Revelation 13:5

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Pastor Fireball
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Revelation 13:5

#1 Post by Pastor Fireball » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:44 pm

Drumpf's time has run out.
"[Drumpf's] name alone creates division and anger, whose words inspire dissension and hatred, and can't possibly 'Make America Great Again.'" --Kobe Bryant (1978-2020)

"In times of crisis, the wise build bridges. The foolish build barriers." --Chadwick Boseman (1976-2020)

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Bob Juch
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Re: Revelation 13:5

#2 Post by Bob Juch » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:00 pm

Pastor Fireball wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Drumpf's time has run out.
2 Corinthians 1:14
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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Bob78164
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Re: Revelation 13:5

#3 Post by Bob78164 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:11 pm

The current tipping point state, Pennsylvania, is three points behind the national averages. Donny still has an advantage in the electoral college.

And to repair the damage Donny and his Congressional enablers have wrought, reclaiming the White House won't be enough. We also have to win the Senate. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#4 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:29 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:11 pm
The current tipping point state, Pennsylvania, is three points behind the national averages. Donny still has an advantage in the electoral college.

And to repair the damage Donny and his Congressional enablers have wrought, reclaiming the White House won't be enough. We also have to win the Senate. --Bob
Latest CNBC poll:

Arizona: BIden +7
Florida: Biden +5
Michigan: Biden +5
NC: Biden +7
PA: BIden +6
WI: Biden +8

AZ: Kelly +9
MI: Peters +7
NC: Cunningham +10

There have also been polls out in the last few days showing Jon Ossoff ahead in Georgia and Steve Bullock in MT. And that's not counting ME and CO.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/trump-g ... -poll.html
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Re: Revelation 13:5

#5 Post by Bob78164 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:52 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:29 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:11 pm
The current tipping point state, Pennsylvania, is three points behind the national averages. Donny still has an advantage in the electoral college.

And to repair the damage Donny and his Congressional enablers have wrought, reclaiming the White House won't be enough. We also have to win the Senate. --Bob
Latest CNBC poll:

Arizona: BIden +7
Florida: Biden +5
Michigan: Biden +5
NC: Biden +7
PA: BIden +6
WI: Biden +8

AZ: Kelly +9
MI: Peters +7
NC: Cunningham +10

There have also been polls out in the last few days showing Jon Ossoff ahead in Georgia and Steve Bullock in MT. And that's not counting ME and CO.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/trump-g ... -poll.html
That just means Vice President Biden currently has a big national lead. There's still far too much time between now and the election for things to tighten.

As for the Senate polls, in Nate I trust, and he hasn't yet spoken. I do think Kelly probably has a comfortable lead in Arizona and I think Senator Peters is starting to open a lead in Michigan. I think Cunningham is electable but I also think he's in a tight race, as will be Gideon if she wins the nomination for Maine's Senate seat. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#6 Post by kroxquo » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:26 pm

Just bear in mind that Hilary was ahead by about the same number of points at about the same time. Complacency is not an option.
You live and learn. Or at least you live. - Douglas Adams

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#7 Post by SpacemanSpiff » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:06 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:00 pm
Pastor Fireball wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Drumpf's time has run out.
2 Corinthians 1:14
Is that pronounced "Two Corinthians"?
"If you're dead, you don't have any freedoms at all." - Jason Isbell

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#8 Post by Bob Juch » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:49 pm

SpacemanSpiff wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:06 pm
Bob Juch wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:00 pm
Pastor Fireball wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Drumpf's time has run out.
2 Corinthians 1:14
Is that pronounced "Two Corinthians"?
Yes, two Corinthians walk into a bar...
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

andyrinny2
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Re: Revelation 13:5

#9 Post by andyrinny2 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:33 pm

I believe that the likelihood of a Biden landslide is very, very high. He has a large lead in the polls, including in the 2016 “battleground” states. Biden’s margin over Trump in the polls seems to be increasing. Even in 2016, the polls were largely accurate on the split in the popular vote. Trump’s significant outperformance in 2016 in the electoral college vs. the popular vote was largely fluky and is not likely to repeat to anywhere near the same degree. Much of the public seems to have their minds made up, with only a small percentage of undecideds up for grabs. In some ways, Biden’s being at 50% or higher in various polls may be more significant than the percentage spread between Biden and Trump.

A majority of the voting public seems to favor Biden over Trump on most issues, and on personality. Trump had some effectiveness in 2016 in persuading people that change was needed, and that he was the change. He also had some effectiveness in building on the dislike that much of the public had for Hillary. Trump is much less likely to be effective in 2020 in persuading people either that things are going well or at least on the right track, or that change is again needed and he is again the change. And he is unlikely to have nearly the same traction as in 2016 in getting the public to dislike his opponent.

