Dr. Craig Spencer's ER observations
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:54 am
I think his thread speaks for itself. I'm certain that Weyoun could post something similar. --Bob
In response to my "Question to Weyoun" thread:Bob78164 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:54 amI think his thread speaks for itself. I'm certain that Weyoun could post something similar. --Bob
Weyoun made those comments about two weeks ago, but the progress of the disease since then seems to bear him and Dr. Spencer out.Weyoun wrote:So, to actually address the initial question, I think if you are boosted, your chances of serious illness are very low. The vaccine seems to be about 30% less effective, unless you have a booster. That means that you really should get your booster. This is based on what we’re seeing in South Africa. It’s a combination of the vaccine having some effect, plus the disease being seemingly milder.
LOL - they must have some free time on their hands now that 220 MILLION Americans have died from Covid, according to our VP. Fewer patients to treat, enaht.
Because, believe it or not, I don’t want something bad to happen to them. Plus, I’m paid by the hour, not the number of patients I see.
Hell, I am just flattered that an extremely busy physician in the teeth of the Covid fight and with a young family besides is driven to waste some of his precious moments on this earth thinking about little old me.
Again, a misuse of the laws of probability and statistics. Go to a Las Vegas casino and at any moment you'll see a bunch of players winning. But at the end of the day, the casinos turn a tidy profit because the probabilities are in their favor. Of course, "everyone" who doesn't have the shot won't end up in the ICU. But the chances of that are much, much greater than for those who do.Spock wrote: ↑Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:31 amSSS>>>"Of course, the Spocks of this world will continue to play semantic games and misuse probability and statistics in their arguments all the way to the intensive care unit, or worse."<<<<
So, is your operating narrative- everybody who doesn't have the shot ends up in the ICU, or worse?
Also, just curious-what do the long-term trials of the vaccines show about the effect on future fertility for pre-pubescent children?
No need to be flattered. I’ve known you in some form for two decades. Why would I want something bad to happen to you?Spock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:19 pmHell, I am just flattered that an extremely busy physician in the teeth of the Covid fight and with a young family besides is driven to waste some of his precious moments on this earth thinking about little old me.
I wasn't aware that I had another SSS in the offing. But I count this one, given his opportunity cost, wasting time on me as even more special.
That was a kind thing to say. Happy New Year. No sarcasm.Weyoun wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:54 amNo need to be flattered. I’ve known you in some form for two decades. Why would I want something bad to happen to you?Spock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:19 pmHell, I am just flattered that an extremely busy physician in the teeth of the Covid fight and with a young family besides is driven to waste some of his precious moments on this earth thinking about little old me.
I wasn't aware that I had another SSS in the offing. But I count this one, given his opportunity cost, wasting time on me as even more special.
Not being ignored, just interpreted differently. Lots of smart people, even doctors, interpret what's been demonstrated and the probabilities the same as Spock. And as for making political points, almost everything you post is to make a political point.silverscreenselect wrote: ↑Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:10 amBut again, ignore what's been demonstrated and the probabilities in order to make a political point.
It's pretty hard to interpret statistics any other way that say that people who have not been vaccinated are 10 to 20 times more likely to be hospitalized from COVID than those who have.
Too bad for the others on the plane I guess. Oh well, y'all to to where you wanted to be.Bob Juch wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:45 pmI just flew back from Orlando yesterday, and, boy, are my arms tired (along with my whole body).
We had a great week at Walt Disney World until the 29th, when my great-grandson, Lance, decided to go missing. His father had changed his mind about letting him move to Longmont. After he was found, his father conceded. But that's not why I'm writing in this thread.
After my two great-granddaughters returned to Buffalo, my granddaughter Brittany and Lance went to Universal Studios Orlando on the 31st. We did most of the rides there. On the 1st, however, Brittany woke up dry heaving and saying she was burning up. She had a very hot forehead. She took a cold shower which was ineffective. I called the concierge and asked if they could refer a doctor. The number they gave me was for a group. When I called the first time, I was disconnected while in their phone tree. The second time I got a recording saying they couldn't take my call at that time.
