Incompetence may have spread the fear

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BackInTex
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Incompetence may have spread the fear

#1 Post by BackInTex » Tue May 11, 2021 10:11 am

A huge exaggeration

I'm being nice using the word "incompetence". It is likely far more sinister. Maybe "thirst for power" or simply "Political skullduggery" would be more precise.

Trust in the CDC is for fools. They have shown themselves to be power hungry and political.
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors.
Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.
In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent,
There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#2 Post by mrkelley23 » Tue May 11, 2021 10:27 am

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:11 am
A huge exaggeration

I'm being nice using the word "incompetence". It is likely far more sinister. Maybe "thirst for power" or simply "Political skullduggery" would be more precise.

Trust in the CDC is for fools. They have shown themselves to be power hungry and political.
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors.
Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.
In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent,
There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.
I don't disagree with the author of the article you cite, but I believe he would disagree with your characterization of the CDC. Bureaucratic and overly risk-averse, yes. If it were thirst for power or political skullduggery (beyond the usual bureaucratic nonsense) I would have expected to see a major shift between March 2020 and now.

I have been mystified for over a year now by CDC on two counts: why they seem to believe outdoor activities are a major risk; and why there weren't booming headlines when it became apparent that Covid-19 is airborne-spread. Of course, it would have helped if we had been doing testing and tracing at the right time, but that's water under the (outdoor) bridge now.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#3 Post by BackInTex » Tue May 11, 2021 10:57 am

mrkelley23 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:27 am
If it were thirst for power or political skullduggery (beyond the usual bureaucratic nonsense) I would have expected to see a major shift between March 2020 and now.
With the influence the CDC is allowing teachers' unions to have over its recommendations, I'll reaffirm my political skullduggery comment.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#4 Post by mrkelley23 » Tue May 11, 2021 11:45 am

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:57 am
mrkelley23 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:27 am
If it were thirst for power or political skullduggery (beyond the usual bureaucratic nonsense) I would have expected to see a major shift between March 2020 and now.
With the influence the CDC is allowing teachers' unions to have over its recommendations, I'll reaffirm my political skullduggery comment.
Okay. It's probably a pretty fine line between your definition of skullduggery and my definition of political bureaucracy.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#5 Post by silverscreenselect » Tue May 11, 2021 12:04 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:11 am
Trust in the CDC is for fools. They have shown themselves to be power hungry and political.
I'm curious just who you would suggest we place our trust in with regard to diseases and pandemics? Donald Trump? Greg Abbott? Tucker Carlson? Spock? Any kook who shows up on Fox News and tells right wingers what they want to hear?

Or just that everyone ignore their doctors and do what they personally think feels good?

No medical authority is perfect. But in general, listening and following the advice from the CDC and other medical authorities in the pandemic would have saved several hundred thousand American lives.

We'll never be sure to what extent the pronouncements from the CDC and other health organizations were shaped by their concerns about reactions from the White House. If the CDC had broadcast these findings last summer, Trump and governors like Abbott and DeSantis would have had a field day removing just about every restriction on outdoor activities. Imagine packed stadiums when infections started ticking back up.

And in general it's always a better idea to err on the side of caution. If medication says don't take more than six in a 24 hour period, I'm pretty sure that taking seven won't be fatal, but I'd rather not chance just how many more I can safely take.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#6 Post by silverscreenselect » Tue May 11, 2021 12:34 pm

One other note:

This article comes from the lying liberal media New York Times. I'm surprised that BiT would believe anything they have to say since they are so obviously in the tank for Biden and the Democrats.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#7 Post by Bob78164 » Tue May 11, 2021 12:53 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 12:34 pm
One other note:

This article comes from the lying liberal media New York Times. I'm surprised that BiT would believe anything they have to say since they are so obviously in the tank for Biden and the Democrats.
For me, the important point is that it was possible to effectively critique the CDC communication because CDC showed its work. It identified the studies it was relying on.

