Just for Fun: Lottery Math Question

[Spock]

I was looking at the websites for Powerball and Mega Millions and I am thinking about which one is (marginally) a better chance.

Powerball has the first 5 numbers from 1 to 69 and the PB itself from 1 to 26.

Whereas Mega Millions has the first 5 numbers from 1 to 70 and the Mega Number (or whatever it is called) from 1 to 25.

Without doing the math, I am thinking the odds are marginally better for Powerball because of the 70 factorial (mega millions) versus the 26 factorial (Powerball).

I hadn't bought a lottery ticket for years until Thanksgiving 2020 when I had to make a run to a convenience store and I decided to make a thing of it and I have rarely missed a drawing since (I buy 1 ticket for each drawing so it is no big deal). I had the Spocklette buy my tickets when we were in Africa.

Oddly enough, given the 1 to 26 for the Powerball number and the 1 to 25 for the Mega number, I have hit the Powerball number many more times than I have hit MegaMillions number.

Powerball did screw me up when they added a 3rd drawing a week in August for Monday nights. Prior I had my system of getting to town on Thursday and Sundays. I generally go to town on Thursdays anyway because that is the one day a week I buy the Minneapolis Star Trib because it has the Taste section in it.

[silverscreenselect]

I was looking at the websites for Powerball and Mega Millions and I am thinking about which one is (marginally) a better chance.

Powerball has the first 5 numbers from 1 to 69 and the PB itself from 1 to 26.

Whereas Mega Millions has the first 5 numbers from 1 to 70 and the Mega Number (or whatever it is called) from 1 to 25.

Without doing the math, I am thinking the odds are marginally better for Powerball because of the 70 factorial (mega millions) versus the 26 factorial (Powerball).

You would be correct. The odds of winning Powerball are 1 in 292 million. The odds of winning Mega Millions are 1 in 302 million.

Although I can now legally play the lottery games, I haven't done so since I retired. By the way, the Mega Millions drawings are done here in Atlanta, with John Crow (who's an acquaintance of mine) usually hosting them.

[jaybee]

I read a stat recently that claimed that you have much better odds at dying in a car wreck while driving to buy a lottery ticket than you have at winning Powerball. Not sure if that's true or not but would not be surprised if it is.

[Spock]

I read a stat recently that claimed that you have much better odds at dying in a car wreck while driving to buy a lottery ticket than you have at winning Powerball. Not sure if that's true or not but would not be surprised if it is.

Most likely. Plus since it is 7 miles to my nearest convenience store-if I make a special trip it probably almost costs me more in gas than the tickets cost.

Thursday's trip I used to make anyway since that is the day that I went anyway to buy the Star Trib. Sunday probably went anyway. The one that screws me up is the new Monday night's drawing so I have to get to some town on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Apparently, you can buy for drawings past the next one, but some of the younger workers at my convenience store don't know how to do that.

I do like to buy the tickets (if I think of it) with quarters from the change jar. We have a special quarter bowl.

[BackInTex]

I read a stat recently that claimed that you have much better odds at dying in a car wreck while driving to buy a lottery ticket than you have at winning Powerball. Not sure if that's true or not but would not be surprised if it is.

Most likely. Plus since it is 7 miles to my nearest convenience store-if I make a special trip it probably almost costs me more in gas than the tickets cost.

Thursday's trip I used to make anyway since that is the day that I went anyway to buy the Star Trib. Sunday probably went anyway. The one that screws me up is the new Monday night's drawing so I have to get to some town on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Apparently, you can buy for drawings past the next one, but some of the younger workers at my convenience store don't know how to do that.

I do like to buy the tickets (if I think of it) with quarters from the change jar. We have a special quarter bowl.

If I buy lottery tickets it is for entertainment purposes only. I know I could win so I get to dream a bit of "what if" with a dash of possibility. It's pleasurable, like smoking a cigarette is to a smoker, or playing some VR game and pretending. It is not a financial investment or strategy. I'm OK with burning a few bucks for the endorphins produced as I check the numbers.

