A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

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silverscreenselect
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#26 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:25 am

Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
"А у вас негров линчуют"
My thoughts exactly.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#27 Post by tlynn78 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:39 am

silverscreenselect wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:25 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
"А у вас негров линчуют"
My thoughts exactly.
I'm not surprised.
To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. -Thomas Paine

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#28 Post by tlynn78 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:53 am

What about - and work with me here - a position based on evidence?
I'm genuinely curious about something, maybe you have some input.

Numbers vary, but I'd say in general the numbers I've seen reported of people who get Covid but have no (or nearly no) symptoms is said to be around 98%
We're told the vaccination (which DOES NOT prevent COVID, according to the COVID handout I was given at one of our local hospitals) lessens the severity of COVID symptoms.
My question is, how could anyone possibly know that? How could they possibly know that Patient X, vaccinated, has tested positive for COVID but has no symptoms, when they could just as easily have had no symptoms without the vaccine? There is no verifiable method to compare what someone's reaction to the virus would be with the vaccine, as opposed to without.

My husband was hospitalized last month for wonky blood work. After sitting in the ER for several hours, it was determined he would be held overnight to make sure his sodium levels continued to drop. At that point, since he was being admitted, they administered a COVID test. Came back positive. I said, "he has zero symptoms, but he tested positive?" The doc looked me straight in the eyes and said "His high sodium level is due to COVID." So, I said, for NINETEEN years, his spiking sodium has been due to his TBI, but today, today you're telling me it's COVID?
Stammering, he says, well, it could be a false positive...

I 100% guarantee you that if, for some reason we weren't able to get his sodium levels under control and he expired, his death would have been yet another "COVID DEATH" and added to the death of the 100 year-old with co-morbidities who died here recently, OF COVID.
But nah, I'm just crazy, right?
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#29 Post by BackInTex » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 am

Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Use evidence, not whatabouts!
The subject of a "whatabout", any "whatabout", IS evidence. You remind me of the researchers who keep performing an experiment until they get the result they want, then exclude the results of tests that didn't result as they want. That's how we got all the truly dangerous medicines we've had over the years. Evidence that doesn't support your position is still evidence.

BTW, I almost died because another arrogant MD ignored "whatabout" evidence that pointed towards the correct diagnosis (or at least eliminated his diagnosis) rather than the initial diagnosis the MD's gut told him.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#30 Post by Weyoun » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:18 am

tlynn78 wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:53 am
What about - and work with me here - a position based on evidence?
I'm genuinely curious about something, maybe you have some input.

Numbers vary, but I'd say in general the numbers I've seen reported of people who get Covid but have no (or nearly no) symptoms is said to be around 98%
We're told the vaccination (which DOES NOT prevent COVID, according to the COVID handout I was given at one of our local hospitals) lessens the severity of COVID symptoms.
My question is, how could anyone possibly know that? How could they possibly know that Patient X, vaccinated, has tested positive for COVID but has no symptoms, when they could just as easily have had no symptoms without the vaccine? There is no verifiable method to compare what someone's reaction to the virus would be with the vaccine, as opposed to without.

My husband was hospitalized last month for wonky blood work. After sitting in the ER for several hours, it was determined he would be held overnight to make sure his sodium levels continued to drop. At that point, since he was being admitted, they administered a COVID test. Came back positive. I said, "he has zero symptoms, but he tested positive?" The doc looked me straight in the eyes and said "His high sodium level is due to COVID." So, I said, for NINETEEN years, his spiking sodium has been due to his TBI, but today, today you're telling me it's COVID?
Stammering, he says, well, it could be a false positive...

I 100% guarantee you that if, for some reason we weren't able to get his sodium levels under control and he expired, his death would have been yet another "COVID DEATH" and added to the death of the 100 year-old with co-morbidities who died here recently, OF COVID.
But nah, I'm just crazy, right?

Hypernatremia isn’t associated with Covid.

Some doctors know what they are talking about. Others don’t. Much like folks on the internet.