That's something one generally doesn't see in conservative media. And it's the reason I routinely ask for primary sources before responding to conservative media claims that I consider implausible. Far too often, there is no there there and the claim is either a wild exaggeration or completely made up. I check out questionable claims when they appear in more mainstream outlets as well, but they're usually much better about making the primary source material readily available.

That said, this seems to me a serious error on the part of CDC, one which I think the Administration has an obligation to promptly address, not just by correcting the record, but by implementing steps that lead to more accurate communications with the American people. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#8 Post by BackInTex » Tue May 11, 2021 12:59 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 12:34 pm
One other note:

This article comes from the lying liberal media New York Times. I'm surprised that BiT would believe anything they have to say since they are so obviously in the tank for Biden and the Democrats.
I found the summary of the article, and a link, on Fox News, giving it the credibility you require.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#9 Post by BackInTex » Tue May 11, 2021 1:11 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 12:53 pm

That said, this seems to me a serious error on the part of CDC, one which I think the Administration has an obligation to promptly address, not just by correcting the record, but by implementing steps that lead to more accurate communications with the American people. --Bob
Like SSS said, if we can't trust the CDC, then who do we trust?

Well, I can no longer fully trust the CDC so that is a good question.
SSS wrote:If the CDC had broadcast these findings last summer, Trump and governors like Abbott and DeSantis would have had a field day removing just about every restriction on outdoor activities. Imagine packed stadiums when infections started ticking back up.
That is true, infections ticking back up because of outdoor stadium crowds would using your imagination.

BTW, no statewide restrictions in Texas since March 9th in Texas. Average daily new cases down 46% (lowest since 6/10/20) Hospitalizations down 50% (lowest since 6/11/20). And that's with all the sick, unchecked, migrants walking unimpeded into our state.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#10 Post by Bob78164 » Tue May 11, 2021 3:03 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 1:11 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 12:53 pm
That said, this seems to me a serious error on the part of CDC, one which I think the Administration has an obligation to promptly address, not just by correcting the record, but by implementing steps that lead to more accurate communications with the American people. --Bob
Like SSS said, if we can't trust the CDC, then who do we trust?

Well, I can no longer fully trust the CDC so that is a good question.
SSS wrote:If the CDC had broadcast these findings last summer, Trump and governors like Abbott and DeSantis would have had a field day removing just about every restriction on outdoor activities. Imagine packed stadiums when infections started ticking back up.
That is true, infections ticking back up because of outdoor stadium crowds would using your imagination.

BTW, no statewide restrictions in Texas since March 9th in Texas. Average daily new cases down 46% (lowest since 6/10/20) Hospitalizations down 50% (lowest since 6/11/20). And that's with all the sick, unchecked, migrants walking unimpeded into our state.
And you have only 40% more cases in the hospital than California does.

Actually, that's not apples-to-apples. Texas's number includes only lab-confirmed cases. California's number includes known and suspected cases. So the actual disparity is somewhat higher.

It's a good thing we don't share a border with Mexico, like Texas does, or who knows how many cases we'd have.

On the other point, as long as you can trust CDC to show its work, as it has been doing, trust drops out of the equation. You can verify. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#11 Post by BackInTex » Tue May 11, 2021 3:47 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 3:03 pm

It's a good thing we don't share a border with Mexico, like Texas does, or who knows how many cases we'd have.
YTD border apprehensions (the ones they've caught) for California is 2,935. For Texas it is 35,921. That's over 12 times as many in Texas as in California. Texas' Q1 number is 300% of what it was in 2020. California's is only 167% of last year.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#12 Post by Bob Juch » Tue May 11, 2021 3:49 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 3:47 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 3:03 pm

It's a good thing we don't share a border with Mexico, like Texas does, or who knows how many cases we'd have.
YTD border apprehensions (the ones they've caught) for California is 2,935. For Texas it is 35,921. That's over 12 times as many in Texas as in California. Texas' Q1 number is 300% of what it was in 2020. California's is only 167% of last year.
I guess you're right, people don't want to move to California.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#13 Post by silverscreenselect » Tue May 11, 2021 4:27 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 1:11 pm
That is true, infections ticking back up because of outdoor stadium crowds would using your imagination.

