WWTBAM Bored

Today (Friday, Feb. 25), I am experiencing my biggest single day gain ever in my investment portfolio. What is this news telling me?

- is it a classic Wall Street isn't the same as Main Street trope?
- is it that investors just don't give a shit about what's going on in Ukraine?
- is it that investors don't expect to feel effects from the conflict, whereas ordinary Americans might?
- or is it just that the markets have become a casino detached from any sense of reality and investors see the opportunity to make a buck?

The news emanating from Ukraine is pretty grim. One could play out various scenarios about how this could negatively affect the domestic and international economy.

What do you think? (I'm not being rhetorical here). I'm really surprised to see this happening today.
(Posting this about 1pm EST; hoping not to be eating crow by close of markets today!)

We've, the hub and I, have long thought the market is totally artificial,whimsical and inhabited by algorithmic hamsters. It seems it will crash on "inflation worries", then go up today like you mentioned.
I vote casino.

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:13 pm

We've, the hub and I, have long thought the market is totally artificial,whimsical and inhabited by algorithmic hamsters. It seems it will crash on "inflation worries", then go up today like you mentioned.
I vote casino.

Though the casino on steroids is the crypto market

We ain't touching that stuff. But true.

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:58 am

Today (Friday, Feb. 25), I am experiencing my biggest single day gain ever in my investment portfolio. What is this news telling me?

- is it a classic Wall Street isn't the same as Main Street trope?
- is it that investors just don't give a shit about what's going on in Ukraine?
- is it that investors don't expect to feel effects from the conflict, whereas ordinary Americans might?
- or is it just that the markets have become a casino detached from any sense of reality and investors see the opportunity to make a buck?

The news emanating from Ukraine is pretty grim. One could play out various scenarios about how this could negatively affect the domestic and international economy.

What do you think? (I'm not being rhetorical here). I'm really surprised to see this happening today.
(Posting this about 1pm EST; hoping not to be eating crow by close of markets today!)

I think that anyone who pays attention to short-term fluctuations in the market for any reason other than sheer curiosity is a gambler, rather than an investor. I have essentially no interest in how my investments will do tomorrow. I have a great deal of interest in how they'll do ten years from tomorrow.

This is to say, I think there is very little connection between the market's short-term fluctuations and objective reality, so the news you cite tells you nothing (unless you were planning to sell today anyway). There is a considerable connection between the market's long-term movement and objective reality. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:05 pm

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:58 am

Today (Friday, Feb. 25), I am experiencing my biggest single day gain ever in my investment portfolio. What is this news telling me?

- is it a classic Wall Street isn't the same as Main Street trope?
- is it that investors just don't give a shit about what's going on in Ukraine?
- is it that investors don't expect to feel effects from the conflict, whereas ordinary Americans might?
- or is it just that the markets have become a casino detached from any sense of reality and investors see the opportunity to make a buck?

The news emanating from Ukraine is pretty grim. One could play out various scenarios about how this could negatively affect the domestic and international economy.

What do you think? (I'm not being rhetorical here). I'm really surprised to see this happening today.
(Posting this about 1pm EST; hoping not to be eating crow by close of markets today!)

I think that anyone who pays attention to short-term fluctuations in the market for any reason other than sheer curiosity is a gambler, rather than an investor. I have essentially no interest in how my investments will do tomorrow. I have a great deal of interest in how they'll do ten years from tomorrow.

This is to say, I think there is very little connection between the market's short-term fluctuations and objective reality, so the news you cite tells you nothing (unless you were planning to sell today anyway). There is a considerable connection between the market's long-term movement and objective reality. --Bob

I want to think that yours is the correct strategy. Doubt creeps in as the "long-term" is simply the summation of all the "short terms" and the short-terms are making less and less sense to me.

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:32 pm

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:05 pm

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:58 am

Today (Friday, Feb. 25), I am experiencing my biggest single day gain ever in my investment portfolio. What is this news telling me?

- is it a classic Wall Street isn't the same as Main Street trope?
- is it that investors just don't give a shit about what's going on in Ukraine?
- is it that investors don't expect to feel effects from the conflict, whereas ordinary Americans might?
- or is it just that the markets have become a casino detached from any sense of reality and investors see the opportunity to make a buck?

The news emanating from Ukraine is pretty grim. One could play out various scenarios about how this could negatively affect the domestic and international economy.

What do you think? (I'm not being rhetorical here). I'm really surprised to see this happening today.
(Posting this about 1pm EST; hoping not to be eating crow by close of markets today!)

I think that anyone who pays attention to short-term fluctuations in the market for any reason other than sheer curiosity is a gambler, rather than an investor. I have essentially no interest in how my investments will do tomorrow. I have a great deal of interest in how they'll do ten years from tomorrow.