I would argue that the overcounting of Covid deaths due to additional chart diagnoses is outweighed by the number of folks who mysteriously died last year without work up or a cause.

Dying in the hospital is a pretty protracted process these days, so I don’t really for see a situation where your husband would’ve been tagged as a Covid death if it was from hypernatremia.

I have treated hundreds upon hundreds of people with Covid at this point. It is still a large number of people people. When you say that only 2% of the population and get sick, that is still 7 million people.

As to whether or not the vaccine works or not, I will state that I have seen old folks in the past couple of months with breakthrough Covid. I regularly send them home. Did so twice yesterday! I was regularly admitting them to the step down unit or the ICU with a similar story last December.

The folks I do admit tend to be in their 40s and 50s and unvaccinated, or on chemotherapy, or over 85 and vaccinated. In fact, I cannot recall anyone I have admitted since March who was under the age of 60 with Covid, who was vaccinated, save one person, and she was on chemotherapy.

It’s only my anecdotal evidence, but there is a considerable body of it. The vaccine has been wonderful thing.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#31 Post by Weyoun » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:22 am

BackInTex wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Use evidence, not whatabouts!
The subject of a "whatabout", any "whatabout", IS evidence. You remind me of the researchers who keep performing an experiment until they get the result they want, then exclude the results of tests that didn't result as they want. That's how we got all the truly dangerous medicines we've had over the years. Evidence that doesn't support your position is still evidence.

BTW, I almost died because another arrogant MD ignored "whatabout" evidence that pointed towards the correct diagnosis (or at least eliminated his diagnosis) rather than the initial diagnosis the MD's gut told him.
I like how you think arrogant is great insult.

I consider arrogance to be ignoring evidence and taking a position based on your personal politics.

Anyway, I am waiting for you to prove to me where I am wrong.

Until then you are hot air.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#32 Post by Bob78164 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:26 am

tlynn78 wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:53 am
I'm genuinely curious about something, maybe you have some input.

Numbers vary, but I'd say in general the numbers I've seen reported of people who get Covid but have no (or nearly no) symptoms is said to be around 98%
We're told the vaccination (which DOES NOT prevent COVID, according to the COVID handout I was given at one of our local hospitals) lessens the severity of COVID symptoms.
My question is, how could anyone possibly know that?
Your number on asymptomatic infections is way too high, but that's irrelevant to the analysis.

The easiest way to know that the vaccine is effective at reducing severity is statistics. A much larger percentage of people who aren't vaccinated end up in the hospital than people who are vaccinated. A much larger percentage of people who aren't vaccinated end up in the morgue from COVID than people who are vaccinated. In California, those ratios are 11.9:1 and 16.5:1, respectively.

So it may be true that for any individual patient you can't be sure that the lack of symptoms is due to the vaccine, just as you can't be sure that any particular weather event is a result of climate change. But there's a reason we're having many more hurricanes, and more severe ones, than we used to have, and there's a reason far fewer of the vaccinated are being hospitalized or dying. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#33 Post by tlynn78 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:45 am

Some doctors know what they are talking about. Others don’t. Much like folks on the internet.

Something we can agree on.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#34 Post by SportsFan68 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:18 am

BackInTex wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Use evidence, not whatabouts!
The subject of a "whatabout", any "whatabout", IS evidence. You remind me of the researchers who keep performing an experiment until they get the result they want, then exclude the results of tests that didn't result as they want. That's how we got all the truly dangerous medicines we've had over the years. Evidence that doesn't support your position is still evidence.

BTW, I almost died because another arrogant MD ignored "whatabout" evidence that pointed towards the correct diagnosis (or at least eliminated his diagnosis) rather than the initial diagnosis the MD's gut told him.
SSS wrote:
What you conveniently ignore every single time this topic comes up
JMHO, I believe that SSS and BiT are making the same point here: People can't, or won't, admit that they're wrong. I cringe every time I think of Trump drawing that line on a hurricane map. I believe that every Trumper had it confirmed for themselves all over again -- following Trump means never having to change your thinking, adjust your expectations, admit that your behavior is part of the problem.

