant dates-that was a stock that crossed my mind as being perfect for this. A high dividend stock with relatively small price movements over the short term.

I looked at it today and the Date of Record is tomorrow. The stock is down a little today; if a lot of people were buying the dividend one would expect the price to be up a little.

Anyway, I had enough cash sitting in the account to buy 3 shares that I will probably sell a couple of days after April 7th.

Note-As I already have Verizon stock and I don't have any other candidates for the game-I will simply not sell these Verizon shares for less than I paid for them. I will just add them to the holding for however long.

However, to be true to the game-From April 9th onward; as soon as I can sell them for what I paid for them or more; I will sell those 3 shares. It looks like I will collect about $1.92 dividend on those 3 shares given the 64 cent dividend per quarter per share. (4.85% Dividend per year)

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:43 am
by Spock
Spock wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:23 am
Just for Fun-I am going to play with this a little.

One of the stocks I hold for Dad's IRA is Verizon. Without checking any of their relevant dates-that was a stock that crossed my mind as being perfect for this. A high dividend stock with relatively small price movements over the short term.

I looked at it today and the Date of Record is tomorrow. The stock is down a little today; if a lot of people were buying the dividend one would expect the price to be up a little.

Anyway, I had enough cash sitting in the account to buy 3 shares that I will probably sell a couple of days after April 7th.

Note-As I already have Verizon stock and I don't have any other candidates for the game-I will simply not sell these Verizon shares for less than I paid for them. I will just add them to the holding for however long.

However, to be true to the game-From April 9th onward; as soon as I can sell them for what I paid for them or more; I will sell those 3 shares. It looks like I will collect about $1.92 dividend on those 3 shares given the 64 cent dividend per quarter per share. (4.85% Dividend per year)
OK, Now I am going to have to start a spreadsheet. I found one that fits right after Verizon. AT&T has an April 13, Date of Record. 4.65% Dividend. I haven't followed AT&T but on the surface it fits the model. High dividend and a (presumably?) relatively stable price over the short term.

OK, so to play the game I have to sell the 3 shares of Verizon in time to be on the books for the AT&T dividend. Looks like I can buy about 6 shares of AT&T with available cash and get about $1.66 dividend.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:15 am
by Spock
Spock wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:43 am
Spock wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:23 am
Just for Fun-I am going to play with this a little.

One of the stocks I hold for Dad's IRA is Verizon. Without checking any of their relevant dates-that was a stock that crossed my mind as being perfect for this. A high dividend stock with relatively small price movements over the short term.

I looked at it today and the Date of Record is tomorrow. The stock is down a little today; if a lot of people were buying the dividend one would expect the price to be up a little.

Anyway, I had enough cash sitting in the account to buy 3 shares that I will probably sell a couple of days after April 7th.

Note-As I already have Verizon stock and I don't have any other candidates for the game-I will simply not sell these Verizon shares for less than I paid for them. I will just add them to the holding for however long.

However, to be true to the game-From April 9th onward; as soon as I can sell them for what I paid for them or more; I will sell those 3 shares. It looks like I will collect about $1.92 dividend on those 3 shares given the 64 cent dividend per quarter per share. (4.85% Dividend per year)
OK, Now I am going to have to start a spreadsheet. I found one that fits right after Verizon. AT&T has an April 13, Date of Record. 4.65% Dividend. I haven't followed AT&T but on the surface it fits the model. High dividend and a (presumably?) relatively stable price over the short term.

OK, so to play the game I have to sell the 3 shares of Verizon in time to be on the books for the AT&T dividend. Looks like I can buy about 6 shares of AT&T with available cash and get about $1.66 dividend.
Just thought of a twist to the game that limits volatility. Since I will be getting more than a 1% dividend on the 3 shares of Verizon, I won't sell those 3 shares for more than a 1% loss; even if I miss AT&T in the cycle.

AT&T's date of record is Wednesday, April 13rd. The Verizon shares would go up for sale on Monday, April 11. On that day, I will hold out for a break-even or gain on the shares. On Tuesday, I would be willing to accept a 1% loss on Verizon to buy the AT&T on that day. I would not want to buy AT&T on the 13th just to make sure you were on the books in time.

I know, a lot of crap to go through for a buck and a half, but it is kind of fun.

Gives my OCD something to do (LOL).

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:32 pm
by Spock
Another twist just dawned on me. Verizon turned around and is up over 1% since I bought this morning.

Since this is an extremely short-term strategy where I am after the 1% dividend per turn; it might work just as well to sell if and when the stock price increases to about a 1% gain during that short period and forego the dividend.

Remember tax strategy is not a factor.

However, I won't sell the 3 shares today because I want to see what happens after the Verizon Date of Record which is tomorrow.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:01 pm
by Bob78164
Spock wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:32 pm
Another twist just dawned on me. Verizon turned around and is up over 1% since I bought this morning.

Since this is an extremely short-term strategy where I am after the 1% dividend per turn; it might work just as well to sell if and when the stock price increases to about a 1% gain during that short period and forego the dividend.

Remember tax strategy is not a factor.

However, I won't sell the 3 shares today because I want to see what happens after the Verizon Date of Record which is tomorrow.
I'm confused. You don't have to own the stock to see what happens to its price. --Bob

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:45 pm
by Spock
Bob78164 wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:01 pm
Spock wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:32 pm
Another twist just dawned on me. Verizon turned around and is up over 1% since I bought this morning.

Since this is an extremely short-term strategy where I am after the 1% dividend per turn; it might work just as well to sell if and when the stock price increases to about a 1% gain during that short period and forego the dividend.

Remember tax strategy is not a factor.

However, I won't sell the 3 shares today because I want to see what happens after the Verizon Date of Record which is tomorrow.
I'm confused. You don't have to own the stock to see what happens to its price. --Bob
I know. But since this is the first turn, I want to have a little skin in the game.

I just had some fun for about the last 3 hours. I built a spreadsheet that has about 30 potential stocks in it for this quarter. As it is a rough draft, some of the dates of record are the same or too close together to do anything with.

However, I don't think there are too many wide gaps-the longest appears to be about a week which is perfect.

I go from Verizon (4/7) to AT&T (4/13) to Colgate-Palmolive (4/20).

I am not happy with Colgate as the annual Dividend is only about 2 1/2 percent-which is the lowest in the spreadsheet.

However, April dates are very hard to find and the next one after Colgate is Clorox on April 26th with a 3.22% Dividend.

I am shooting for 4% (annual) dividend stocks.

OTOH, there are beaucoup options in May and June.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:31 pm
by Spock
Just to see what happens and because I have a little time now to screw around-I placed a sale order for tomorrow (the date of record) that would give me a 2 1/2% gain on the 3 Verizon shares. If it happens to pop tomorrow, I will be happy with that gain and forego the (slightly more than) 1% Dividend.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:57 am
by Spock
I am treating this as an experiment that some might be interested in to see if we can detect anomalous price movements in the stock price around the Date of Record for dividends which is today for Verizon.

Also remember this is an extremely short-term strategy which goes against every inclination I have because I tend to hold stocks for decades.

While it was up yesterday-I had bought early in the morning when it was down.

Purchased Verizon at $52.68. It closed yesterday at about $53.20 which would have given me almost a 1% gain. On future turns, I would probably take that and forego the dividend.

Today, Verizon is currently down about a half percent. However, most stocks that I own are also down-the portfolio is down .89% and most down stocks are down more than Verizon is.

Interestingly, AT&T in the same industry with a record date next week is down about 1 1/2%.

I don't know if you can buy a share today and still get the dividend. IE is the bookkeeping run that good that you are good for the dividend if you buy it on the day of record?

If so-that could be a factor in the upward bias as compared to AT&T.

Obviously, this is only one data point.

As a test run on this turn, I am going to sell the Verizon tomorrow even if I take a loss to see how tight I can run these turns. This will answer 1 question.

Question 1) Can I buy a stock the day before the Date of Record and sell it the day after the Date of record and still get the dividend?

Just realized that I can answer another question today.

Question 2) Can I buy a stock on the Date of Record and sell it the day after and still get the dividend?

Off to buy 1 share of Verizon.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:59 am
by Spock
As to timing.

Just noticed that Verizon's says

"Previous ex-date" is April 7th, 2022.

Whereas

AT&T's says

"Next ex-date is April 13th, 2022."

I don't know at what point Verizon switched from "Next" to "Previous." Something to watch on AT&T and Turn 2.

On May 2 (Date of Payment), We will see as to what point in the day the dividend is allotted. Early or late?

Something to watch on future turns maybe-Don't buy if it says 'Previous."

I may end up dividend-free on the share purchase today.

Oh, well-oart of the experiment and on to Turn 2 and AT&T tomorrow with some lessons learned.

Note: At this time-Verizon is almost even on the day and AT&T is still down over 1%.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:24 pm
by Spock
Just dug into the timing a little more.

Verizon says they go "Ex-Dividend" today and dividends are payable to shareholders of record as of April, 8th.

So that means I will not sell Verizon until Monday or Tuesday.

Because the time would be little crunchy and because AT&T is down today and to keep from getting bored, I put "Turn 2" into effect a few minutes ago with AT&T. It should be in my favor to buy it several days ahead of the Date of Record.

I bought AT&T for $23.86 and because it has a nice dividend and I don't have anything good right away after AT&T, I put an outstanding sale order on for $24.36 which would give me a gain of slightly more than 2%. At that price, I will forego the Dividend on AT&T.

Conversely, because I don't have anything good right away after the AT&T dividend, I would not have to eat a loss on the shares for several days.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:25 pm
by Bob Juch
Do you realize that if your scheme worked, then everyone would be doing it? That would put an end to the loophole.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:17 pm
by Spock
Bob Juch wrote:
Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:25 pm
Do you realize that if your scheme worked, then everyone would be doing it? That would put an end to the loophole.
Yeah, but everybody is not as anal and OCD as me (LOL). I am having a ball.

I made one minor change tonight,

A quick look at the AT&T chart shows that it might tend to make some funky rises towards Dividend time.

Because I am this early in the experiment, I do not want to get washed out from Turn 2 with a quick 2% gain in the morning before I get a chance to see what might be going on with AT&T tomorrow-so I increased my potential sales price from $24.36 to $25.00.

Note #1-AT&T also seems to be at a very low price compared to the last year so a quick jump to $25 is not out of the question.

Note #2-Remember, I am backstopped by the upcoming AT&T dividend so I don't feel bad about playing with the sales price a bit.

Note #3-Verizon gained 11 cents (.21%) today to $52.67 while AT&T dropped 1.25 percent.

Note #4-Because I bought the 4 Verizon shares at different times, I have an average cost of $52.61 so I am currently sitting six cents to the good per share. I think we all expect Verizon to have a downward bias early next week after the Dividend Dates of Records clear.

Note #5-For tomorrow, I also have my Verizon shares listed at a price that would give me a 3% gain just in case something unforeseen happens and they take a nice jump before I get a chance to look at them on Friday Morning.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:04 pm
by Spock
Possible strategy learned today.

I had originally thought that I would use the same money-ie sell Verizon quickly to make the move on AT&T and sell that quickly to make the next move.

However, if I use different money as I did today with AT&T, I might not be forced to sell quickly at a loss following the dividend date. I will have the flexibility to sit on Verizon. I still want to sell quickly, but it won't be a quick sale at a loss immediately after the Dividend date thus avoiding any immediate "Buy the Dividend Drop". I might still sell at a loss, but I can be more choosy and let a couple days go by if I want to.

And I can have a little more flexibility on the front end also on when to start a Turn.

So it is possible, I might start Turn 3 late next week without having yet closed Verizon (Turn 1) or AT&T (Turn 2).

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:09 am
by Spock
Update this morning. I had to retype this as the companies have moved higher since I first looked about 10 minutes ago.

Verizon is getting to a point where I need to watch it pretty close to see if I want to sell today and (probably) forego the dividend. The dividend is 64 cents per share.

Verizon is up .82%. I am 60 cents to the good per share.

AT%T is up 1.43%. I am currently up 21 cents per share.

Over and above the experiment, I am considering making a permanent buy on AT&T. I had never looked at AT&T before, but:

The primary model I have used over time on the IRA is to buy (and hold) high dividend stocks that are near their 52-week (or more) lows and that strategy has worked very well over time.

I have to see if their is something that I want to sell and if I make the buy, I might as well do it now and catch next week's dividend.

The sucky part of the experiment is I have some time to play with it right now. The fields are way to wet to move-but options to play with are so scarce in April whereas May and June are thick with opportunities.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:29 am
by Spock
Over and above the experiment, I just made the afore-mentioned long-term buy on AT&T at $24.03.

I found one stock in the portfolio with a very similar dividend, but because of share accumulation over time through dividend re-investment; it had a relatively large percent of the portfolio so I trimmed it back a little and bought AT&T.

I still own most of the shares I had previous in the company I sold.

Notably, that company has a very volatile share price over the short term so even though it has a high dividend it would not be a candidate for the experiment I am running.

Re: Fun With Dividends-A Thought Exercise

Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 9:02 am
by Spock
I just closed out Turn #1 and Verizon with a 1.38% gain.

I bought the shares of Verizon at an average of $52.61 and sold them for $53.34 with a gain of 73 cents per share. As this is more than the 64 cent dividend I decided to take it and (most likely) forego the dividend.

It will be interesting to see what happens the rest of the day and early next week with Verizon.

Main takeaway:

Remember, I only bought these shares on Tuesday and Wednesday-the day before and the day of-the "Ex-dividend" date-so with one data point-it appears that the upcoming dividend was not yet fully priced in at that point.

Note-Holy crap-Batman

Verizon has gone up another eleven cents in the ten minutes since I sold.