This is to say, I think there is very little connection between the market's short-term fluctuations and objective reality, so the news you cite tells you nothing (unless you were planning to sell today anyway). There is a considerable connection between the market's long-term movement and objective reality. --Bob

I want to think that yours is the correct strategy. Doubt creeps in as the "long-term" is simply the summation of all the "short terms" and the short-terms are making less and less sense to me.

Doubt should creep in as the "long term" relevant to your personal situation becomes shorter. But I've been 100% invested in U.S. stocks for my entire investing career and the next time I sell from one of my investment accounts will be the first time I sell from one of them. I'm guessing that'll be roughly five years from now, as my time horizon to my planned retirement becomes shorter. --Bob

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will. I just have my money in a small handful of mutual funds (Vanguard Primecap and Fidelity Contrafund, if you care, as well as an Index 500 fund) and I check them once in a while to be sure that their long-term averages still meet or exceed the returns I could get from an Index 500 fund. So far, so good. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will. I just have my money in a small handful of mutual funds (Vanguard Primecap and Fidelity Contrafund, if you care, as well as an Index 500 fund) and I check them once in a while to be sure that their long-term averages still meet or exceed the returns I could get from an Index 500 fund. So far, so good. --Bob

When we both retired we moved 401ks to IRAs, etc, with Fidelity. We're 60/40ish, stocks, bonds. We review 1/yr or more often if stuff is weird, big expenditure, etc. They figure in SSec yadayada, and we've been happy so far. We did just put a chunk of change into 3yr annuity, equivalent to distributions for that time. Based on their outlook for next bit of time.
Of course y'all are younger than we are, so.

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:46 pm

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will. I just have my money in a small handful of mutual funds (Vanguard Primecap and Fidelity Contrafund, if you care, as well as an Index 500 fund) and I check them once in a while to be sure that their long-term averages still meet or exceed the returns I could get from an Index 500 fund. So far, so good. --Bob

When we both retired we moved 401ks to IRAs, etc, with Fidelity. We're 60/40ish, stocks, bonds. We review 1/yr or more often if stuff is weird, big expenditure, etc. They figure in SSec yadayada, and we've been happy so far. We did just put a chunk of change into 3yr annuity, equivalent to distributions for that time. Based on their outlook for next bit of time.
Of course y'all are younger than we are, so.

As I get closer to retirement I'll start easing some money out of the market. I'll probably put that money into a ladder of T-bills of varying maturities and then just hold them until maturity. --Bob

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:58 am

Today (Friday, Feb. 25), I am experiencing my biggest single day gain ever in my investment portfolio. What is this news telling me?

- is it a classic Wall Street isn't the same as Main Street trope?
- is it that investors just don't give a shit about what's going on in Ukraine?
- is it that investors don't expect to feel effects from the conflict, whereas ordinary Americans might?
- or is it just that the markets have become a casino detached from any sense of reality and investors see the opportunity to make a buck?

The news emanating from Ukraine is pretty grim. One could play out various scenarios about how this could negatively affect the domestic and international economy.

What do you think? (I'm not being rhetorical here). I'm really surprised to see this happening today.
(Posting this about 1pm EST; hoping not to be eating crow by close of markets today!)

I'd like to know what happened at 10:00 to cause the markets to go up. Bitcoin and other cryptos are up too.

bazodee wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:32 pm

I want to think that yours is the correct strategy. Doubt creeps in as the "long-term" is simply the summation of all the "short terms" and the short-terms are making less and less sense to me.

A woman I worked with who is probably around 50 switched her 401k from a lot of stocks to "safe" investments after the market took a dive after COVID hit. As a result, she missed out on a lot of the rebound. Market timing is almost impossible to get right and statistics have shown that if you miss out on just a few of the best days in the market, you'll severely underperform. And that's what happens with most people. They panic when the market dips and get greedy when it's near a high.

To a large extent, the market prices in expected good or bad news in previous days. The market is down near correction level from what it was at the first of the year and took a big hit on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. I expected Thursday to be bad, based on when I checked early in the day. But ironically, I did better on Thursday than I did today, thanks to the type of stock funds I've invested in. (Still down for the calendar year though.)

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will.

Do you do your own doctoring and lawyering, too?

Estonut wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:19 am

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

Beebs52 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm

Bob# is right. Gotta be in it for the long term. You'll go crazy otherwise. And have a good portfolio mgr

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will.

Do you do your own doctoring and lawyering, too?

My own lawyering, yes. And given the quality of financial advice I've seen disseminated, I'm quite confident that I'm better at protecting my interests than almost anyone else not named Warren Buffett would be. Since I'm perfectly happy with my returns over a 30-year investment career, I see no reason to change. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:25 am

Estonut wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:19 am

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

I've never used one of those. I figure no one is going to care about my money as much as I will.

Do you do your own doctoring and lawyering, too?

My own lawyering, yes. And given the quality of financial advice I've seen disseminated, I'm quite confident that I'm better at protecting my interests than almost anyone else not named Warren Buffett would be. Since I'm perfectly happy with my returns over a 30-year investment career, I see no reason to change. --Bob

One of the biggest jokes I've seen in the various 401ks in which I've been enrolled at various employers is the so-called target date fund. The major mutual fund families have them for every five years based on your projected retirement date. So, you'll see Target 2025, Target 2030, Target 2035, etc. They claim that they periodically rebalance the portfolio as the target date nears to reduce risk (by adding more bonds). At many companies, your default option is one of the Target Date funds. The joke is that when you look at their returns, they always trail the market considerably, so that practically any other choice you make turns out better.

"Portfolio managers" often like to switch things around a lot (a) to show you they're on top of the market and justify their fees, and (b) to generate commissions through churns.

Mrs Spock has her IRA's and 401K's and stuff that we don't look at much, as one would expect.

However, I have mentioned before that I actively manage a portion of my dad's IRA which is in individual stocks. I kind of view this as my baby. I look at it quite often and have built a spreadsheet where I track the dividends on a quarterly basis. For example, I enter the Coca-Cola dividends when they come in.

Most (but not all) of the dividends are automatically re-invested with that particular company.

The other dividends are just held as cash and as they build up, I invest them in another company.

Regarding not panicking at bad times, from the very bottom of the Covid scare (less than 2 years ago) to last Friday-the balance has increased by 140%.

Granted it had dropped quite a bit to that Covid scare bottom but still proves the point.

Spock wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:21 am

Mrs Spock has her IRA's and 401K's and stuff that we don't look at much, as one would expect.

However, I have mentioned before that I actively manage a portion of my dad's IRA which is in individual stocks. I kind of view this as my baby. I look at it quite often and have built a spreadsheet where I track the dividends on a quarterly basis. For example, I enter the Coca-Cola dividends when they come in.

Most (but not all) of the dividends are automatically re-invested with that particular company.

The other dividends are just held as cash and as they build up, I invest them in another company.

Regarding not panicking at bad times, from the very bottom of the Covid scare (less than 2 years ago) to last Friday-the balance has increased by 140%.

Granted it had dropped quite a bit to that Covid scare bottom but still proves the point.

Is that a Roth IRA? Those are good for many people. I make too much to have one now.

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:43 pm

Spock wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:21 am

Mrs Spock has her IRA's and 401K's and stuff that we don't look at much, as one would expect.

However, I have mentioned before that I actively manage a portion of my dad's IRA which is in individual stocks. I kind of view this as my baby. I look at it quite often and have built a spreadsheet where I track the dividends on a quarterly basis. For example, I enter the Coca-Cola dividends when they come in.

Most (but not all) of the dividends are automatically re-invested with that particular company.

The other dividends are just held as cash and as they build up, I invest them in another company.

Regarding not panicking at bad times, from the very bottom of the Covid scare (less than 2 years ago) to last Friday-the balance has increased by 140%.

Granted it had dropped quite a bit to that Covid scare bottom but still proves the point.

Is that a Roth IRA? Those are good for many people. I make too much to have one now.

No, it is not a Roth. I can't remember if Roth was a thing when he started that, but we wanted a traditional IRA for the tax benefits at the time.

Spock wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:52 pm

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:43 pm

Spock wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:21 am

Mrs Spock has her IRA's and 401K's and stuff that we don't look at much, as one would expect.

However, I have mentioned before that I actively manage a portion of my dad's IRA which is in individual stocks. I kind of view this as my baby. I look at it quite often and have built a spreadsheet where I track the dividends on a quarterly basis. For example, I enter the Coca-Cola dividends when they come in.

Most (but not all) of the dividends are automatically re-invested with that particular company.

The other dividends are just held as cash and as they build up, I invest them in another company.

Regarding not panicking at bad times, from the very bottom of the Covid scare (less than 2 years ago) to last Friday-the balance has increased by 140%.

Granted it had dropped quite a bit to that Covid scare bottom but still proves the point.

Is that a Roth IRA? Those are good for many people. I make too much to have one now.

No, it is not a Roth. I can't remember if Roth was a thing when he started that, but we wanted a traditional IRA for the tax benefits at the time.

I love doing the individual stock thing. It is fun to track quarterly dividends, especially as shown today when an abnormally large dividend shows up.

Own Weyerhauser. Until last quarter the normal dividend was between $35 and $40 per quarter. Last quarter it was $138. Today a special dividend of $301.48 was paid.