Afganistan

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Bob Juch
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Afganistan

#1 Post by Bob Juch » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:44 am

Since the intelligence agencies thread has been hijacked to discuss the so-called audit of the Arizona election, I've started this one.
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Re: Afganistan

#2 Post by Bob Juch » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:50 am

Opinion: We lost the war in Afghanistan long ago

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... -long-ago/

Opinion by Fareed Zakaria

As we watch the tragedy unfolding in Afghanistan, let us first dispense with the fantasy that the United States was maintaining the peace there with just a few thousand troops and that this situation could have been managed with this small commitment. For the past couple of years, it looked that way to Americans because Washington had made a deal with the Taliban and, as a result, the Taliban was deliberately not attacking U.S. and coalition forces.

For the Afghans themselves, the war was intensifying. In the summer of 2019, the Afghan Army and police forces suffered their worst casualties in the two decades of fighting. It was also the worst period for Afghan civilian casualties in a decade. In 2018, when the United States had four times as many troops as this year, the fighting was so brutal that 282,000 Afghan civilians were displaced from their homes in the countryside. Frustration with the Afghan government and its U.S. patrons was rising. A U.S. government survey done that year showed that Afghan support for U.S. troops was at 55 percent, down from 90 percent a decade earlier.

You have heard people suggest that the withdrawal should have been a year or two later. Consider this news report in the Guardian in 2016: “Afghan Forces Lose Ground to Taliban Despite Delayed US Troop Withdrawal.” The story pointed out that the U.S. military had persuaded Barack Obama to delay the troop withdrawals he had already delayed a year earlier, but despite having robust U.S. forces and significant air power, the central government’s control dropped to only about 65 percent of the country’s districts.

Some of the data I have cited comes from a powerful new book, “The American War in Afghanistan,” by Carter Malkasian, who served as a civilian officer in Helmand province and rose to become senior advisor to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Drawing his conclusions from the book in a Politico essay, he begins by noting, “there can be little doubt that we lost the war.” The United States spent 20 years, $2 trillion, commanded at their peak 130,000 coalition troops, built up an Afghan security force of 300,000 (at least on paper), and used the world’s most sophisticated and lethal air power. Still, it was unable to defeat an ill-equipped Taliban force of perhaps 75,000. Why?

Malkasian tries to answer the question, which he admits has puzzled him for the 12 years since he became engaged with Afghanistan and watched “in battle after battle, numerically superior and better-supplied soldiers … being defeated by poorly resourced and unexceptionally led Taliban.” In the past few weeks, the most extraordinary sight has been to see how little the Afghan army and police have fought back, often melting away at the sight of the invading Taliban force. Malkasian’s basic answer comes from a Taliban scholar he met in Kandahar in 2019. “The Taliban fight for belief, for janat (heaven) and ghazi (killing infidels). … The army and police fight for money.”

To be sure, Afghan soldiers were also unable or unwilling to turn back the Taliban advance because they were not getting the supplies and backup they needed from their leaders. That’s not surprising given the many problems with the Afghan government. While democratically elected, it lacked broad support. In the 2019 election, just over 1.8 million people voted in a country with a population of 39 million. Corruption was endemic and billions of dollars of U.S. aid, sloshed around carelessly, made it much worse. The government never truly incorporated the rural Pashtun community, from which the Taliban draws its greatest strength.

But above all, that government’s legitimacy was crippled because it survived only thanks to the support of a foreign power. Afghan identity is closely tied to resistance against foreign invasion, particularly the invasion of infidels. (Afghan history glorifies the century-long struggle against the British and the jihad against the godless Soviet Union.) It is easy to use these tropes to mobilize nationalism and religious devotion, which powerfully fuel the will to fight and die. The Ashraf Ghani government had no countervailing narrative of equal intensity to inspire its troops.

The United States had been watching the Taliban gain ground in Afghanistan for years now. It is rich and powerful enough to have been able to mask that reality through a steady stream of counter-attacks and air, missile and drone strikes. But none of that changed the fact that, despite all its efforts, it had not been able to achieve victory — it could not defeat the Taliban. Could it have withdrawn better, more slowly, in a different season, after more negotiations? Certainly. This withdrawal has been poorly planned and executed. But the naked truth is this: There is no elegant way to lose a war.

This piece is drawn from Fareed Zakaria’s commentary on his CNN show, “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”
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Re: Afganistan

#3 Post by Spock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:42 pm

In the "Yeah, I am sure they will get right on that" department.

The State Department is calling for the Taliban to include women in their gov't.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/anthon ... l-of-kabul

The Taliban is all "We have defeated a great power" and in response all we can say is-"Diversity is your strength."

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Re: Afganistan

#4 Post by Spock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:28 pm

I think a discussion of Strategy/Operations/Tactics might be called for.

1) Strategy-The decision to leave Afghanistan.

At this point, very few people disagree with the strategic decision to leave Afghanistan.

However, it is easy to see that the Left (as BobJ did above) wants to focus on the strategic decision to leave Afghanistan. T

2) Operations and Tactics

Operations and Tactics are how strategic decisions are implemented.

This is the level where massive failures by the administration obviously occurred.

To the extent that you can find any of this amusing-I have to give a wry chuckle when I think of how self-congratulatory the Left (cough Bob#'s cough) often is about their level of competence.

Not much competence on display in Afghanistan recently.

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Re: Afganistan

#5 Post by Bob Juch » Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:02 pm

This is a good time to be a burqa salesman in Kabul. :evil:
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
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Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

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Re: Afganistan

#6 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:39 pm

Image
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Re: Afganistan

#7 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm

What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#8 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm
What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
People are upset with Biden now, in some ways justifiable, in other ways Republican hypocritical posturing.

But six months from now, nobody's going to care one way or another about Afghanistan. Biden will be measured by how we do with our COVID response and how the economy is doing (whether and in what form the infrastructure bills go through).
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Re: Afganistan

#9 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:26 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm
Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm
What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
People are upset with Biden now, in some ways justifiable, in other ways Republican hypocritical posturing.

But six months from now, nobody's going to care one way or another about Afghanistan. Biden will be measured by how we do with our COVID response and how the economy is doing (whether and in what form the infrastructure bills go through).
Well of course. He's doing so well there. Plus, the next mideast originated attack will just be attributed to...oops Pakistan or whateverBeauHunterburble....
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#10 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:29 pm

Omyword. The economy? That is funny. I missed that the first look.
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#11 Post by BackInTex » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:58 am

silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm
Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm
What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
People are upset with Biden now, in some ways justifiable, in other ways Republican hypocritical posturing.

But six months from now, nobody's going to care one way or another about Afghanistan. Biden will be measured by how we do with our COVID response and how the economy is doing (whether and in what form the infrastructure bills go through).
Americans will remember. Just like we remember Iran 40+ years later. The 15,000 Americans still in Afghanistan and their families will remember. I will remember.

We will also remember how Great Britain and France sent in their troops to rescue and bring their citizens out of harm's way, while our Commander in Chief and his minion generals priorities were making sure transgender soldiers are treated well and white male soldiers understood their privilege and micro-aggressions.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Afganistan

#12 Post by silverscreenselect » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:27 am

BackInTex wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:58 am
silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm
Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm
What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
People are upset with Biden now, in some ways justifiable, in other ways Republican hypocritical posturing.

But six months from now, nobody's going to care one way or another about Afghanistan. Biden will be measured by how we do with our COVID response and how the economy is doing (whether and in what form the infrastructure bills go through).
Americans will remember. Just like we remember Iran 40+ years later. The 15,000 Americans still in Afghanistan and their families will remember. I will remember.

We will also remember how Great Britain and France sent in their troops to rescue and bring their citizens out of harm's way, while our Commander in Chief and his minion generals priorities were making sure transgender soldiers are treated well and white male soldiers understood their privilege and micro-aggressions.
Your information is a bit dated. We flew about 200 Americans out by helicopter in one mission yesterday and there will undoubtedly be more to come. It's not surprising that the Army said they didn't plan any rescues while they were pretty obviously planning this one. You don't tip off the enemy what you intend to do. The British and French have far fewer people to get out and don't have to worry as much about long term consequences.
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Re: Afganistan

#13 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:37 am

BackInTex wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:58 am
silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm
Beebs52 wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:58 pm
What? Plus who cares? Biden is prez.
People are upset with Biden now, in some ways justifiable, in other ways Republican hypocritical posturing.

But six months from now, nobody's going to care one way or another about Afghanistan. Biden will be measured by how we do with our COVID response and how the economy is doing (whether and in what form the infrastructure bills go through).
Americans will remember. Just like we remember Iran 40+ years later. The 15,000 Americans still in Afghanistan and their families will remember. I will remember.

We will also remember how Great Britain and France sent in their troops to rescue and bring their citizens out of harm's way, while our Commander in Chief and his minion generals priorities were making sure transgender soldiers are treated well and white male soldiers understood their privilege and micro-aggressions.
Don't you realize this snafu is a result of the failure of military "intelligence"? Do you really think Biden did anything other than to allow his generals to implement their plan? Just as JFK let the CIA's plans made under Eisenhower go though. Watch for some early retirements.

Despite the RNC sanitizing their website, people remember the GOP trumpeting the agreement with the Taliban.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

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Re: Afganistan

#14 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:34 am

Nicholas Kristof wrote:I'm afraid that Americans are retreating to their ideological camps about Afghanistan, sometimes suggesting that President Biden was absolutely right or absolutely wrong. It seems to be more nuanced.

As I see it, Biden was right to pull US troops out of Afghanistan and end the US presence there after 20 years. But there was a clear intelligence failure, and partly as a result, the withdrawal was not just poorly executed but conducted in a way that betrayed our Afghan partners and put them at grave risk.

Look, intelligence failures are inevitable. Good people screw up. But let's acknowledge that this was indeed a catastrophic screw-up that betrayed and endangered American citizens and Afghans alike. It's also fair to note that it reflected real policy failures in Afghanistan that go back to George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. Biden inherited a failed policy there. I believe Biden, in other respects, has a sound foreign policy and may be a historic president on the domestic front, but it's also only fair to acknowledge that the withdrawal from Afghanistan, while I believe that was the right decision, was executed very poorly in a way that betrays and endangers our partners and allies.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

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Re: Afganistan

#15 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:01 am

Seth Meyers Wants Trump to Stop Complimenting the Taliban

“You don’t have to give the Taliban credit for anything — they’re the Taliban!” Meyers said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/arts ... liban.html
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Re: Afganistan

#16 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:06 pm

Officials: Several US Marines killed in Kabul airport attack

A U.S. official says several Marines were killed, and several other American military were wounded Thursday in an attack on Kabul’s airport.
The attackers were ISIS, not the Taliban.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

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Re: Afganistan

#17 Post by BackInTex » Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:44 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:06 pm
Officials: Several US Marines killed in Kabul airport attack

A U.S. official says several Marines were killed, and several other American military were wounded Thursday in an attack on Kabul’s airport.
The attackers were ISIS, not the Taliban.
Who gives a f**k which one it was. The blood is on Biden. What cluster this administration is.

Also, who gives a f**k what Meyers says on his "comedy" show.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Afganistan

#18 Post by Bob78164 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:50 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:44 pm
Bob Juch wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:06 pm
Officials: Several US Marines killed in Kabul airport attack

A U.S. official says several Marines were killed, and several other American military were wounded Thursday in an attack on Kabul’s airport.
The attackers were ISIS, not the Taliban.
Who gives a f**k which one it was. The blood is on Biden. What cluster this administration is.

Also, who gives a f**k what Meyers says on his "comedy" show.
What makes you think anyone could have done it better? What would you have done differently? Carping is easy. Solutions are hard. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Afganistan

#19 Post by BackInTex » Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:26 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:50 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:44 pm
Bob Juch wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:06 pm
The attackers were ISIS, not the Taliban.
Who gives a f**k which one it was. The blood is on Biden. What cluster this administration is.

Also, who gives a f**k what Meyers says on his "comedy" show.
What makes you think anyone could have done it better? What would you have done differently? Carping is easy. Solutions are hard. --Bob
Everything seems hard for Biden. Complete incompetence, domestically and abroad.

He started his administration, heck all during his campaign, promising more to non-Americans than Americans. The pattern is holding.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Afganistan

#20 Post by Bob78164 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:28 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:26 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:50 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:44 pm
Who gives a f**k which one it was. The blood is on Biden. What cluster this administration is.

Also, who gives a f**k what Meyers says on his "comedy" show.
What makes you think anyone could have done it better? What would you have done differently? Carping is easy. Solutions are hard. --Bob
Everything seems hard for Biden. Complete incompetence, domestically and abroad.

He started his administration, heck all during his campaign, promising more to non-Americans than Americans. The pattern is holding.
Not an answer to my question. How would you have managed the situation differently? --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Afganistan

#21 Post by Beebs52 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:54 pm

Biden did a lovely hypothetical whatabout (Yemen vs Afghan. al qaeda) BobJ....quite interesting
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#22 Post by tlynn78 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:17 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:28 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:26 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:50 pm
What makes you think anyone could have done it better? What would you have done differently? Carping is easy. Solutions are hard. --Bob
Everything seems hard for Biden. Complete incompetence, domestically and abroad.

He started his administration, heck all during his campaign, promising more to non-Americans than Americans. The pattern is holding.
Not an answer to my question. How would you have managed the situation differently? --Bob
For starters, get civilians, allies and weaponry out BEFORE the military.
Forget stock in burquas - I'm buying stock in chiropractic practices. The gymnastics you peeps on the left will need to do to justify Sleepy Joe's 'presidency' will make that a bull market.
To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. -Thomas Paine
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Re: Afganistan

#23 Post by Beebs52 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:23 pm

tlynn78 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:17 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:28 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:26 pm
Everything seems hard for Biden. Complete incompetence, domestically and abroad.

He started his administration, heck all during his campaign, promising more to non-Americans than Americans. The pattern is holding.
Not an answer to my question. How would you have managed the situation differently? --Bob
For starters, get civilians, allies and weaponry out BEFORE the military.
Forget stock in burquas - I'm buying stock in chiropractic practices. The gymnastics you peeps on the left will need to do to justify Sleepy Joe's 'presidency' will make that a bull market.
Oh jeez. That's too, you know, smart?
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#24 Post by Beebs52 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:32 pm

Who put 8/31 in concrete. Joe?
Well, then

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Re: Afganistan

#25 Post by Bob78164 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:45 pm

tlynn78 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:17 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:28 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:26 pm
Everything seems hard for Biden. Complete incompetence, domestically and abroad.

He started his administration, heck all during his campaign, promising more to non-Americans than Americans. The pattern is holding.
Not an answer to my question. How would you have managed the situation differently? --Bob
For starters, get civilians, allies and weaponry out BEFORE the military.
Forget stock in burquas - I'm buying stock in chiropractic practices. The gymnastics you peeps on the left will need to do to justify Sleepy Joe's 'presidency' will make that a bull market.
Do you have a clue how long that would take? Because just getting the people out, much less the equipment, is going to take months, and that's cramming thousands of people at a time into our largest planes.

You might want to check out what Seth Moulton and Peter Meijer said after returning from Afghanistan. Both of them changed their mind as a result of that trip. They had thought President Biden should delay our departure until after August 31. Once they actually saw the facts on the ground, they concluded that there was no way to make the evacuation work without cooperation from the Taliban, and the price of that cooperation would be leaving on August 31.

President Biden assumed (based on intelligence estimates that we'll probably never see) that the Afghan government would hold Kabul long enough to make the process more orderly. When Donny negotiated the withdrawal, I don't recall anyone here predicting that the Afghan government would collapse in a matter of days.

So if you want to take the extra months and months necessary to get all of that done, understand it's going to happen at the price of additional American casualties because the Taliban would resume shooting at us. Is that a price you're willing to ask American soldiers to pay? President Biden decided it wasn't. So what would we gain that you think is worth the extra American deaths we would have paid?

Like I said, carping is easy. Solutions are hard. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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