I have frequently heard in both left-wing and right-wing media that while Biden leads in broad polls, Trump may still win because of an “enthusiasm gap,” i.e., that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic about Trump than Biden supporters are enthusiastic about Biden, and that Trump supporters will therefore turn out in greater proportion on Election Day than as reflected in current polls. I think this analysis misses the mark. First, the motivation for many Biden supporters to vote comes from their intense, motivating dislike for Trump, regardless of their lukewarm view of Biden. Rather than asking prospective voters how enthusiastic they are for their preferred candidate, it could be more pertinent for pollsters to ask them, given that the choice will be Trump vs. Biden, how strongly motivated will you be to vote? Second, in my view, the surprising outcome in 2016 (disappointment for Democrat-leaning/anti-Trump voters, happy surprise for Republican-leaning/pro-Trump voters) is more likely to ward off complacency and spur turnout by Biden supporters than to spur Trump supporters to the polls. I also believe that racial issues are more likely to spur increased turnout by pro-Democrat, anti-Trump minority and young voters (as compared to their turnout in 2016), than to spur increased turnout by pro-Trump voters (as compared to their turnout in 2016).

I also hear that Trump was behind in the polls in 2016, he won anyway doing it his way, and he can do it again. I believe this viewpoint places far too much weight on the small sample size of one election cycle. Kudos to Trump for navigating his way through the 2016 Republican primary field and for winning the 2016 general election. I give these events about zero weight in assessing how well Trump might do in November vs. what the polls are saying now.

We are now four months from Election Day. The coronavirus situation, or prospects for it, could improve significantly. The economy, or prospects for it, could improve significantly. Some issue could emerge out of left field and alter the political landscape, much as coronavirus and the George Floyd killing did. Trump could intentionally or accidentally bring about some other incident or issue that could alter the race. Biden could have a health scare or other incident that could cause many to question his mental or physical capacity or persuade many that voting for him is too risky. (We can count on both Trump and Biden to say many stupid things between now and Election Day.) And it would be helpful to Biden if he or his campaign could come up with a short and clear message as to what he is for, other than “not Trump.” But I do not believe any or all of these issues are likely to derail a Biden landslide.

I'd be interested in people's thoughts about any of my points.

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#10 Post by andyrinny2 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:41 pm

One other variable that could affect the election that I forgot to mention: voting process issues, including how coronavirus may affect people's willingness to go to the polls, how well mail-in balloting will function, and issues of voter suppression and disparate access to polls. Still, I am betting that these issues will not derail the Biden train.

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Re: Revelation 13:5

#11 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:54 pm

andyrinny2 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:33 pm
I also hear that Trump was behind in the polls in 2016, he won anyway doing it his way, and he can do it again. I believe this viewpoint places far too much weight on the small sample size of one election cycle. Kudos to Trump for navigating his way through the 2016 Republican primary field and for winning the 2016 general election. I give these events about zero weight in assessing how well Trump might do in November vs. what the polls are saying now.
There were two reasons that Trump won in 2016. First, he was an unknown quantity. A lot of people didn't like him but were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because of reason number two. Second, he was running against Hillary Clinton, who had accumulated a quarter century of political baggage, enough that the mere mention of anything to do with her set people off. Benghazi, the email, her health "scare," all hung around for much longer than they should have because they all reconfirmed what a lot of people's dug-in feelings about Hillary. The last-minute email surprise which turned out to be nothing was just enough to tilt just enough people.

Biden isn't Hillary. Most people like Joe Biden. Those who don't wouldn't like any Democrat. And while people were willing to entertain the notion about Trump's attacks on Hillary, none of the "scandals" involving Biden have registered. The other problem is Trump himself. He can't hide behind a healthy economy and relatively peaceful world situation that he inherited any more. Unless Trump's "predictions" of a coronavirus miracle happening by election day happen, a lot of people are going to ask themselves if they want four more years of what they've gone through in the last six months.

I do think that Trump and Bill Barr are preparing an October surprise in the form of the special prosecutor Durham's investigation of the FBI. I expect him to issue some indictments sometime between now and the election. However, it will probably be some low-level flunkies who got careless and sloppy in their work (one attorney has already been fired; I expect he'll be facing charges). As far as the higher ups whose names the Republicans love to bandy around, this should prove to be a big nothingburger in October followed by nebulous claims that more indictments might follow in Trump's second term. Do I think that will work? No; the public doesn't want to hear about the Russia investigation any more, and the recent mess involving Putin makes them even less inclined to want to listen to the fantasy conspiracy theories.
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Re: Revelation 13:5

#12 Post by jaybee » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:56 am

Whoever wins in November, get hunkered down for a total shit-storm of whines from our current commander in chief. If Trump wins, we will be assaulted with the rerun BS of busloads of illegal voters crossing state lines that kept his win from being even bigger. Thanks to the already in place set up by Trump, you can be sure that he will tout the 'millions' of illegal mail in votes. And that's if he wins. If he loses, it will be even worse. Come January, there will have to be some serious repair work to the door trim around the oval office after Trump uses it to try to hold on to his presidency.

I think that Andy is spot-on with his thoughts on this although I will remain wary until election day. Trump may be a horrible president, but the guy knows how to work a room. He could still pull off a win.
Jaybee

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