I dialed 911, and eventually, they dispatched two EMTs and a fire squad. They found Brittany's blood pressure was abnormally low (~90/~60), but her temperature was then normal. They had her stand up to walk to the ambulance, and she passed out. They had to carry her to a stretcher.
Lance and I got ready to go and grabbed some breakfast pastries, then took a limo that the hotel provided to the hospital. When we got there, we found that we couldn't go in as they didn't let kids under 15 enter, and I couldn't leave him outside unescorted. The security guard gave us a phone number that allowed us to talk to her nurse, who said she was being tested for COVID and that we should call back in half an hour.
When we called later, the nurse said that Brittany had refused a COVID test. Her bloodwork showed she had abnormal chemistry, including severely low vitamins C and D. They were giving her 1.5 liters of fluids and thought that was her primary problem. She later consented to a COVID test which was positive. They admitted her overnight and put her in a room with an older woman who had severe symptoms. I talked to her on her cell phone, and she said she was worried about getting sicker from being in the same room as that woman.
The following day I called her, she said they were waiting on her bloodwork. She called back around noon and said they were discharging her as she seemed to have no COVID symptoms; they thought the positive test was from a previous infection that had been undetected.
We stayed in the hotel the rest of the day and slept in Sunday morning. Brittany wanted to go to the Islands of Adventure park, so we went there and rode all the adult rides. However, when the park closed at 9:00, she didn't feel well, so we went to the hotel for a small dinner instead of eating at a restaurant at CityWalk. She crashed and burned afterward.
Yesterday she wasn't feeling very well but got ready, and we went to the airport and flew to Denver. I later flew to Tucson after a delay and four gate changes. (Also, I will never fly on a CRJ again. They aren't built for people my size.)
I started to have a sore throat on the flights and coughed a bit. This morning my sinuses were running like an open tap until I took a shot of DayQuil, and I have been both sneezing and coughing; I have no fever. So do I have an ordinary cold or COVID? I'm not going to leave the house until I'm well, whatever it is. If I get worse, I'll have a test.
P.S. Both Brittany and Lance are unvaccinated; I had my booster three weeks ago.
Brittany was told she had a false positive and I had no symptoms until after I boarded the flight. We have nothing to feel guilty about. Brittany has no symptoms today. I'm pretty sure I have a simple cold.BackInTex wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:00 pmToo bad for the others on the plane I guess. Oh well, y'all to to where you wanted to be.Bob Juch wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:45 pmI just flew back from Orlando yesterday, and, boy, are my arms tired (along with my whole body).
We had a great week at Walt Disney World until the 29th, when my great-grandson, Lance, decided to go missing. His father had changed his mind about letting him move to Longmont. After he was found, his father conceded. But that's not why I'm writing in this thread.
After my two great-granddaughters returned to Buffalo, my granddaughter Brittany and Lance went to Universal Studios Orlando on the 31st. We did most of the rides there. On the 1st, however, Brittany woke up dry heaving and saying she was burning up. She had a very hot forehead. She took a cold shower which was ineffective. I called the concierge and asked if they could refer a doctor. The number they gave me was for a group. When I called the first time, I was disconnected while in their phone tree. The second time I got a recording saying they couldn't take my call at that time.
I dialed 911, and eventually, they dispatched two EMTs and a fire squad. They found Brittany's blood pressure was abnormally low (~90/~60), but her temperature was then normal. They had her stand up to walk to the ambulance, and she passed out. They had to carry her to a stretcher.
Lance and I got ready to go and grabbed some breakfast pastries, then took a limo that the hotel provided to the hospital. When we got there, we found that we couldn't go in as they didn't let kids under 15 enter, and I couldn't leave him outside unescorted. The security guard gave us a phone number that allowed us to talk to her nurse, who said she was being tested for COVID and that we should call back in half an hour.