BTW, no statewide restrictions in Texas since March 9th in Texas. Average daily new cases down 46% (lowest since 6/10/20) Hospitalizations down 50% (lowest since 6/11/20). And that's with all the sick, unchecked, migrants walking unimpeded into our state.
Of course, last summer, we didn't have any vaccine. Now we do, so it's not an apples to apples comparison. Last summer, Abbott ignored the CDC and began lifting restrictions in May. That didn't work out too well. Then in September he eased up on restrictions again. That didn't work out too well either.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#14 Post by silverscreenselect » Sun May 23, 2021 9:49 am

BackInTex wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 1:11 pm
BTW, no statewide restrictions in Texas since March 9th in Texas. Average daily new cases down 46% (lowest since 6/10/20) Hospitalizations down 50% (lowest since 6/11/20). And that's with all the sick, unchecked, migrants walking unimpeded into our state.
Here's an article about why the Texas lifting of the mask restriction has had little effect on case rates. One theory the author floats is that people pretty much behaved the way they behaved before, one way or another:
Yet another explanation is that Abbott’s decision didn’t matter because nobody changed their behavior. According to the aforementioned Texas paper, Abbot’s decision had no effect on employment, movement throughout the state, or foot traffic to retailers. It had no effect in either liberal or conservative counties, nor in urban or exurban areas. The pro-maskers kept their masks on their faces. The anti-maskers kept their masks in the garbage. And many essential workers, who never felt like they had a choice to begin with, continued their pre-announcement habits.The governor might as well have shouted into a void.

Across the country, in fact, people’s pandemic behavior appears to be disconnected from local policy, which complicates any effort to know which COVID-19 policies actually work. In November, for instance, a team of economists using private data to survey all 50 states concluded that state-ordered shutdowns and reopenings had only “small impacts on spending and employment.” Colorado and New Mexico both issued stay-at-home orders at the end of March 2020. Colorado partially reopened that May, several weeks before New Mexico, but this divergence resulted in no measurable difference between their economic recoveries. "Spending evolved nearly identically in these two states,” the economists wrote. Another paper focused on the Illinois-Iowa state line. Last spring, Illinois towns issued stay-at-home orders, while Iowa towns a few miles away did not. The decline in economic activity was just about the same on both sides of the border.

Decrees from the federal government may not affect Americans any more than local rules do. In a recent announcement, the CDC reversed its guidance for vaccinated individuals in a manner so dramatic that it struck some as the V-E Day of the pandemic. But survey results from The Economist and YouGov show that the big pivot hasn’t dramatically changed people’s masking behaviors. The main drivers of mask wearing have been ideology, partisanship, and vaccination status—which is itself highly, if imperfectly, correlated with ideology. Most people aren’t waiting on the CDC.
...
So perhaps the Texas mystery isn’t much of a mystery at all. It’s just the latest piece of evidence that many Americans used the last year to seal themselves inside pandemic-information silos of their own construction—some for better, against tardy and tangled public-health guidance, and some for worse. Their settled views are now somewhat resistant to official utterances, which would explain both why rule-following liberals are having a hard time letting the pandemic go and why many people who have downplayed the risk of the pandemic don’t want to take an extremely effective vaccine. The calendar has flipped, but for many people, the traumas and outrages of 2020 haven’t quite gone away.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#15 Post by Bob Juch » Sun May 23, 2021 10:47 am

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." -- Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#16 Post by BackInTex » Sun May 23, 2021 1:17 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 9:49 am

Here's an article about why the Texas lifting of the mask restriction has had little effect on case rates. One theory the author floats is that people pretty much behaved the way they behaved before, one way or another:
So what you're saying (or maybe the article saying it and you're agreeing) is that Texans didn't follow previous CDC protocols and yet we still have the lowest average daily case rates since late May 2020 and lowest number in the hospital with Covid since early June. Translation: Following or not following the CDC protocols had little effect.

