WWTBAM Bored

It's a month into the season, and the Cardinals are in first place. I am a fan, but I don't get to follow them closely. They were supposed to be bad this year, but do you think they can stay in the race?

I have noticed La Russa is still demonstrating his "genius" by batting the pitcher eighth. That must be why they are winning.

elwoodblues wrote:It's a month into the season, and the Cardinals are in first place. I am a fan, but I don't get to follow them closely. They were supposed to be bad this year, but do you think they can stay in the race?

I have noticed La Russa is still demonstrating his "genius" by batting the pitcher eighth. That must be why they are winning.

If you can come up with a rational explanation for why Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, and Joel Pineiro have turned into a mini-second coming of the Braves staff of the 90's, then you have one up on me. Wainwright's a legitimate ace, but these four clowns? This wouldn't happen for any other team in Major League Baseball.... maybe outside of the Braves themselves.

The starters were supposed to be the glaring weakness this year, yet they are about the team's only strength this year. The offense is still sputtering and the bullpen's beginning to come apart again, so if (and probably when) the starters begin to come back down to earth, they will probably end up around .500 again.... which of course means they'll be in the NL Central race at least through September....

Since Wainwright, Lohse and Pineiro are on my fantasy team, that downturn may happen even sooner....

lb13

some sabermetricians agree

Looking at composite No. 8- and No. 9-hitter data over that 10-year period, Ruane determined No. 8 hitters got on base at a .322 clip, compared to a .234 clip for No. 9 hitters. Yet, in innings in which those poor-hitting No. 9 hitters led off, teams averaged 0.519 of a run, 0.05 more than when No. 8 hitters led off.

In fact, that 0.519 average is higher than for any other batters leading off except for the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 slots. This data demonstrates the importance of La Russa's thinking — that having top RBI men available in a row might be more important than the on-base percentage of the leadoff hitter.

Moving a hitter such as Kendall into the No. 9 slot will almost certainly raise that 0.519-run average. However, it follows that this tactic will also reduce the number of runs scored when the Nos. 5, 6 and 7 hitters lead off.

Essentially, the gain in those innings that Kendall leads off is washed out by those innings in which regular No. 6 hitter Corey Hart or No. 7 hitter J.J. Hardy leads off. Furthermore, batting in the No. 9 slot instead of the No. 8 slot means an average of 48 fewer plate appearances a season.

So, in real terms, this quirky move neither helps the team very much (as La Russa and Yost believe it does) nor hurts the team very much (as many pundits have decided without really looking at the data).

However, if these hitters remain in the same slots all season, there might be a real impact on individual contributions. There will be more RBI chances for the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 hitters on the Cardinals and Brewers and fewer runs scored for those teams' Nos. 5, 6 and 7 hitters. The position players in the No. 9 slot will get roughly 30 fewer at-bats than they would have otherwise, but those players are more likely to score runs in that No. 9 slot.

For fantasy baseball purposes, the Cardinals' Cesar Izturis and Aaron Miles would split an incremental increase of about eight to 10 runs from the No. 9 slot, while Kendall would get most of that incremental increase. That additional eight to 10 runs per team would be driven in by a combination of Nos. 1-3 hitters, such as the Cardinals' Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan and Albert Pujols and the Brewers' top-of-the-order hitters Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun (Braun batted third Sunday) and eventually Mike Cameron, who's sitting out the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for a banned stimulant. They would get perhaps an additional three RBI apiece.

Correspondingly, regular No. 6 and No. 7 hitters — such as the Cardinals' Adam Kennedy and Yadier Molina and the Brewers' Hart and Hardy — can expect a drop of about three to five runs scored apiece.

As neat and symmetrical as this all sounds, things are rarely equal. These players likely will not always hit in the same slot in the order, and the team composition is likely to change over the course of the season. The truth is, while these changes could add or subtract a handful of runs scored or RBI for one player slot or another, the difference should end up being negligible for most players.

The lone exception, perhaps, might be for Kendall. If he stays in the No. 9 slot for all of 2008, he could potentially score 10 more runs over the course of the season. That would be a hefty 22% increase over his 2007 total of 45.

I don't have any idea why they are playing so good. It's either we're better than everybody thought, or the other teams are not as good as everybody thought.

As long as they stay in first place it helps me sell tickets, and it brings in more players to my poker games to win free tickets.

Ray