When we called later, the nurse said that Brittany had refused a COVID test. Her bloodwork showed she had abnormal chemistry, including severely low vitamins C and D. They were giving her 1.5 liters of fluids and thought that was her primary problem. She later consented to a COVID test which was positive. They admitted her overnight and put her in a room with an older woman who had severe symptoms. I talked to her on her cell phone, and she said she was worried about getting sicker from being in the same room as that woman.
The following day I called her, she said they were waiting on her bloodwork. She called back around noon and said they were discharging her as she seemed to have no COVID symptoms; they thought the positive test was from a previous infection that had been undetected.
We stayed in the hotel the rest of the day and slept in Sunday morning. Brittany wanted to go to the Islands of Adventure park, so we went there and rode all the adult rides. However, when the park closed at 9:00, she didn't feel well, so we went to the hotel for a small dinner instead of eating at a restaurant at CityWalk. She crashed and burned afterward.
Yesterday she wasn't feeling very well but got ready, and we went to the airport and flew to Denver. I later flew to Tucson after a delay and four gate changes. (Also, I will never fly on a CRJ again. They aren't built for people my size.)
I started to have a sore throat on the flights and coughed a bit. This morning my sinuses were running like an open tap until I took a shot of DayQuil, and I have been both sneezing and coughing; I have no fever. So do I have an ordinary cold or COVID? I'm not going to leave the house until I'm well, whatever it is. If I get worse, I'll have a test.
P.S. Both Brittany and Lance are unvaccinated; I had my booster three weeks ago.
Every time I check in for a flight i have to confirm I don't have any symptoms, not have a positive test for x number of days, or been exposed to someone who has. I always answer truthfully. Regardless of what some here might think, I wouldn't risk exposing other on a plane had I experienced what you just described.
It is evident that I have an ordinary cold. Brittany now has no symptoms of anything.Bob Juch wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:50 pmBrittany was told she had a false positive and I had no symptoms until after I boarded the flight. We have nothing to feel guilty about. Brittany has no symptoms today. I'm pretty sure I have a simple cold.BackInTex wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:00 pmToo bad for the others on the plane I guess. Oh well, y'all to to where you wanted to be.Bob Juch wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:45 pmI just flew back from Orlando yesterday, and, boy, are my arms tired (along with my whole body).
We had a great week at Walt Disney World until the 29th, when my great-grandson, Lance, decided to go missing. His father had changed his mind about letting him move to Longmont. After he was found, his father conceded. But that's not why I'm writing in this thread.
After my two great-granddaughters returned to Buffalo, my granddaughter Brittany and Lance went to Universal Studios Orlando on the 31st. We did most of the rides there. On the 1st, however, Brittany woke up dry heaving and saying she was burning up. She had a very hot forehead. She took a cold shower which was ineffective. I called the concierge and asked if they could refer a doctor. The number they gave me was for a group. When I called the first time, I was disconnected while in their phone tree. The second time I got a recording saying they couldn't take my call at that time.
I dialed 911, and eventually, they dispatched two EMTs and a fire squad. They found Brittany's blood pressure was abnormally low (~90/~60), but her temperature was then normal. They had her stand up to walk to the ambulance, and she passed out. They had to carry her to a stretcher.
Lance and I got ready to go and grabbed some breakfast pastries, then took a limo that the hotel provided to the hospital. When we got there, we found that we couldn't go in as they didn't let kids under 15 enter, and I couldn't leave him outside unescorted. The security guard gave us a phone number that allowed us to talk to her nurse, who said she was being tested for COVID and that we should call back in half an hour.
When we called later, the nurse said that Brittany had refused a COVID test. Her bloodwork showed she had abnormal chemistry, including severely low vitamins C and D. They were giving her 1.5 liters of fluids and thought that was her primary problem. She later consented to a COVID test which was positive. They admitted her overnight and put her in a room with an older woman who had severe symptoms. I talked to her on her cell phone, and she said she was worried about getting sicker from being in the same room as that woman.
