Fivethirtyeight Election Forecast

[silverscreenselect]

Fivethirtyeight.com has posted its first forecast of the general election. They gave Biden a 71% chance of winning, which means that when they ran hundreds of different simulations of possible outcomes, he won 71% of the time. Ironically, that's the same chance of winning that Hillary Clinton had in the last forecast they posted before the 2016 election. (Since that first forecast, Biden's chances have gone up to 72%.)

However, Nate Silver thinks that Biden is in a better position than Hillary was across the board and in key states. The reason why his odds are the same as hers is because the election is still nearly three months away and his forecast allows some uncertainty for possible game-changing late events. He noted that if the election were to be held tomorrow, his forecast of Biden's chances would be considerably higher (the odds on Barack Obama winning right before the 2012 election were about 92%)

[Bob78164]

Fivethirtyeight.com has posted its first forecast of the general election. They gave Biden a 71% chance of winning, which means that when they ran hundreds of different simulations of possible outcomes, he won 71% of the time. Ironically, that's the same chance of winning that Hillary Clinton had in the last forecast they posted before the 2016 election. (Since that first forecast, Biden's chances have gone up to 72%.)

However, Nate Silver thinks that Biden is in a better position than Hillary was across the board and in key states. The reason why his odds are the same as hers is because the election is still nearly three months away and his forecast allows some uncertainty for possible game-changing late events. He noted that if the election were to be held tomorrow, his forecast of Biden's chances would be considerably higher (the odds on Barack Obama winning right before the 2012 election were about 92%)

They run 40,000 simulations, not hundreds.

And Nate expressly assumes that there will be a good faith effort to allow voters to vote and to count legally cast ballots. Given what's going on with the Postal Service, neither assumption is safe.

This needs to be a landslide. --Bob

[Spock]

Bob#'s>>."Given what's going on with the Postal Service,"<<<<

You might want to check your tinfoil hat. It might be a little loose.

[Bob Juch]

Bob#'s>>."Given what's going on with the Postal Service,"<<<<

You might want to check your tinfoil hat. It might be a little loose.

What's your hat made of? Lead?

[Bob78164]

Bob#'s>>."Given what's going on with the Postal Service,"<<<<

You might want to check your tinfoil hat. It might be a little loose.

If you won't believe me, perhaps you'll believe Donny:

“The items are the post office and the $3.5 billion for mail-in voting,” Trump told Fox Business Network, saying Democrats want to give the post office $25 billion. “If we don’t make the deal, that means they can’t have the money, that means they can’t have universal mail-in voting.”

Then we have Larry Kudlow describing voting rights as part of "liberal left wish lists." Which means, of course, that Republicans are opposed to voting rights."

And then there's this. --Bob

[Spock]

Bob#'s>>."Given what's going on with the Postal Service,"<<<<

You might want to check your tinfoil hat. It might be a little loose.

If you won't believe me, perhaps you'll believe Donny:

“The items are the post office and the $3.5 billion for mail-in voting,” Trump told Fox Business Network, saying Democrats want to give the post office $25 billion. “If we don’t make the deal, that means they can’t have the money, that means they can’t have universal mail-in voting.”

Then we have Larry Kudlow describing voting rights as part of "liberal left wish lists." Which means, of course, that Republicans are opposed to voting rights."

And then there's this. --Bob

Your point being?

[Bob78164]

Bob#'s>>."Given what's going on with the Postal Service,"<<<<

You might want to check your tinfoil hat. It might be a little loose.

If you won't believe me, perhaps you'll believe Donny:

“The items are the post office and the $3.5 billion for mail-in voting,” Trump told Fox Business Network, saying Democrats want to give the post office $25 billion. “If we don’t make the deal, that means they can’t have the money, that means they can’t have universal mail-in voting.”

Then we have Larry Kudlow describing voting rights as part of "liberal left wish lists." Which means, of course, that Republicans are opposed to voting rights."

And then there's this. --Bob

Your point being?

That Donny is deliberately attacking the Postal Service from within in order to render it incapable of being used reliably to vote by mail.

This effort, like so much of what Donny does, is already causing considerable collateral damage. Some parts of Philadelphia have already gone through a three-week period with only one mail delivery in that time. Which is a real problem if you rely on the mail to receive prescriptions, or even to receive and pay your bills. --Bob

[silverscreenselect]

Which is a real problem if you rely on the mail to receive prescriptions, or even to receive and pay your bills. --Bob

Spock and his trusty checkbook would be up fecal creek if his local post office runs into problems.

[silverscreenselect]

That Donny is deliberately attacking the Postal Service from within in order to render it incapable of being used reliably to vote by mail.

This must be a serious problem. Susan Collins just said that she is concerned.

[Bob78164]

The Postal Service has warned 46 states that it can't guarantee delivering ballots on time for a substantial fraction of their residents. Experience is bearing that out. Many states are reporting thousands of voters who were deprived of their franchise by delays in the mail, either because they never received their ballot at all or because their ballot was returned too late to be counted. --Bob

[bazodee]

The Postal Service has warned 46 states that it can't guarantee delivering ballots on time for a substantial fraction of their residents. Experience is bearing that out. Many states are reporting thousands of voters who were deprived of their franchise by delays in the mail, either because they never received their ballot at all or because their ballot was returned too late to be counted. --Bob

Another twist on this was that some states provide a postage paid envelope to return one's ballot, and some post offices chose not to place the cancellation stamp on these envelopes. For those ballots that were received a couple days after election day, the election administrator had no way of proving that they were "postmarked" before end of election day. I believe I read that this was the cause of many ballots being rejected in the recent and interminable New York state primary election.

