WWTBAM Bored

All of the networks called California's 21st Congressional District, in the Central Valley (home of Spock's beloved Victor Davis Hanson), for incumbent David Valadao over T.J. Cox. This was the one Romney-Clinton district in California that looked safest for Republicans. On Election Night, Valadao had a 7% lead in the race and the networks all called it for him.

But the late-counted votes have proved to be very Democratic. (And these are all Republican counties -- Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern -- so I assume that the officially non-partisan county officials who are supervising the vote count are Republicans.) Nate Silver is adamant that this race is too close to call. The most recent updates have been ahead of the pace that Cox needs to win the race. And if that happens, assuming Cisneros's lead over Kim in CA 39 continues to grow (it's now over 3000 votes), then California will have flipped all 7 Romney-Clinton districts, reducing the Republican Party to 8 of California's 53 seats in the House. --Bob

I think network algorithms for when to call a race will need to change a bit. As more and more people vote absentee or early, and these votes, in some districts, can be substantially different from the votes cast on election day, the election night totals just might not be as predictive as they used to. How you model the absentee/early vote is very challenging. Each district has its own quirks.