Electoral College Pool

[Buffacuse]

I have it at 352 Biden to 185 Trump. I gave Trump Texas, Iowa and Georgia. I gave Biden North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The rest are pretty much decided.

[bazodee]

I've got Trump picking up 1 electoral vote from Maine-2 and Biden picking up 1 electoral vote from Nebraska-2.
At this point, that's the only bet I'm willing to make (other than the audacious prediction that Biden will become the 47th President; not the 46th)

[Bob78164]

I've got Trump picking up 1 electoral vote from Maine-2 and Biden picking up 1 electoral vote from Nebraska-2.
At this point, that's the only bet I'm willing to make (other than the audacious prediction that Biden will become the 47th President; not the 46th)

You might want to take another look at recent polling in ME-2. --Bob

[Estonut]

I've got Trump picking up 1 electoral vote from Maine-2 and Biden picking up 1 electoral vote from Nebraska-2.
At this point, that's the only bet I'm willing to make (other than the audacious prediction that Biden will become the 47th President; not the 46th)

You might want to take another look at recent polling in ME-2.

You guys are all so hung up on polling. Do your pollsters have built-in estimates for how many respondents lied to them? I suspect there exist way more of those this time than ever before.

[silverscreenselect]

Do your pollsters have built-in estimates for how many respondents lied to them? I suspect there exist way more of those this time than ever before.

Lying cuts both ways. I've heard anecdotal stories of Republican women who are now voting Democratic but not telling friends or family. Again, this is anecdotal, but so is the evidence of the "lying" Trump voter.

Many of the polls nowadays are automated and don't involve talking to a live interviewer. The pressure to "lie" under these circumstances is less, but the results of these polls are quite similar to live interviewer polls.

Of course, polling is often like the BCS championship in the early days of this century. Each year, the formula would pick the "wrong" teams for the championship game based on popular consensus of who the two best teams in the country were. And each year, the committee would tinker a bit and produce a formula that would have yielded the "right" result for the past season. And then the new formula would produce the "wrong" results for the very next season.

Pollsters have analyzed the 2016 results and come up with three reasons why the state polls were off in key states (the national polling was within 1% of the exact popular vote). First, they did not subdivide voters by education since in previous elections, white voters with high school or less educations voted similarly to those with college educations. They have now fixed that problem. Second there was very little polling by top-rated pollsters in battleground states in the week or so before the election. In some cases, state level polling was 2-3 weeks old and the only later results were conducted by state colleges (on-the-job training for their students in most cases). This year, every potential battleground state has been polled numerous times, many in this last week. And that leads to three, the breaking news of the Comey investigation, which had a substantial effect in battleground state polls. We havent' had that so far this year, and with the increasing number of early votes, it's less likely that any possible bombshell will reach a lot of people. If anything, the "breaking" story now is the rapid increase in coronavirus cases. And that brings up a fourth difference. There were far more undecided voters in 2016 than today, mostly people who didn't like either Trump or Hillary. There are very few genuinely undecided voters today.

[jaybee]

Anybody know how far outside the margin of error things went in the 2016 polls?

I'm pretty confident in poll results whenever those results show a lead that's greater than the polls margin of error. If the MoE is 3.5% and they are showing a candidate leading by 5%, It's probably going to hold up for win/lose results.

[Bob78164]

Anybody know how far outside the margin of error things went in the 2016 polls?

I'm pretty confident in poll results whenever those results show a lead that's greater than the polls margin of error. If the MoE is 3.5% and they are showing a candidate leading by 5%, It's probably going to hold up for win/lose results.

In Nate I trust. I'm pretty confident that national polls in 2016 turned out to be comfortably within the margin of error. Nate's site sounded a loud alarm bell to that effect before the election. State polls in the upper Midwest missed by a bit more. That was a combination of pollsters not weighting by education and undecideds breaking for Donny in large numbers in the wake of the Comey letter.

My own hope is that most pollsters are underweighting the youth vote this year. We'll find out next week. --Bob

[wbtravis007]

I've got Trump picking up 1 electoral vote from Maine-2 and Biden picking up 1 electoral vote from Nebraska-2.
At this point, that's the only bet I'm willing to make (other than the audacious prediction that Biden will become the 47th President; not the 46th)

You might want to take another look at recent polling in ME-2.

You guys are all so hung up on polling. Do your pollsters have built-in estimates for how many respondents lied to them? I suspect there exist way more of those this time than ever before.

If there's any lying to pollsters going on around here it's by closet Biden supporters. Reason I say that is that there literally are almost no professed Biden supporters. Tons of big Trump signs and flags, including on vehicles. Virtually none for Biden. People seem to be competing to demonstrate how much they love America and Trump and hate the radical communists. Certainly not trying to change anyone's mind -- just preaching to the choir.

I'd bet that there are at least some voters (probably mostly women) who don't like Trump and will vote for Biden but don't have the guts to say that, not wanting to experience the social distancing (or worse) that would ensue.

[kroxquo]

You might want to take another look at recent polling in ME-2.

You guys are all so hung up on polling. Do your pollsters have built-in estimates for how many respondents lied to them? I suspect there exist way more of those this time than ever before.

If there's any lying to pollsters going on around here it's by closet Biden supporters. Reason I say that is that there literally are almost no professed Biden supporters. Tons of big Trump signs and flags, including on vehicles. Virtually none for Biden. People seem to be competing to demonstrate how much they love America and Trump and hate the radical communists. Certainly not trying to change anyone's mind -- just preaching to the choir.

I'd bet that there are at least some voters (probably mostly women) who don't like Trump and will vote for Biden but don't have the guts to say that, not wanting to experience the social distancing (or worse) that would ensue.

I actually agree with that. Living in rural eastern North Carolina which is about as red as an area can get, Trump signs, flags, etc. are ubiquitous and tghere is only one person (not me) in our community who has a Biden sign in front of their house. My wife will not allow a Biden sign at our house because she is afraid our house and/or cars will be vandalized. I think there are a lot more people in red areas than would like to admit it.

[jaybee]

Here in a definitely red state (Tennessee), I think we are split about 50/50 on yard signs between Biden & Trump. Now, there are a LOT more Trump vehicles out there - big Trump flags etc although I do see some Biden bumper stickers. And Trump boats - plenty of them with no Biden boats. But for yard signs, it's pretty even.

We've also had a fair share of election sign yard theft - from both sides although there are far more Biden signs stolen than Trump signs. Last week in a nearby neighborhood that has seen a lot of sign theft, one of them got caught and shamed on FaceBook. Somebody took pictures and posted the shots of a guy in a red truck that was decked out with Trump logos carrying a Biden sign out of a yard. When she yelled at him from inside her car he told her that "He noticed that the Biden sign had fallen down and he was putting it back up". (Kind of reminded me of the Grinch getting caught by little Cindy Lu Who while stealing Christmas lights)

That same neighborhood has one fairly obnoxious Biden supporter who likes to make his own signs out of bedsheets and spraypaint. He lives on a corner and has a lot of road frontage to exploit. No matter which side you are for, this makes for an ugly view while driving through the neighborhood. Complaints forced him to take some of them down as he has attached them to city owned power poles, but he just moved them elsewhere.

I've run into more people who are open about their support for Biden, less who are open about supporting Trump - which is odd considering the direction that our state will vote.

[silverscreenselect]

If the MoE is 3.5% and they are showing a candidate leading by 5%, It's probably going to hold up for win/lose results.

That's a misconception about the margin of error. The margin of error means that there is a very high probability (95-99% depending on the poll and the size of the sample) that the actual result is within the margin of error. However, the MOE applies to both candidates. So, if Biden leads Trump 50-45% in a state with a margin of 3%, then there is a very high probability that Biden's total will be between 53 and 47 and that Trump's total will be between 48 and 42. So, under this scenario, a Biden win by 11% is within the margin of error, but so is a Trump win by 1%. Obviously, the latter case is the only scenario that people will remember, but it's not an outlier.

Having said that, Biden's lead in Michigan and Wisconsin is outside the margin of error, and his lead in Pennsylvania is fairly close.

[silverscreenselect]

Do your pollsters have built-in estimates for how many respondents lied to them? I suspect there exist way more of those this time than ever before.

Lying cuts both ways. I've heard anecdotal stories of Republican women who are now voting Democratic but not telling friends or family. Again, this is anecdotal, but so is the evidence of the "lying" Trump voter.

Biden campaign cancels Texas event after Trump supporters surround bus on interstate

President Donald Trump on Saturday night appeared to embrace the actions of supporters in Texas who surrounded a Joe Biden campaign bus in what a Biden campaign official described as an attempt to slow down the bus and run it off the road. Trump tweeted a video of the caravan surrounding the Biden bus with the caption, "I LOVE TEXAS!"

The episode was an ugly closing note to the 2020 presidential campaign, which in Texas has seen record-breaking early vote totals that already exceed the number of total votes cast there in the 2016 election. The Biden campaign bus was traveling Friday from San Antonio to Austin as part of a push to urge Biden supporters to cast their ballots on the state's last day of early voting.

According to a source familiar with the incident, the vehicles were a "Trump Train group." These groups are known in parts of the state and organize events that involve their cars with flags and Trump paraphernalia and drive around to show support for President Donald Trump. The group began yelling profanities and obscenities and then blockaded the entire Biden entourage. At one point they slowed the tour bus to roughly 20 mph on Interstate 35, the campaign official said. The vehicles slowed down to try to stop the bus in the middle of the highway. The source said there were nearly 100 vehicles around the campaign bus. Biden staffers were rattled by the event, the source said, though no one was hurt.

Neither Biden nor his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, were on the bus. Multiple sources tell CNN that Wendy Davis, a former state senator who is challenging Republican Rep. Chip Roy for Texas' 21st Congressional District, was on the bus. Davis' campaign declined to comment. The Biden campaign, out of what was described as an abundance of caution, ended up canceling an event scheduled for later that day in Austin, the aide said.

If there's anyone who has a reason to be "shy," it's Biden supporters in red states. While Trump supporters might be looked down on, Biden supporters could be literally in danger for their lives. It's really scary to think about what's going to happen on November 4.

[Estonut]

All of these responses missed the point. I was talking about lying to pollsters, not to family, friends and co-workers. Of course the latter goes both ways, but why would a "closet Biden" supporter feel the need to lie to some anonymous pollster?

[silverscreenselect]

Of course the latter goes both ways, but why would a "closet Biden" supporter feel the need to lie to some anonymous pollster?

For the same reason a "closet Trump" supporter would feel the need to lie. I have a feeling that a lot of people on both sides of the political fence don't trust that "anonymous" pollsters are really anonymous.

[wbtravis007]

All of these responses missed the point. I was talking about lying to pollsters, not to family, friends and co-workers. Of course the latter goes both ways, but why would a "closet Biden" supporter feel the need to lie to some anonymous pollster?

You talkin' to me?

I'm thinking that you might be including mine in your description of "all of these responses" since you mentioned the "closet Biden" description, which was in my post. If I'm wrong ... never mind.

I didn't say a damned thing about thinking that people were lying to pollsters. And, no, I didn't miss your point. You had one, and only one: you think more people are lying to pollsters this time that usual. You didn't suggest whom you thought was likely to lie or why they would or whether your assertion was based on evidence or whether you just pulled this theory out of your ass or whether you heard someone else say that who had pulled it out of their ass or anything else. You really think I'm dumb enough to respond to you -- of all people -- by making assumptions about whatever the hell it was that you were trying to say in order to argue against it?

What I said was that if anyone around here is going to lie to a pollster it would more likely be a Biden voter. (Okay, I'll concede that maybe I didn't clarify that I was talking about what was "more likely;" please consider my post to be amended to that extent.) But, anyway, I'll ask you this: why would any hypothetical professed Trump voter in my area, as I described it, lie to a pollster and answer that they were going to vote for Biden? I'll be very interested to hear your answer.

Of course I get why some people would be ashamed to admit that they're voting for Trump, if that's the point that you didn't make, but they don't live around here.

I'm hoping, though, that there's another category of people who honestly answer that they're going to vote for Trump but, in the solitude of the "voting booth," for whatever reason, reflect, and change their mind.

[bazodee]

Here's my prediction (Monday, 6PM EST)

Biden 290
Trump 248

From the 2016 baseline map, here's what changes:
Biden wins AZ, PA, MI, WI and Nebraska-2

[Bob Juch]

Here's my prediction (Monday, 6PM EST)

Biden 290
Trump 248

From the 2016 baseline map, here's what changes:
Biden wins AZ, PA, MI, WI and Nebraska-2

I say Biden will win Florida and North Carolina.

[Bob78164]

I'll go with a combination of hope and analysis, bolstered by Cook Political Report moving the Texas House from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

Vice President Biden wins: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (all 4 electoral votes), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nebraska CD 2, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsyvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

Total: 413 electoral votes. --Bob

[wbtravis007]

Here's my prediction (Monday, 6PM EST)

Biden 290
Trump 248

From the 2016 baseline map, here's what changes:
Biden wins AZ, PA, MI, WI and Nebraska-2

]

I'll see bazodee and raise: Florida, Texas and Georgia. Not North Carolina. Haven't done the math.

I know, I know. Pretty ambitious. But, I let God know that if this happens I'll be really good from now on. So, I'm feeling pretty good about it.

[earendel]

I wish I could be as hopeful as you all appear to be, but I'm not. I think it will be a close election - close enough that Trump will steal the results through the courts - overturning decisions in Texas and Pennsylvania and having thousands of votes thrown out. I do believe that Biden will prevail in the end, but it will be a long process and there's likely to be violence in the streets.

[wbtravis007]

Here's my prediction (Monday, 6PM EST)

Biden 290
Trump 248

From the 2016 baseline map, here's what changes:
Biden wins AZ, PA, MI, WI and Nebraska-2

]

I'll see bazodee and raise: Florida, Texas and Georgia. Not North Carolina. Haven't done the math.

I know, I know. Pretty ambitious. But, I let God know that if this happens I'll be really good from now on. So, I'm feeling pretty good about it.

Haven’t been able to watch much tonight but will be able to now.

Just thought I’d let y’all know that I just now went ahead and let God know that I’m fine with being really good from now on if we can just go with bazodee and forget about my raise.

So, I’m feeling pretty good about his prediction now.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Just for fun, I looked at the Washington Post tracker.

Adding up the ones they have called for Biden plus the ones they think are trending his way (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, plus the two statewide ones in Maine and District 1), it adds up to 270.
Adding up the ones they have called for Trump plus those trending his way (Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2), it adds up to 268.

As they sang in "Applause," "Fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy night" (or month or two).

[silverscreenselect]

Adding up the ones they have called for Biden plus the ones they think are trending his way (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, plus the two statewide ones in Maine and District 1), it adds up to 270. Adding up the ones they have called for Trump plus those trending his way (Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2), it adds up to 268.

Assuming that holds, you have to wonder what will happen if there's a faithless Biden elector anywhere. In the past, no one has made a big deal about these electors since they were considered meaningless protest votes, but that would change in a big hurry this year.

[Bob78164]

Adding up the ones they have called for Biden plus the ones they think are trending his way (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, plus the two statewide ones in Maine and District 1), it adds up to 270. Adding up the ones they have called for Trump plus those trending his way (Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2), it adds up to 268.

Assuming that holds, you have to wonder what will happen if there's a faithless Biden elector anywhere. In the past, no one has made a big deal about these electors since they were considered meaningless protest votes, but that would change in a big hurry this year.

I'm awfully glad the Supreme Court decided that case on electors. It doesn't eliminate the risk, but it does mitigate it. --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

WaPo has called Wisconsin for Biden [EDIT: Michigan now, also}, and Trump has asked for a recount (that's his right, though recounts seldom move the numbers much, hanging chads notwithstanding).

Mr. Trump has also filed suit to get Michigan and Pennsylvania to stop counting immediately -- in today's counting, his margin has shaved from a lead of about 700k to 350k in the Keystone State. Not sure what his logic is, these are ballots that were legally cast and on premises as the law has allowed.

Georgia looks to be tightening, now that they're starting to tabulate the early/absentee ballots of some Democratic strongholds around Atlanta. Not sure that would make a difference.

And the RNC head says that Nevada and Arizona are still in play, and will cement things for Mr. Trump.

Stay tuned tomorrow, same Bat-time, same Bat-channel!