Glad you're finally realizing that.

Now make it quit raining here. I'm trying to sell a house.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#17 Post by Beebs52 » Sun May 23, 2021 2:22 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 1:17 pm
silverscreenselect wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 9:49 am

Here's an article about why the Texas lifting of the mask restriction has had little effect on case rates. One theory the author floats is that people pretty much behaved the way they behaved before, one way or another:
So what you're saying (or maybe the article saying it and you're agreeing) is that Texans didn't follow previous CDC protocols and yet we still have the lowest average daily case rates since late May 2020 and lowest number in the hospital with Covid since early June. Translation: Following or not following the CDC protocols had little effect.

Glad you're finally realizing that.

Now make it quit raining here. I'm trying to sell a house.
Rec
Well, then

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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#18 Post by Bob Juch » Sun May 23, 2021 2:58 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 1:17 pm
Now make it quit raining here. I'm trying to sell a house.
I hope it's made of gopherwood.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#19 Post by silverscreenselect » Sun May 23, 2021 3:32 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 1:17 pm
Translation: Following or not following the CDC protocols had little effect.
No, following the science has a lot of effect. Forunately for Texans, many people listened to Dr. Fauci and the CDC last year instead of Trump and Abbott.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#20 Post by Beebs52 » Sun May 23, 2021 4:05 pm

Science is the tool not the answer, not my original thought. If Fauci may be waffling about origin why bow to him completely on masks etc etc

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rally.html
Well, then

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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#21 Post by Bob Juch » Sun May 23, 2021 6:51 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 4:05 pm
Science is the tool not the answer, not my original thought. If Fauci may be waffling about origin why bow to him completely on masks etc etc

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rally.html
Apples and oranges.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#22 Post by Bob Juch » Fri May 28, 2021 11:53 am

Here's my postulation:

The virus was detected in the wild, so the Wuhan lab brought in bats to study. Some of the scientists became infected. The lab didn't release the virus intentionally, but some of their staff may have spread it outside of the lab. It also was in the bats which infected the non-lab residents.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#23 Post by Estonut » Sat May 29, 2021 2:28 am

Bob Juch wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 11:53 am
Here's my postulation:

The virus was detected in the wild, so the Wuhan lab brought in bats to study. Some of the scientists became infected. The lab didn't release the virus intentionally, but some of their staff may have spread it outside of the lab. It also was in the bats which infected the non-lab residents.
I don't believe any infected bat, nor any other infected animal, was ever found.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#24 Post by Bob Juch » Sat May 29, 2021 11:18 am

Estonut wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 2:28 am
Bob Juch wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 11:53 am
Here's my postulation:

The virus was detected in the wild, so the Wuhan lab brought in bats to study. Some of the scientists became infected. The lab didn't release the virus intentionally, but some of their staff may have spread it outside of the lab. It also was in the bats which infected the non-lab residents.
I don't believe any infected bat, nor any other infected animal, was ever found.
You need a new belief system.
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Re: Incompetence may have spread the fear

#25 Post by Estonut » Sun May 30, 2021 11:57 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 11:18 am
Estonut wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 2:28 am
Bob Juch wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 11:53 am
Here's my postulation:

The virus was detected in the wild, so the Wuhan lab brought in bats to study. Some of the scientists became infected. The lab didn't release the virus intentionally, but some of their staff may have spread it outside of the lab. It also was in the bats which infected the non-lab residents.
I don't believe any infected bat, nor any other infected animal, was ever found.
You need a new belief system.
OK. Please cite all reports you've seen of animals infected with COVID-19 in the proper time-frame.
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