[Bob Juch]

You know what would drive Mad King Donald crazier? If Amazon offered to help deliver mail-in ballots.

[Bob78164]

You know what would drive Mad King Donald crazier? If Amazon offered to help deliver mail-in ballots.

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

[Bob Juch]

You know what would drive Mad King Donald crazier? If Amazon offered to help deliver mail-in ballots.

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

Probably, but can they win? It's not unlawful anyplace that I know of anyway.

[Bob78164]

You know what would drive Mad King Donald crazier? If Amazon offered to help deliver mail-in ballots.

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

Probably, but can they win? It's not unlawful anyplace that I know of anyway.

Ballot-harvesting is illegal in most states. It was the reason the North Carolina election for a House seat had to be redone.

[Bob Juch]

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

Probably, but can they win? It's not unlawful anyplace that I know of anyway.

Ballot-harvesting is illegal in most states. It was the reason the North Carolina election for a House seat had to be redone.

WHat's illegal is collecting ballots from the same place, such as a nursing home, not transporting a large number of ballots to a collection point.

[SportsFan68]

You know what would drive Mad King Donald crazier? If Amazon offered to help deliver mail-in ballots.

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

Probably, but can they win? It's not unlawful anyplace that I know of anyway.

It's illegal in Colorado. The most ballots one person can turn in is 10. I turned in three in the Primary. I can see a few more asking for my help, but not more than 10 total. I think that's a good number.

[Bob78164]

They'd file a lawsuit claiming it was unlawful ballot-harvesting. --Bob

Probably, but can they win? It's not unlawful anyplace that I know of anyway.

It's illegal in Colorado. The most ballots one person can turn in is 10. I turned in three in the Primary. I can see a few more asking for my help, but not more than 10 total. I think that's a good number.

I think 10 is a fairly common number. California is exceptional in that there are no limits here. Democrats were much more effective than Republicans in their ballot-collecting ground game in 2018. That probably accounts for the size of the blue shift, which flipped a number of House seats between Election Day and the day the counts were certified.

By the way, one of the ways in which Donny is trying to delegitimize the election is by trying to "lock in" the Election Day counts. I really hope the press does a good job educating the public both that the numbers can very well change and that, because Democrats are much more likely than are Republicans to vote by mail and vote late, the shift is likely to be toward Democrats, and that there's nothing at all nefarious about it. --Bob

[Spock]

I get that the Post Office thing is the latest "SQUIRREL!!!!!" for the usual suspects-but considering the post office does 472 million pieces of mail every day-the addition of (possibly) 150 million ballots in and out (maybe 300 million total in and out) spread over many weeks is not really that big of a deal. Early voting starts to chip away at the supposed mountain of ballots pretty early.

It is not like they are re-inventing the wheel here-they do it every day and they do it pretty well.

[silverscreenselect]

It is not like they are re-inventing the wheel here-they do it every day and they do it pretty well.

Except that they haven't been doing it well lately, for all types of mail, which has resulted in widespread complaints and the USPS sending a letter to the various states warning about delays if the Post Office affecting ballots. And then there's this:

They want 3 1/2 billion dollars for, to mail in votes. OK. Universal mail-in ballots. 3 1/2 trillion [sic]. They want 25 billion dollars, billion, for the Post Office. Now they need that money in order to have the Post Office work so that it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots. Now in the meantime, they aren't getting there. By the way, those are just two items, but if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail in voting because they're not equipped to have it.

This isn't following the latest squirrel; it's following a big orange rat who admits to what he wants to do on national television and then has people like you try to explain that he either didn't mean it or won't be able do it when he tries.

[Bob Juch]

I get that the Post Office thing is the latest "SQUIRREL!!!!!" for the usual suspects-but considering the post office does 472 million pieces of mail every day-the addition of (possibly) 150 million ballots in and out (maybe 300 million total in and out) spread over many weeks is not really that big of a deal. Early voting starts to chip away at the supposed mountain of ballots pretty early.

It is not like they are re-inventing the wheel here-they do it every day and they do it pretty well.

You're right. Even with Mad King Donald's henchman kneecapping the USPS, they'll do a pretty good job. I do have to wonder if the removal of the blue steel boxes has followed a pattern of taking them from minority areas. I think they're just blowing smoke to try to get people to not vote at all.

[Bob Juch]

I get that the Post Office thing is the latest "SQUIRREL!!!!!" for the usual suspects-but considering the post office does 472 million pieces of mail every day-the addition of (possibly) 150 million ballots in and out (maybe 300 million total in and out) spread over many weeks is not really that big of a deal. Early voting starts to chip away at the supposed mountain of ballots pretty early.

It is not like they are re-inventing the wheel here-they do it every day, and they do it pretty well.

You're right. Even with Mad King Donald's henchman kneecapping the USPS, they'll do a pretty good job. I do have to wonder if the removal of the blue steel boxes has followed a pattern of taking them from minority areas. I think they're just blowing smoke to try to get people not to vote at all.

Well, I was agreeing until I read how bad the backup in mail is this morning. The cause seems to be that they have forced the mail carriers to start their routes earlier, thus missing the overnight deliveries.

[Bob Juch]

82-year-old Houston-area man left without heart medicine for a week due to USPS delays

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/82-yea ... sps-delays