I googled never admit wrong and found the article below. Obviously I can't state that it applies to people conveniently ignoring an obvious benefit of masking or BiT's doc. I do think it applies to Trump.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... were-wrong
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#35 Post by kroxquo » Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:38 am

Spock wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:04 am
Weyoun>>>"
It’s not a rational choice. The folks who oppose it don’t actually understand medicine or statistics or anything ancillary. It’s an emotional response, and a sense of feeling justified by telling someone else who is suggesting something that they’re wrong and that you cannot be controlled."<<<<

I submit that it is not a rational choice for parents to scare the living shit out of their young children for a disease that basically does not affect the young. I submit that such parents do not understand medicine or statistics or anything ancillary and may, in fact, be mentally ill.

The parents who terrify the shit out of their young children are simply having an emotional response.
The same could be said about gun ownership. People who convince their children or anyone else that they need a gun (or multiples thereof) for protection from the evils of society are simply having an emotional response to a perceived threat when the reality is that science and statistics show that a gun is far more likely to be involved in an accident or suicide than in a case of self-defense. I do not own a gun (apart from an1802-flintlock pistol with no flint in it), and have never lived in a household where a gun was present and yet I don't live in fear of society as a whole. Fear is an emotional response and the real emotion at play in the mask debate is the fear of loss of control. And until we get control of this disease through the use of what science tells us is effective, that fear will only spread.
You live and learn. Or at least you live. - Douglas Adams

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#36 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:42 am

Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:18 am
The folks I do admit tend to be in their 40s and 50s and unvaccinated, or on chemotherapy, or over 85 and vaccinated. In fact, I cannot recall anyone I have admitted since March who was under the age of 60 with Covid, who was vaccinated, save one person, and she was on chemotherapy.
A question for Weyoun.

One of the things that has worried me about COVID is the possibility of people developing long-term ailments. I've read of people getting kidney ailments months after contracting COVID and I would think that having the disease, no matter how mild or asymptomatic, isn't good for your lungs. We're less than two full years into this pandemic, so there isn't any long-term data available.

Do you think there's a significant risk of markedly higher kidney, lung, and other ailments several years down the road? Could this be similar to what we experienced a century ago when people who worked around radioactive materials wound up paying the price years later?
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#37 Post by Spock » Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:36 pm

Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Btw the "А у вас негров линчуют" approach used by the anti-vaxxer crowd is so lame. Use evidence, not whatabouts!
So, just to be clear, is it considered "Whataboutism" to note the inconvenient truth that the median age of death for Covid is well into the 80's?

Gee, the dumb farmer mentioned a statistical term and is well aware what "median" means.

Let's not pretend that Doctors are infallible. I was thinking yesterday (using my parents as an example) about the countless times they have been prescribed a particular medicine at a particular dosage and it just did not work for them. The drug or the dosage had to be changed-maybe many times to get it right.

Yet somehow-these vaccines-developed at "Warp Speed" in a few months under President Trump are exactly the right medicine and dosage for billions of people.

BTW-Weyoun

Are you keeping an eye on "All Deaths and All Death Causes" in highly vaccinated countries and areas?

If an inordinate number of heart attacks and strokes and so forth start to show up over time-it could be the vaccines having an affect.

This is obviously a long-term thing to keep an eye on.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#38 Post by Spock » Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:30 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Use evidence, not whatabouts!
The subject of a "whatabout", any "whatabout", IS evidence. You remind me of the researchers who keep performing an experiment until they get the result they want, then exclude the results of tests that didn't result as they want. That's how we got all the truly dangerous medicines we've had over the years. Evidence that doesn't support your position is still evidence.