The following day I called her, she said they were waiting on her bloodwork. She called back around noon and said they were discharging her as she seemed to have no COVID symptoms; they thought the positive test was from a previous infection that had been undetected.
We stayed in the hotel the rest of the day and slept in Sunday morning. Brittany wanted to go to the Islands of Adventure park, so we went there and rode all the adult rides. However, when the park closed at 9:00, she didn't feel well, so we went to the hotel for a small dinner instead of eating at a restaurant at CityWalk. She crashed and burned afterward.
Yesterday she wasn't feeling very well but got ready, and we went to the airport and flew to Denver. I later flew to Tucson after a delay and four gate changes. (Also, I will never fly on a CRJ again. They aren't built for people my size.)
I started to have a sore throat on the flights and coughed a bit. This morning my sinuses were running like an open tap until I took a shot of DayQuil, and I have been both sneezing and coughing; I have no fever. So do I have an ordinary cold or COVID? I'm not going to leave the house until I'm well, whatever it is. If I get worse, I'll have a test.
P.S. Both Brittany and Lance are unvaccinated; I had my booster three weeks ago.
Every time I check in for a flight i have to confirm I don't have any symptoms, not have a positive test for x number of days, or been exposed to someone who has. I always answer truthfully. Regardless of what some here might think, I wouldn't risk exposing other on a plane had I experienced what you just described.
For the gullible, no. Just read that 10 to 20 times and accept it. I have several issues with those statistics. First, any "scientific" statistic that has a range of 100% is not worth paying attention to. They are admitting in the statistic itself the inaccuracy of it. Just like those little cartoons they put out early of two people with no mask, two people one with and one without, and two people both with masks and giving a % chance of spreading the virus. Those were completely made up statistics, probably made by marketing folks in a conference room. No science behind it, at all.silverscreenselect wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pmIt's pretty hard to interpret statistics any other way that say that people who have not been vaccinated are 10 to 20 times more likely to be hospitalized from COVID than those who have.
This is innumerate on so many levels.BackInTex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 pmFor the gullible, no. Just read that 10 to 20 times and accept it. I have several issues with those statistics. First, any "scientific" statistic that has a range of 100% is not worth paying attention to. They are admitting in the statistic itself the inaccuracy of it. Just like those little cartoons they put out early of two people with no mask, two people one with and one without, and two people both with masks and giving a % chance of spreading the virus. Those were completely made up statistics, probably made by marketing folks in a conference room. No science behind it, at all.
With your 10 to 20 times metric above.... What is the numerator and denominator on each side of the equation? What population is included in each of the four? And more importantly, what is the quality of those numbers, because some will be made up as there is no way to know the complete population of folks who contract Covid, let alone segregate them by vaccinated and unvaccinated. I"m sure many included in one or more of the numbers are repeat infections (many by those already vaccinated).
All we know about are those getting tested and those going to the hospital. The control group is completely unknown.
My statement wasn't based on a single study. It was a quick summary of the various studies that I've read. I didn't list the specific criteria for each one, which probably accounts for the differences. The point, as Bob notes, is that every study shows that unvaccinated people are many times more likely to be hospitalized that the vaccinated and boosted.BackInTex wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 pmFor the gullible, no. Just read that 10 to 20 times and accept it. I have several issues with those statistics. First, any "scientific" statistic that has a range of 100% is not worth paying attention to. They are admitting in the statistic itself the inaccuracy of it.
Insurance people do not have a political ax to grind one way or another in regard to COVID issues. They compile statistics on mortality and morbidity and set their rates accordingly. Unlike some people on this Bored who keep claiming that it's only a few elderly people who were already at death's door and just die a couple of months earlier due to COVID. Working age people don't die as frequently as older people. But they are dying at a much greater rate now than they were two years ago.The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.
“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”
Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica. “And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said. “Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”
Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths, Davison said. “What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.” He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims.