The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

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Spock
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The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#1 Post by Spock » Thu May 13, 2021 8:19 pm

https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Given that there are only 277 reported deaths from Covid among those 0 to 17 years of age-many with multiple comorbidities-

It is very likely that there will be more healthy (without severe co-morbidities) 12 to 15 year olds that die from the vaccine than died from Covid.

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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#2 Post by Beebs52 » Thu May 13, 2021 8:27 pm

How so?
Well, then

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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#3 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 13, 2021 9:27 pm

Spock wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:19 pm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Given that there are only 277 reported deaths from Covid among those 0 to 17 years of age-many with multiple comorbidities-

It is very likely that there will be more healthy (without severe co-morbidities) 12 to 15 year olds that die from the vaccine than died from Covid.
Your math skills are sadly lacking. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#4 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 13, 2021 9:47 pm

Spock wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:19 pm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Given that there are only 277 reported deaths from Covid among those 0 to 17 years of age-many with multiple comorbidities-

It is very likely that there will be more healthy (without severe co-morbidities) 12 to 15 year olds that die from the vaccine than died from Covid.
And again, you miss a very important point about the vaccine. Those 12-15 are highly unlikely to die from COVID. They are significantly more likely to pass the disease along to others who are significantly more likely to die from COVID.

And, lest we forget, here's a Spock golden oldie that just celebrated its one-year anniversary:
Spock 5/13/20 wrote: It seems that a modest increase in cases (possibly to be expected as restrictions ease) would be consistent with all the 'flattening the curve' graphs we saw 2 months ago. Or are we just supposed to drop those graphs down the memory hole?

We need to start building up some herd immunity at some point.
It's odd how you were the Bored champion for the herd immunity theory that we should just let people catch the disease and get herd immunity eventually, but you are opposed to a vaccine that, if taken, will actually enable us to achieve the herd immunity that you thought was just around the corner a year ago.

For the record, the death toll by May 13, 2020 in the US was about 83,000. We've added another 500,000 to that since then.
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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#5 Post by BackInTex » Thu May 13, 2021 10:10 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 9:27 pm
Spock wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:19 pm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Given that there are only 277 reported deaths from Covid among those 0 to 17 years of age-many with multiple comorbidities-

It is very likely that there will be more healthy (without severe co-morbidities) 12 to 15 year olds that die from the vaccine than died from Covid.
Your math skills are sadly lacking. --Bob
My math skills aren’t lacking. What has Spock said that is mathematically inaccurate?

Please show your work.
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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#6 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 13, 2021 10:37 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 10:10 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 9:27 pm
Spock wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:19 pm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Given that there are only 277 reported deaths from Covid among those 0 to 17 years of age-many with multiple comorbidities-

It is very likely that there will be more healthy (without severe co-morbidities) 12 to 15 year olds that die from the vaccine than died from Covid.
Your math skills are sadly lacking. --Bob
My math skills aren’t lacking. What has Spock said that is mathematically inaccurate?

Please show your work.
That there's any reasonable likelihood that hundreds of children will die from the vaccine, when there's no evidence that the vaccine has caused hundreds of deaths among the much larger general population. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#7 Post by BackInTex » Fri May 14, 2021 8:01 am

Bob78164 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 10:37 pm
BackInTex wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 10:10 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 9:27 pm
Your math skills are sadly lacking. --Bob
My math skills aren’t lacking. What has Spock said that is mathematically inaccurate?

Please show your work.
That there's any reasonable likelihood that hundreds of children will die from the vaccine, when there's no evidence that the vaccine has caused hundreds of deaths among the much larger general population. --Bob
He did not say hundreds of children will die from the vaccine. He did not indicate any number, just a relative measure of "more".

He noted 277 have died, many with comorbidities. He said it likely that more healthy (without severe comorbidities) may die. There is no number who have died without comorbidities so "more" could be accurate at 1, if all 277 had comorbidities. Maybe it was 6. So if 7 die, that would be more. Nothing wrong with Spock's math.
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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#8 Post by Appa23 » Fri May 14, 2021 9:07 am

One of the interesting things that happened this week is our pediatrician advised my wife that she did not think that our kids (almost 21, 19, and 14) should get the vaccine. This is the first time that she advised against getting a shot. Not based on deaths but potential adverse reactions of vaccine vs COVID.

Older 2 already were vaccinated due to college rules. Each had some adverse reaction after 2d shot, which coincided with finals.

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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#9 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri May 14, 2021 9:15 am

BackInTex wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 8:01 am
He said it likely that more healthy (without severe comorbidities) may die. There is no number who have died without comorbidities so "more" could be accurate at 1, if all 277 had comorbidities. Maybe it was 6. So if 7 die, that would be more. Nothing wrong with Spock's math.
The term "very likely" implies not a possibility but a high probability, certainly well over 50%. Here's what the CDC said about deaths from the COVID vaccines:
Over 259 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through May 10, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 4,434 reports of death (0.0017%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA physicians review each case report of death as soon as notified and CDC requests medical records to further assess reports. A review of available clinical information, including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records has not established a causal link to COVID-19 vaccines. However, recent reports indicate a plausible causal relationship between the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine and a rare and serious adverse event—blood clots with low platelets—which has caused deaths.
The only causal link between a COVID vaccine and fatalities has occurred due to blood clots for women in certain age groups who receive the J&J vaccine, and that is less than one in a million. 12-15 year olds won't fall in that category. So Spock's statement about what is "very likely" has no medical or scientific basis and is merely just another wild doomsday prediction on his part. And we all know what his success rate as far as COVID predictions has been so far.
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Re: The Sad Part about Vaccinating 12-15 Year Olds

#10 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri May 14, 2021 9:22 am

Appa23 wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 9:07 am
One of the interesting things that happened this week is our pediatrician advised my wife that she did not think that our kids (almost 21, 19, and 14) should get the vaccine. This is the first time that she advised against getting a shot. Not based on deaths but potential adverse reactions of vaccine vs COVID.

Older 2 already were vaccinated due to college rules. Each had some adverse reaction after 2d shot, which coincided with finals.
While I'm not doubting what Appa's pediatrician said, here's what the AMA said yesterday:
In a clinical trial of more than 2,200 adolescents, Pfizer’s vaccine was found to be 100% effective. It will be administered in two doses, three weeks apart—the same regimen that people 16 and older have been receiving. The side effects for this age group were consistent with those seen adults. They include pain, redness and swelling of the arm that received the shot as well as chills, tiredness, muscle pain, fever and headache.

“The recommendation approved today by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices supporting the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in individuals age 12–15 years of age brings us one critical step closer to our nation’s goal of achieving widespread vaccination among the U.S. population,” said AMA President Susan R. Bailey, MD.

Adolescents can get seriously ill from COVID-19 and they can also spread the coronavirus to others. About 1.5 million American children 11–17 years old were diagnosed with COVID-19 in between March 2020 and April 2021, according to the CDC. Since the pandemic began, nearly 500 people 17 and younger have died from COVID-19 in the U.S.

“We know that adolescents 12 years of age and up are at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 and can contribute to transmission of COVID-19 to others,” said Dr. Bailey. “Having safe and effective vaccine available to this age group will help them return to normal activities and help protect more people from the spread of COVID-19.”

By allowing those 12 and up to get a COVID-19 vaccine, it will help accelerate the country’s efforts to reduce infections and is another step toward returning to some form of normalcy. This also comes at a time when many parents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 while their children are not, which has introduced another complexity as families learn to live amid a pandemic that’s on the wane but still a huge public health threat.
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