Open Skies Treaty

[Bob78164]

I'm interested in what people, particularly people with national security experience or knowledge, think of the possibility of withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty. --Bob

[earendel]

I'm interested in what people, particularly people with national security experience or knowledge, think of the possibility of withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty. --Bob

I have no national security experience but I think it's another in a long line of bad ideas - withdrawing from arms reduction and confidence-building treaties. As I understand it, the Open Skies Treaty is being abrogated because our elected officials have decided that Russia has violated its terms by refusing to allow overflights of certain areas, including areas that the U.S. doesn't recognize as independent countries (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), or areas such as Crimea and Kaliningrad. They also claim that Russia has committed other violations. Of course I have no way of knowing whether these allegations are true (I suspect they might be) but there are avenues other than withdrawing from the treaty to address these issues. I also know that our European allies are concerned about this, as they are concerned about the other treaties we've left.

[Bob78164]

I'm interested in what people, particularly people with national security experience or knowledge, think of the possibility of withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty. --Bob

I have no national security experience but I think it's another in a long line of bad ideas - withdrawing from arms reduction and confidence-building treaties. As I understand it, the Open Skies Treaty is being abrogated because our elected officials have decided that Russia has violated its terms by refusing to allow overflights of certain areas, including areas that the U.S. doesn't recognize as independent countries (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), or areas such as Crimea and Kaliningrad. They also claim that Russia has committed other violations. Of course I have no way of knowing whether these allegations are true (I suspect they might be) but there are avenues other than withdrawing from the treaty to address these issues. I also know that our European allies are concerned about this, as they are concerned about the other treaties we've left.

My old college roommate has a great deal of professional experience in this area -- enough that he couldn't necessarily tell me all that he knew. His thinking is that this one isn't a big deal because given current technology, there's nothing we can get from the Open Skies Treaty that we can't get other ways. Assuming that's the case (and I trust my old roommate on this), then I don't see any benefit to retaining this particular treaty if Russia is in fact violating it, which I understand (again from my old roommate) to be the case.

The treaty to watch is START. That's clearly a very valuable treaty and there's no evidence that Russia is cheating on it. --Bob

[jarnon]

My old college roommate has a great deal of professional experience in this area -- enough that he couldn't necessarily tell me all that he knew. His thinking is that this one isn't a big deal because given current technology, there's nothing we can get from the Open Skies Treaty that we can't get other ways.

That's my thinking too.

[earendel]

I'm interested in what people, particularly people with national security experience or knowledge, think of the possibility of withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty. --Bob

I have no national security experience but I think it's another in a long line of bad ideas - withdrawing from arms reduction and confidence-building treaties. As I understand it, the Open Skies Treaty is being abrogated because our elected officials have decided that Russia has violated its terms by refusing to allow overflights of certain areas, including areas that the U.S. doesn't recognize as independent countries (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), or areas such as Crimea and Kaliningrad. They also claim that Russia has committed other violations. Of course I have no way of knowing whether these allegations are true (I suspect they might be) but there are avenues other than withdrawing from the treaty to address these issues. I also know that our European allies are concerned about this, as they are concerned about the other treaties we've left.

My old college roommate has a great deal of professional experience in this area -- enough that he couldn't necessarily tell me all that he knew. His thinking is that this one isn't a big deal because given current technology, there's nothing we can get from the Open Skies Treaty that we can't get other ways. Assuming that's the case (and I trust my old roommate on this), then I don't see any benefit to retaining this particular treaty if Russia is in fact violating it, which I understand (again from my old roommate) to be the case.

The treaty to watch is START. That's clearly a very valuable treaty and there's no evidence that Russia is cheating on it. --Bob

I agree regarding START, but disagree regarding OST. Not because I think we can't get the same information by other means, but because it continues a disturbing trend of the U.S. withdrawing from uni- and multi-lateral treaties on the whim of the current administration, usually because they were put in place by his predecessor (such as the Iran nuclear deal). The more we pull out of such commitments, the less likely that other nations will view us as a reliable ally.