BTW, I almost died because another arrogant MD ignored "whatabout" evidence that pointed towards the correct diagnosis (or at least eliminated his diagnosis) rather than the initial diagnosis the MD's gut told him.
Those who cry "Whataboutism" are using a very weak argument in my book. They are pretending that history started this morning and that there is no bigger picture to consider.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#39 Post by BackInTex » Thu Nov 18, 2021 3:26 pm

Spock wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:30 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Use evidence, not whatabouts!
The subject of a "whatabout", any "whatabout", IS evidence. You remind me of the researchers who keep performing an experiment until they get the result they want, then exclude the results of tests that didn't result as they want. That's how we got all the truly dangerous medicines we've had over the years. Evidence that doesn't support your position is still evidence.

BTW, I almost died because another arrogant MD ignored "whatabout" evidence that pointed towards the correct diagnosis (or at least eliminated his diagnosis) rather than the initial diagnosis the MD's gut told him.
Those who cry "Whataboutism" are using a very weak argument in my book. They are pretending that history started this morning and that there is no bigger picture to consider.
It's not a very weak argument, it is an absolute refusal to answer a qualifying question asked of them, usually I think, because is has them contradicting themselves. However in other cases, such as the good doctor here, I feel it's what I said in my response to him that he/they are simply ignoring evidence that is contrary to their position. Rather than refer to them as "whatabouts" they should stand by the supposedly statistical advantage their positions have (in their opinions). Because that's all they have, statistical results. It's all the other side has as well, though, their side may have the advantage of credibility by better documentation of those statistics (for those trusting of the sources like the WHO or CDC.)
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#40 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Nov 18, 2021 3:37 pm

Spock wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:36 pm
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Btw the "А у вас негров линчуют" approach used by the anti-vaxxer crowd is so lame. Use evidence, not whatabouts!
So, just to be clear, is it considered "Whataboutism" to note the inconvenient truth that the median age of death for Covid is well into the 80's?

Gee, the dumb farmer mentioned a statistical term and is well aware what "median" means.
And the median age of death of everyone in this country is well into the 70s. The last time you trotted out this argument, I found that the median age of COVID death was about two years higher than of all deaths. So, it's slightly higher but not significantly so. And that was before the delta spike, which, as Weyoun has noted and statistics back him up, is striking primarily unvaccinated people in their 40s and 50s. The average COVID death deprives the victim of over 14 expected years of life, and that figure was based on statistics before the Delta variant became widespread.

And the fact that we have three different vaccines from three different manufacturers in the US, who worked independently, should bolster confidence in the results.

You should be very proud of yourself that you know enough to misuse statistics to make your erroneous point.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#41 Post by Weyoun » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:10 pm

Work update today

Only four so far!

Early 60s - going to ICU
Late 50s - admitted
Under 5 - going home
Mid 50s - going home

Still half a day to go

Seniors (>70) are funny. Most got the vaccine. In part because generationally they trust doctors more. In part because they know the reaper is sitting there waiting for them.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#42 Post by Weyoun » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:17 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:42 am
Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:18 am
The folks I do admit tend to be in their 40s and 50s and unvaccinated, or on chemotherapy, or over 85 and vaccinated. In fact, I cannot recall anyone I have admitted since March who was under the age of 60 with Covid, who was vaccinated, save one person, and she was on chemotherapy.
A question for Weyoun.

One of the things that has worried me about COVID is the possibility of people developing long-term ailments. I've read of people getting kidney ailments months after contracting COVID and I would think that having the disease, no matter how mild or asymptomatic, isn't good for your lungs. We're less than two full years into this pandemic, so there isn't any long-term data available.

Do you think there's a significant risk of markedly higher kidney, lung, and other ailments several years down the road? Could this be similar to what we experienced a century ago when people who worked around radioactive materials wound up paying the price years later?
Pulmonary issues, sure. Damage to lung that causes scarring won’t necessarily heal.

I feel like the renal issues and these other concerns tend to come from being in the ICU and being systematically ill.

I don’t think I’ve seen a person who was mildly ill with Covid who developed long term renal dysfunction.

I did see one person who got severe renal dysfunction after remdesivir…

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#43 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:56 pm

Weyoun wrote:
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 am
Btw the "А у вас негров линчуют" approach used by the anti-vaxxer crowd is so lame. Use evidence, not whatabouts!
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#44 Post by tlynn78 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:37 am

The problem with statistics is they're only as good as input. Garbage in, garbage out, if you will. My husband was not admitted for any reason related to Covid. He received zero treatment for Covid. But you can be damn sure he showed up in the county's "Covid hospitalizations" statistics.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#45 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:32 am

tlynn78 wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:37 am
The problem with statistics is they're only as good as input. Garbage in, garbage out, if you will. My husband was not admitted for any reason related to Covid. He received zero treatment for Covid. But you can be damn sure he showed up in the county's "Covid hospitalizations" statistics.
The COVID hospitalization rate is for patients hospitalized "with COVID," not "for COVID." It does include people who have mild or asymptomatic cases and are hospitalized for other reasons. This isn't "garbage in, garbage out." It's an objective measure.

The claim about co-morbidities is also flawed. Most people in this country have one co-morbidity or another. And many of them live for decades with those co-morbidities. People who get to be 100 years old obviously won't live for decades, but the life expectancy of a 100 year old woman is about three years. She may have had co-morbidities, but she had lived with them to get to be 100 before COVID.

This study (done before the Delta variant) shows that COVID cost the US (as of the end of March 2021) over nine million aggregate years of life expectancy. Over half of those lost years were for people aged 25-64 (fewer of them died, but they would have lived longer). Each person who died lost out on an average of 12 years of life, and over one-third of them would have had normal or better-than-normal life expectancy. And these figures were BEFORE the delta variant. So COVID isn't just something that's sending octogenarians to the grave a couple of months early.

https://www.axios.com/pandemic-covid-19 ... 9a2ee.html
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#46 Post by Weyoun » Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:09 pm

tlynn78 wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:37 am
The problem with statistics is they're only as good as input. Garbage in, garbage out, if you will. My husband was not admitted for any reason related to Covid. He received zero treatment for Covid. But you can be damn sure he showed up in the county's "Covid hospitalizations" statistics.
That seems like supposition.

However most hospitals test admits for Covid for infection control reasons. I think that’s pretty understandable.

You seem to be suggesting a lot of the numbers are inflated. But you can be damn sure they are not.

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#47 Post by tlynn78 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm

Weyoun wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:09 pm
tlynn78 wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:37 am
The problem with statistics is they're only as good as input. Garbage in, garbage out, if you will. My husband was not admitted for any reason related to Covid. He received zero treatment for Covid. But you can be damn sure he showed up in the county's "Covid hospitalizations" statistics.
That seems like supposition.

However most hospitals test admits for Covid for infection control reasons. I think that’s pretty understandable.

You seem to be suggesting a lot of the numbers are inflated. But you can be damn sure they are not.

LOL - okay.
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#48 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:42 pm

My neurosurgeon told me hospital covid numbers are wonky since they do get paid more per case. But, hey, he's only a doctor.
Well, then

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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#49 Post by tlynn78 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:51 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:42 pm
My neurosurgeon told me hospital covid numbers are wonky since they do get paid more per case. But, hey, he's only a doctor.
Girl, you just be still. facts now = "supposition." Dontcha know?
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Re: A Sign of the Times -- Unfortunately

#50 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:06 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:42 pm
My neurosurgeon told me hospital covid numbers are wonky since they do get paid more per case. But, hey, he's only a doctor.
He's a doctor who's seeing his hospitals fill with COVID patients. As in patients being treated for COVID and dying from it, not merely patients who test positive after being admitted for a different reason. Just like thousands of other doctors across the country whose eyewitness testimony you're ignoring.

Y'all need to learn the concept of error bars. I could believe (with adequate proof, which I haven't seen) that measurement errors mean that California's ratios are off by a bit. But there's no way that the measured numbers are off by so much that California's unvaccinated-to-vaccinated hospitalization and death ratios are remotely close to 1:1. And at least according to the State's Web site, they are measuring people being treated for COVID, not merely people in the hospital for other reasons who test positive. --Bob
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