[Spock]

I read a stat recently that claimed that you have much better odds at dying in a car wreck while driving to buy a lottery ticket than you have at winning Powerball. Not sure if that's true or not but would not be surprised if it is.

Most likely. Plus since it is 7 miles to my nearest convenience store-if I make a special trip it probably almost costs me more in gas than the tickets cost.

Thursday's trip I used to make anyway since that is the day that I went anyway to buy the Star Trib. Sunday probably went anyway. The one that screws me up is the new Monday night's drawing so I have to get to some town on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Apparently, you can buy for drawings past the next one, but some of the younger workers at my convenience store don't know how to do that.

I do like to buy the tickets (if I think of it) with quarters from the change jar. We have a special quarter bowl.

If I buy lottery tickets it is for entertainment purposes only. I know I could win so I get to dream a bit of "what if" with a dash of possibility. It's pleasurable, like smoking a cigarette is to a smoker, or playing some VR game and pretending. It is not a financial investment or strategy. I'm OK with burning a few bucks for the endorphins produced as I check the numbers.

Yeah, it is obviously merely entertainment. I just got all anal and OCD about it and decided to try and buy one ticket for each drawing. I have contemplated doing a spreadsheet to see how much of the $520 per year I get back. My rough guess is about 10%.

Plus the family jokes are fun. The other day, Mrs. Spock said "Did you get YOUR lottery tickets?" I said "Hey, lady, you labeling them as MY lottery tickets will stand up in a court of law."-LOL.

[silverscreenselect]

I have contemplated doing a spreadsheet to see how much of the $520 per year I get back. My rough guess is about 10%.

It varies from state to state, but on average about 50 to 60% of lottery revenue goes back to the players in winnings. In Georgia, we got the biggest share of ticket sales from scratch off tickets, followed by the big jackpots (Powerball, mega millions) and daily draws (Cash3, Cash 4).

[tlynn78]

I seldom buy scratchers, but dropped $10 on one last night and scored $250
If only I could count on that kind of roi over the long term...

[ShamelessWeasel]

Yeah, it is obviously merely entertainment. I just got all anal and OCD about it and decided to try and buy one ticket for each drawing. I have contemplated doing a spreadsheet to see how much of the $520 per year I get back. My rough guess is about 10%.

I have been running a lottery pool with some coworkers since 2007 which I have tracked via spreadsheet since then. We have won $100 a couple of times. Nothing bigger and many smaller wins. We roll the winnings in to the next buy.

Our payout is 11.34% of what we have paid in.

So you are very close to our lived experience

[Spock]

Yeah, it is obviously merely entertainment. I just got all anal and OCD about it and decided to try and buy one ticket for each drawing. I have contemplated doing a spreadsheet to see how much of the $520 per year I get back. My rough guess is about 10%.

I have been running a lottery pool with some coworkers since 2007 which I have tracked via spreadsheet since then. We have won $100 a couple of times. Nothing bigger and many smaller wins. We roll the winnings in to the next buy.

Our payout is 11.34% of what we have paid in.

So you are very close to our lived experience

Do you buy extra tickets with the winnings with everyone still putting in their normal amount or do you reduce the buy-in for everybody and still buy the same number of total tickets?

[jaybee]

I seldom buy scratchers, but dropped $10 on one last night and scored $250
If only I could count on that kind of roi over the long term...

You were lucky! I've played both scratch offs and regular lottery numbers since TN got the lottery (maybe 15 years ago?). Don't play on any regular schedule - have the same attitude as BiT. But in that time I've won $250 once, a hundred a couple of times and then smaller wins that just got traded in for new tickets.

[tlynn78]

I seldom buy scratchers, but dropped $10 on one last night and scored $250
If only I could count on that kind of roi over the long term...

You were lucky! I've played both scratch offs and regular lottery numbers since TN got the lottery (maybe 15 years ago?). Don't play on any regular schedule - have the same attitude as BiT. But in that time I've won $250 once, a hundred a couple of times and then smaller wins that just got traded in for new tickets.

Oh, I know it was pure luck (chance - whatever) which is why I seldom play the scratchers. If I'm going to use up a one-in-a-(several)-million chance, I want it to be on Powerball.
I figure, I don't drink (much at all) or smoke, so as vices go, a couple lottery tickets a week, when I remember, isn't too bad.

[Spock]

I seldom buy scratchers, but dropped $10 on one last night and scored $250
If only I could count on that kind of roi over the long term...

You were lucky! I've played both scratch offs and regular lottery numbers since TN got the lottery (maybe 15 years ago?). Don't play on any regular schedule - have the same attitude as BiT. But in that time I've won $250 once, a hundred a couple of times and then smaller wins that just got traded in for new tickets.

Oh, I know it was pure luck (chance - whatever) which is why I seldom play the scratchers. If I'm going to use up a one-in-a-(several)-million chance, I want it to be on Powerball.
I figure, I don't drink (much at all) or smoke, so as vices go, a couple lottery tickets a week, when I remember, isn't too bad.

Apparently, she doesn't consider offing her business partners in the wilds of Montana a vice.

[tlynn78]

You were lucky! I've played both scratch offs and regular lottery numbers since TN got the lottery (maybe 15 years ago?). Don't play on any regular schedule - have the same attitude as BiT. But in that time I've won $250 once, a hundred a couple of times and then smaller wins that just got traded in for new tickets.

Oh, I know it was pure luck (chance - whatever) which is why I seldom play the scratchers. If I'm going to use up a one-in-a-(several)-million chance, I want it to be on Powerball.
I figure, I don't drink (much at all) or smoke, so as vices go, a couple lottery tickets a week, when I remember, isn't too bad.

Apparently, she doesn't consider offing her business partners in the wilds of Montana a vice.

LOL! If memory serves, my 'partners' were planning my unaliving.

[jaybee]

Update: As I had picked up two $5 scratch off tickets on my way home today. Both winners!!! $5 on one and $10 on the other. A net win of a whopping $5. We're eatin' beans at the jaybee house tonight!

[Bob Juch]

I won $5,000 on Powerball in the mid-90s. If I go grocery shopping or buy gas, I might buy $20 worth of tickets. However, since I haven't gone grocery shopping in over three years and buy gas about every three months, I don't have many opportunities. I'm way ahead, no matter what.

[tlynn78]

Update: As I had picked up two $5 scratch off tickets on my way home today. Both winners!!! $5 on one and $10 on the other. A net win of a whopping $5. We're eatin' beans at the jaybee house tonight!

WooHOO!

[Estonut]

I won $5,000 on Powerball in the mid-90s. If I go grocery shopping or buy gas, I might buy $20 worth of tickets. However, since I haven't gone grocery shopping in over three years and buy gas about every three months, I don't have many opportunities. I'm way ahead, no matter what.

You missed at least 2 chances:

https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/1 ... oro-valley

https://www.kold.com/2020/08/10/powerba ... unclaimed/

[silverscreenselect]

Oregon man wins $8.9 million from forgotten lottery ticket he bought on Christmas

[ShamelessWeasel]

Do you buy extra tickets with the winnings with everyone still putting in their normal amount or do you reduce the buy-in for everybody and still buy the same number of total tickets?

We reduce the buy in

[Bob Juch]

I won $5,000 on Powerball in the mid-90s. If I go grocery shopping or buy gas, I might buy $20 worth of tickets. However, since I haven't gone grocery shopping in over three years and buy gas about every three months, I don't have many opportunities. I'm way ahead, no matter what.

You missed at least two chances:

https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/1 ... oro-valley

https://www.kold.com/2020/08/10/powerba ... unclaimed/

That's the station where I get gas. There were also two on March 1, 2022, and another at a station nearby in May 2020.