WWTBAM Bored

Nate Silver is issuing far more than his normal amount of cautioning, because the state of the Democratic presidential race has so many unknowns and no polling at all since last weekend's major events. However, over the last month, the odds on a hung convention have risen to about 60% (actually down a bit since yesterday). Meanwhile the odds on Biden go up, the odds on Bernie go down, and everyone else is practically at zero (including Bloomberg). For the first time this year, Biden is now favored over Bernie (65-34 to have a plurality of delegates over Bernie at the convention). For what it's worth, here's the current odds on today's elections:

California Bernie 76% chance to win
Texas Biden 55% chance to win
North Carolina Biden 95% chance to win
Virginia BIden 98% chance to win
Massachusetts Bernie 51% chance to win (Warren is second here at 25%)
Minnesota Bernie 53% chance to win (Klobuchar who is still on the ballot second at 24%)
Colorado Bernie 69% chance to win
Tennessee Biden 68% chance to win
Alabama Biden 92% chance to win
Oklahoma 78% chance to win
Arkansas Biden 69% chance to win
Utah Bernie 59% chance to win
Maine Bernie 68% chance to win
Vermont Bernie 99% chance to win
American Samoa Biden/Bernie tied at 36% chance

All the delegates are awarded proportionately at the state and Congressional district level, and a candidate must get at least 15% of the vote in a district or statewide to get delegates. So, Warren and Bloomberg need to hit that 15% mark to get delegates and keep the leading candidate from pulling away. In districts where there's a blowout, there's a chance that one or none of the other candidates may hit the 15% threshold.

Nate got it mostly right. I'm sure if anybody had bet cash money last week on VP Biden coming out ahead in the delegate count after Super Tuesday, they'd be laughing all the way to the bank. The Joementum is real. He won a bunch of delegates in New England--Sanders' and Warren's turf. He actually won Massachusetts and is slightly ahead in Maine with thousands of votes still to count. Minnesota also went to Biden, largely from Sen. Klobuchar's sudden departure from the race and endorsement leading to a big swing in his favor.

And somehow, Bloomberg got 50% in American Samoa and second place in Utah.

Pastor Fireball wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:10 am

And somehow, Bloomberg got 50% in American Samoa.

The local head honcho there endorsed Bloomberg, and it was a caucus. I don't know what he spent, but that had to represent by far the best return on investment in terms of dollars per delegate won for Bloomberg.

Amazingly, Biden didn't campaign or spend significant money in several states, including Virginia, Massachusetts, and Minnesota. His only "advertisements" between the SC primary and Tuesday was the news coverage of events surrounding him and his victory speech in SC.

I've been really aware of Presidential campaigns since 1968 and yesterday was by far the most amazing turnaround I've ever seen.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:46 am

I've been really aware of Presidential campaigns since 1968 and yesterday was by far the most amazing turnaround I've ever seen.

November 8, 2016

Estonut wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:11 pm

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:46 am

I've been really aware of Presidential campaigns since 1968 and yesterday was by far the most amazing turnaround I've ever seen.

November 8, 2016

Wrong again. Most polls just before the 2016 election showed Hillary up by 3-5 points nationally and that's fairly close to the margin by which she won the popular vote. Polls taken before the SC primary showed Bernie Sanders up by 10 points on Biden and he was coming off a 25 point win in Nevada.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:47 pm

Estonut wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:11 pm

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:46 am

I've been really aware of Presidential campaigns since 1968 and yesterday was by far the most amazing turnaround I've ever seen.

November 8, 2016

Wrong again. Most polls just before the 2016 election showed Hillary up by 3-5 points nationally and that's fairly close to the margin by which she won the popular vote. Polls taken before the SC primary showed Bernie Sanders up by 10 points on Biden and he was coming off a 25 point win in Nevada.

1) You originally did not specify that you are talking about a statistical turnaround.
2) You, like Hillary, seem to fail to understand that, according to current election procedures, the popular vote means nothing.
3) I believe that far more people were surprised by Trump beating Hillary on November 8, 2016 than were surprised by Biden taking the lead in a very weak field, especially with the DNC working against Bernie.

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:56 pm

3) I believe that far more people were surprised by Trump beating Hillary on November 8, 2016 than were surprised by Biden taking the lead in a very weak field, especially with the DNC working against Bernie.

What I referred to was the speed with which the race turned around. Admittedly, you don't have that in a general election, but there's no indication that had the election taken place a week earlier, the results would have been significantly different. Here, the turnaround was huge in a very short period of time.

And my comment about the popular vote was a statistical one. National polls register percentages of people who will vote for a particular candidate, not which states they are from. The polls fairly accurately captured the actual spread. What a lot of people didn't take into account was that the spread wouldn't translate into similar results in the Electoral College.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:34 pm

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:56 pm

3) I believe that far more people were surprised by Trump beating Hillary on November 8, 2016 than were surprised by Biden taking the lead in a very weak field, especially with the DNC working against Bernie.

What I referred to was the speed with which the race turned around. Admittedly, you don't have that in a general election, but there's no indication that had the election taken place a week earlier, the results would have been significantly different. Here, the turnaround was huge in a very short period of time.

I seem to recall your side complaining that she lost because of Comey's last-minute announcements.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:34 pm

And my comment about the popular vote was a statistical one. National polls register percentages of people who will vote for a particular candidate, not which states they are from. The polls fairly accurately captured the actual spread. What a lot of people didn't take into account was that the spread wouldn't translate into similar results in the Electoral College.

I read that Bubba took it into account and tried to tell her, but she and her people "knew better" and ignored him.

Fivethirtyeight is back with its first post-Super Tuesday calculations on the race. It now shows Biden with an 87% chance of a majority at the convention, Sanders with 3% and "no one" with 10%.